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Monday 29th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are currently testing our support target at 1.17800, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well and we could see a bounce above our support target at 1.17800.

On the H4 timeframe, prices could see further upside before it reaches our resistance level at 1.18327, in line with the graphical resistance level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Keeping in mind that prices are sitting on a key support level on the daily and weekly time frames, a break above our H4 resistance level at 1.18327 could see a further upside to our next resistance target at 1.18760.

Areas of consideration:

  • 18327 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 17500 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly and daily chart, we can see that prices could see limited downside before it reaches our support area at 1.35000, in line with the graphical support area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.38065 as well, in line with our graphical resistance area and 23.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.37986, in line with our graphical resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension where we could see a further downside below this level to our H4 support target at 1.36800, in line with the graphical swing low support area.

Areas of consideration:

  • 37986 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 36800 support area found on H4 timeframe

 

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is trending under the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020). Currently price has pushed away from the trendline resistance and is testing the 38.2% fibonacci retracement taken 2nd Nov (2020) swing low, to 22nd Fed (2021) swing high, if price manages to close beneath we may potentially see a stronger drop towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level.

On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a complete head and shoulder pattern where we may expect further drop. Lastly, on the H4, price has reversed from a fibonacci confluence level of 0.7645, consisting 127% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension. We may see a push towards the weekly and Daily support level at 0.75556, in line with the previous swing low.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bearish momentum and may find support at 0.75556
  • Daily time frame showed a complete bearish head and shoulder pattern.
  • Weekly time shows price reversed from trendline resistance area.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from ascending trendline support,facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. In the daily time frame, prices are taking support from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.

In the H4 time frame, prices seem to face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down towards support in line with 50% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Stochastics is also showing resistance from 97.92, in line with our analysis that prices might push downwards.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might face resistance from 109.850 which is a horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci retracement
  • 469 possible downside target

 

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USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed lower and showed a reversal at 1.23749, where the fibonacci confluences are. Price seem to be returning to the descending trendline, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.26565. In the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar move towards the upside where the weekly resistance is in line with daily 100% fibonacci extension level.

Lastly, on H4, price has bounced from 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 1.2554, where we saw a further push towards the Daily resistance, in line with 100% fibonacci extension and 127% fibonacci retracement at the level 1.26564.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push further up north from 1.2578 towards 1.26564
  • Daily and weekly time frames are both showing short-term bullish momentum.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF continues to approach the weekly 0.95000 resistance level in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily chart shows a further rise above the daily 0.92300 support level as price approaches the key 0.95000 resistance level. We could potentially see price rise further to test the weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

On the H4 chart, we see that price has broken above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support level. We note that price is now holding above the moving average support, showing bullish pressure in line with our bullish bias. We could potentially see price make a further rise up to test the weekly 0.95000 key resistance level. Otherwise, should price fail to hold above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support, we could see a stronger pullback towards the daily 0.92300 support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price broke above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support.
  • Price could potentially push higher to test the weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 31190 support and 34600 resistance. Traders should continue watching these two long term levels. On the Daily, we see price pulling back, however technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish momentum. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, price tested and bounced above 32148 support and is now holding between 33590 resistance and 32148 support. With price still holding above moving average and the indicator still shows room for further bullish upside, a limited upside push up above 32148 support towards 33590 resistance could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold above 32148 support could see price pullback towards 31190 weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch short term H4 support at 32148
  • Price still holding above moving average on both short term H4 and long term weekly timeframes

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.  Long term traders should continue to watch these two levels as a break of either will see price swing in that direction. However we note that price is still holding below the long term moving average. On the daily chart, we see price drifting sideways whilst holding below 1774 resistance. A limited push down to test 1670 support could be likely. As long as 1774 resistance is not broken, sellers can watch for opportunities to sell on further rise. Otherwise a break above 1774 resistance should see price swing the other way.

On the 4H timeframe, price is testing and holding above 1726 support level. With stochastic reacting above support where price bounced in the past, we still see a low probability bullish scenario whereby a further push up towards weekly and daily resistance at 1774 could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1726 support could see price drop deeper towards 1699 level

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely 1726 support on the H4
  • Short term H4 technical indicators showing room for further upside

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