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Friday 5th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices broke our ascending trend line and key support level at 1.20000, where we could see a further downside before prices reach the next support target at 1.16000, which coincides with graphical swing low support level. The daily time frame echoes the same bearish view as well and we could see a further downside below our resistance level at 1.2000, with 1.17500 as the next support target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing our support level at 1.19567, in line with the 61.8% fibonacci extension. We could see a limited push up above this level to test our resistance level at 1.20000, which is also the key resistance level found on the weekly and daily time frame. Keeping in mind the view on the bigger picture remains bearish, a break below our H4 support level at 1.19567 could see a further drop to our next support target at 1.18574, in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 19567 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 20000 resistance level found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Keeping in mind that the view on the weekly and daily time frame suggested a bigger pullback could occur, a break below the H4 support level at 1.38505 could see a further downside in prices before it reaches our next support target at 1.37500, in line with the daily support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 38505 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we can see it testing the support line. On the Daily timeframe, price is holding under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement, if price continues to stay under this level, we may see a  short-term bearish swing towards the trendline support level of 0.76743, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, 127% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support . On H4,  price has closed under the 0.78 major level and Daily resistance level towards the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. We can see that price has broken beneath 0.77565, and reached the target set yesterday at the 0.77 level, in line with trendline support and 127% fibonacci retracement. We may see price push lower towards Daily support at 0.76743 before a short-term pull back towards the Trendline support turned resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows price broken beneath ascending trendline support turned resistance, and may continue its bearish move towards major figure of 0.77
  • Weekly and Daily time frame are still showing bullish momentum.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from the ascending trendline support, facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily timeframe, prices have touched horizontal swing high resistance turned support which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension.  On H4, prices have already passed the daily support level which coincides with 127.2% fibonacci extension. Prices might pull back to the resistance turned support before bouncing higher towards the weekly resistance at 109.850. EMA is also showing a bullish pressure on price.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might pullback to 107.153 which coincides with the resistance turned support level on the daily timeframe
  • 850 might be a possible upside target

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USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price is still attempting to push away from the descending trendline, where it may test its previous low. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price has tapped on to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level before pushing up North towards the descending trendline. We may see a retest of the trendline before price pushes down. And on the H4 timeframe, price has pushed away from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level, and reached the 1.2579 level as expected before showing a 119 pip move up North away from the support level. Currently, we may see price retesting the level of 1.26539, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap before pushing higher towards the 127% fibonacci retracement in line with 1.27 major level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may up towards 1.27 major figure, after retesting level of 6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap
  • Weekly and Daily time frame are showing bearish momentum.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has just shown a strong bullish move up to test the weekly resistance level at 0.93000, which is in line with our 161.8% Fibonacci extension and weekly descending trendline resistance. The daily chart also sees a similar move up north to test the 0.93000 weekly resistance level as it holds above the daily ascending trendline support. The 0.93000 weekly resistance level will be an important level to watch and see if price manages to hold below it.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price broke above the 0.91800 resistance area, in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, and is now testing the 0.93000 weekly resistance level.    We note that the Stochastic indicator is also testing the upper 95.05 resistance level where it has reacted off before. We could potentially see a reversal at the 0.93000 weekly resistance level and a further move down to test the resistance-turned-support area at 0.91800 level. Otherwise, should price fail to hold below the 0.93000 level, we could see potential further bullish momentum as price pushes higher.

Areas of consideration:

  • 93000 weekly resistance level is a key level to watch, which is price is now testing
  • Price might pull back to the 0.91800 resistance-turned-support area as seen on the H4 chart.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price tested and is currently holding above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30695, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price dipped lower and tested key Fibonacci retracement and moving average support at 30695. 30695 daily support level could be a level for buyers to consider adding to their longs. Otherwise, a break and a daily close below 30695 support will see price fall lower towards weekly support at 29568.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely daily support at 30695

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A weekly close above this support level could possibly see a bounce next week. On the daily chart, we see price drifting lower and is currently approaching weekly support at 1670. Like the weekly, a daily close above 1670 could see a bounce reaction next week.

On the 4H timeframe price pushed lower breaking previous supports. With price holding below 21 period EMA, a further push down below 1701 resistance towards weekly support at 1670 could be likely. However, failure to hold below 1701 could see price show a limited rise towards next resistance at 1723.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1670 weekly support is the key level to hold any chance of a deeper drop

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