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Wednesday 24th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices broke our ascending trend line and key support-turned-resistance level at 1.20000, where we could see a further downside before prices reach the next support target at 1.17800, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The daily time frame echoes the same bearish view as well and we could see a further downside below our resistance level at 1.2000, with 1.17800 as the next support target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance level at 1.18760, in line with the graphical resistance where we could see a  further drop below this level to our support target at 1.18341, in line with the graphical swing low support level and 100% fibonacci extension. A break below our support at  1.18341 could see a further push down to test our next support target at 1.17800.

Areas of consideration:

  • 18760 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 17800 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above a key support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.3750, in line with our graphical support area and 78.6% fibonacci retracement where we could see a bounce above this level to our next resistance target at 1.38055. However, keeping in mind that the view on the weekly time frame is still bearish with further downside before prices reach our support at 1.3500, a break below our H4 and daily support at 1.37500 could trigger a further drop to our next support target at 1.35800, in line with the graphical swing low on the H4 time frame.

Areas of consideration:

  • 38055 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 3750 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has broken the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020), and has retested that level.Currently price has pushed away from the trendline resistance and is testing the 38.2% fibonacci retracement taken 2nd Nov (2020) swing low, to 22nd Fed (2021) swing high, if price manages to close beneath we may see a stronger drop towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a complete head and shoulder pattern as price completes the move towards the neckline at 0.76221, where we could expect a further push down. Lastly, on the H4, price managed to hit our target of 0.767 level where the 78.6%, -27% and -61.8% fibonacci retracement confluence are. We may expect to see a further push towards the Weekly and Daily support at 0.75556.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bearish momentum and may find support at 0.75556
  • Daily time frame showed a complete bearish head and shoulder pattern.
  • Weekly time shows price reversed from trendline resistance area.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from ascending trendline support,facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. In the daily time frame, prices are taking support from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. In the H4 time frame, prices seem to face resistance from descending trendline resistance as well as horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might face resistance from 109.264 which is a horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension
  • 117 is a possible downside target

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USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed lower and showed a reversal at 1.23749, where the fibonacci confluences are. Price may return to the descending trend line, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.26565. In the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar move towards the upside where the weekly resistance is in line with daily 100% fibonacci extension level. Lastly, on H4, price has managed to hit both our take profit targets of 1.25279 and 1.25719. We are expecting a retest of the 1.25719 level where it may be our port of call for an upside move towards the daily resistance of 1.26292.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push further up north towards 1.26292.
  • Daily and weekly time frames are both showing short-term bullish momentum.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is showing a continuation of the bullish rise to test the weekly descending trendline and weekly 0.95000 resistance level, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily chart shows a bounce and further rise up above the daily 0.92300 support level, in line with our 78.6% FIbonacci extension. We could potentially see price rise further to test the weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

On the H4 chart, we see that price bounced at the daily 0.92300 support level and is now rising to test the 0.93800 resistance level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. We note that MACD has just crossed above the 0 line, showing bullish pressure in line with our short-term bullish bias. We could potentially see price rise further to test the 0.93800 resistance level, and subsequently the weekly 0.95000 resistance level which is in line with our -27.2% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, should price continue to hold below the 0.93800 resistance, we could see a retest of the daily 0.92300 support level again.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price bounced at 0.92300 daily support and is now rising to test the 0.93800 resistance.
  • The 0.92300 daily support is an important level to watch.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 31190 support and 34600 resistance. Traders should continue watching these two long term levels. On the Daily, we see price pulling back, however technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish momentum. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is coming close to 32148 support. Price is still holding above moving average and the indicator still shows room for further bullish upside. An intraday bounce above 32148 support towards 33590 resistance could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold above 32148 support could see price pullback towards 31190 weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch short term H4 support at 32148

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.  Long term traders should continue to watch these two levels as a break of either will see price swing in that direction. However we note that price is still holding below the long term moving average. On the daily chart, we see price holding below 1774 resistance. A limited push up to test 1774 resistance could be likely. As long as 1774 resistance is not broken, sellers can watch for opportunities to sell on further rise.

On the 4H timeframe, price is testing support at the 1726 support level. With stochastic coming close to testing support where price bounced in the past, we see a low probability bullish scenario whereby a further push up towards weekly and daily resistance at 1774 could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1726 support could see price drop deeper towards 1699 level

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely 1726 support on the H4
  • Short term H4 technical indicators showing room for further upside

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