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Friday 14th May 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22800. On the daily chart, prices are near our resistance area at 1.2200 where we could see a limited upside here.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.20631, in line with our ascending trend line, graphical overlap support and 61.8% retracement where we could see a further upside above this level, with 1.22218 as our next resistance target. Failure to hold above the 1.20631 support could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.19893.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.22218 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  •  1.20631 support area found on H4 time frame

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support at 1.36622 where we could see a further upside above this level to our resistance target at 1.43000, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well where we could see a limited upside above our support level at 1.38000 with 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.39871, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further upside above this level with 1.42200 as our resistance level. Failure to hold above our support level at 1.39871 could see price swing towards our next support target at 1.39230.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.42200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.39871 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price is getting closer to the resistance level at 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of 0.79018. From the daily timeframe, we see that price has created a new swing high and pushed its way back down towards the horizontal swing low level at 0.77014.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, if price pushes from under here, we may see it swing towards the 127% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.76168. If price fails to push down lower, we may see a bounce towards the 0.78000 major level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 is testing the 0.77285 level, may break beneath towards 0.76168
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing price trending between resistances and support area.

 

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USD/JPY:

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and came back to retest the descending trendline resistance and is taking support from the daily support level of 108.425 level. Prices might push up towards 110.978. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 106.916 level which is also in line with 161.8% retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • Price are taking support on 108.904 level on both the daily and weekly timeframe

 

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USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows price breaking below the support level at 1.22647, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. From here, we may see a further drop down towards the horizontal swing low from 11th May (2015).

In the daily time frame, we can see price making a reversal towards the horizontal graphical overlap in line with weekly resistance at 1.22647 where it may show potential reaction from here.

The H4 timeframe we are able to see that price bounced from the 100% fibonacci extension level. And with the recent fibonacci level, we can wait for a short-term bearish move towards the 1.21475 level before pushing further up towards 1.22703, in line with Weekly and daily resistance as well as -61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a break in the strong support level and may return to retest.
  • On H4, price may bounce from 1.21475 towards 1.22703.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89800 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced at the weekly 0.89800 support area, which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and has reacted at the 0.90800 resistance, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. We also note that price is holding below the descending trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud resistance, showing bearish pressure in line with our analysis. In this scenario, we could see price pushing lower to retest the key 0.89800 support. Otherwise, should price break above the 0.90800 resistance, it could swing towards the next resistance level at 0.93200.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89800 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price push lower to retest the key 0.89800 support level.

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price pushed higher, and closed above previous weekly resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price pulled back lower but continues to hold above moving average and also above ascending trendline support. It is possible to see buyers add to their longs above 33555.4 support with upside target at 35970 resistance. Otherwise, price could also swing the other way towards 32180 support.

On the H4, prices have bounced up from the trendline and support which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards 35970 which is the daily resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and -27.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down towards daily support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • Technical indicators across all timeframes confirm bullish momentum
  • Watch daily support 32180

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price pushed higher, closing above previous weekly resistance. We could see renewed bullish pressure this coming week. On the daily, price is still capped below daily descending trendline resistance. Price could see bearish pressure below 1850 resistance. Otherwise, a daily close and break above 1850 could see price push higher towards weekly resistance at 1965. On the H4, price traded sideways and is now holding between 1850 daily resistance and 1850 support. A break of either of this level could see price push higher towards 1867 resistance or drop towards 1800 support. We prefer to remain neutral for now.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1850 resistance level on the H4 time frame
  • 1800 support level on the H4 time frame

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