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Wednesday 19th May 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22900. On the daily chart, prices are holding between weekly resistance at 1.22900 and support at 1.21510.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.21910. Technical indicators are still showing room for further bullish momentum as well. We still see further upside above this level, with 1.22900 as our next resistance target. Failure to hold above the 1.21910 support could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.21510

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.22900 resistance area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support at 1.36622 where we could see a further upside above this level to our resistance target at 1.43000, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well where we could see a limited upside above our support level at 1.38000 with 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.40801, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further upside above this level with 1.42200 as our resistance level. Failure to hold above our support level at 1.40801 could see  price swing towards our next support target at 1.39230.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.42200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.40801 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price approached within touching distance of the resistance level at 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of 0.79018, before pushing away.  From the daily timeframe, we see that price bounced from the horizontal swing low level at 0.77014, in line with the ascending trendline support. Therefore, both Weekly and Daily are showing a slight bullish momentum.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price bounced from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level and as expected, has made its way up towards the 0.78 major level, in line with 61.8%, -27% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap. We can see price reversing from this level, where it may find support at 0.77617, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe, price may reverse from the 0.78 major level, in line with 61.8% and -27% fibonacci retracement, and make its way towards 0.77617.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing price in slight bullish momentum.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and is currently taking support from ascending trendline support. Prices might take support on 108.960 support level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards daily resistance level of 110.978. Ichimoku cloud is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • 108.960 support level on the H4 timeframe
  • 108.425 support level on the daily timeframe

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USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows price breaking below the support level at 1.22647, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. From here, we may see a further drop down towards the horizontal swing low from 11th May (2015).

In the daily time frame, we can see price making a push down towards the horizontal graphical overlap in line with weekly support at 1.20016, in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension.

The H4 timeframe we see that price has broken beneath the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level, we may wait for a retest of this level before price heads lower towards the breaking of 1.20097 support level, in line with Weekly,  Daily support and 127% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a break in the strong support level and may continue its bearish momentum.
  • On H4, price may retest the level of 1.20810 before pushing lower to 1.20097

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89800 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has pushed lower again, and is now retesting the 0.89800 support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. We also note that price is holding below the descending trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud resistance, showing bearish pressure in line with our analysis. In this scenario, a break and close below the 0.89800 support area could see price swing towards the next weekly support at 0.87600. Otherwise, we could see price pullback again to retest the descending trendline and Ichimoku cloud resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89800 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • Price is facing bearish pressure as it holds below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline resistance.
  • A break and close below the 0.89800 weekly support could see price swing towards the next 0.87600 support.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price traded sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price pulled back lower and reacted above moving average and also above ascending trendline support. It is possible to see buyers add to their longs above 33800 support with upside target at 35970 resistance. Otherwise, price could also swing the other way towards 32180 support.

On the H4, prices traded sideways and still holding above moving average support. We see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers could add to their longs with a limited upside push above 33800 support towards 35090 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 should see prices swing the other way towards 32696.

Areas of consideration:

  • Technical indicators across all timeframes confirm bullish momentum

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price pushed higher, closing above previous weekly resistance. We could see renewed bullish pressure this coming week. On the daily, price broke and closed above descending trendline resistance (now support). There is now a greater probability of a bullish scenario above 1850 support with much room towards 1965 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1850 support will see price re-intergrate previous trend. On the H4, price pushed higher, surpassing previous resistances. While technical indicators show room for further bullish momentum, we do not see any good levels which offer a reasonable risk to reward ratio. We continue to watch 1884 resistance and 1845 support. A break and close above or below these levels will see price push in that direction. We also note the divergence forming on H4

Areas of consideration:

  • 1884 resistance level on the H4 time frame
  • 1845 support level on the H4 time frame
  • Divergence forming on H4

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