What To Trade Today: Tuesday 19th October : Technical Outlook and Review
The TRESOR FX daily market analysis covers all key market sectors and is a quick guide to the major economic events that affect the markets. Our daily analysis provides a detailed guide to major market sectors, including a forecast for the session, technical metrics, support & resistance levels, volume balances, and price targets.
DXY:
On the H4 timeframe, prices appear to be consolidating sideways. Prices have to be attracted to our 1st support at 93.652 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences and graphical overlap. However, as technical indicators are showing mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now. Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 94.633 which is a daily resistance
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame,1st resistance at 94.633
- H4 time frame, 1st support at 93.652
- H4 time frame intermediate resistance at 94.121
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XAU/USD (GOLD):
On the H4 chart, prices are consolidating in a triangle. Prices have recently tested the bottom of our ascending trendline support and we would expect a climb towards our 1st resistance at 1785.13 which is a graphical overlap and in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, we would watch our intermediate resistance at 1776.29 for any potential trend reversals before taking any trade. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.
Areas of consideration:
- 4h 1st support at 1750.80
- 4h intermediate resistance at 1776.29
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EUR/USD:
On the H4 chart, price has recently reached first resistance of 1.16319 which is also Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% and Fibonacci projection of 127.2%. Price can then potentially have a short dip back to its first support of 1.15273 which is graphical swing low support and Fibonacci projection level of 78.6%. Our bearish bias is supported by our ichimoku cloud indicator and stochastic as it is near resistance.
Key considerations :
H4 first resistance – 1.16319
H4 first support – 1.15273
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USD/CHF:
On the H4, price is seen to have broken past the ascending trendline support, signifying a bearish momentum. In reference to last week’s analysis, price did indeed move up to the 1st Resistance at price 0.92617, now we can expect price to push further down to the 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection if it passes through the intermediate support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price holding below the Ichimoku cloud and RSI abiding to the descending trendline resistance.
Areas of consideration:
- Watch 1st Support at 0.92028
- Watch 1st Resistance at 0.92617
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GBP/USD:
On the H4 chart, price is near the graphical overlap resistance of 1.37569 which is also our Fibonacci retracement level of 71.8% and Fibonacci projection level of 127.2%. Price can potentially dip back to its first support of 1.36592 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator which shows that it is near resistance level.
H4 first resistance – 1.37569
H4 first support – 1.36592
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USD/JPY
On the H4 timeframe, we can see that price indeed pushed up to the 1st Resistance that we have marked out last week and now we can expect the drop down to the 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line touched the resistance level and dropped.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 1st resistance level 114.493
- H4 1st support level 113.184
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AUD/USD:
On the H4, price is seen to have broken out of the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bullish momentum. Prices have bounced off the 1st support, and broke past the intermediate resistance we were looking at, this shows a further upside confirmation. We can expect the price to push towards the 1st Resistance in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator abiding to the ascending trendline and Ichimoku cloud providing a strong support.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 1st resistance level 0.74672
- H4 1st support level 0.73707
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NZD/USD:
On the H4 timeframe, price is on a bullish momentum. Price could potentially climb higher towards our 1st resistance 0.71690 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We would watch the intermediate support at 0.70824 which is a graphical overlap for any potential trend reversal. Alternatively, prices might dip towards our 1st support at 0.70518. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, intermediate support at 0.70824
- H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.71690
- H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.70518
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USD/CAD:
On the H4, with the existing bearish sentiment where price is moving below the ichimoku and in a downwards trend within the channel, we may expect to see price head for 1st support at 1.23369 which is a horizontal swing low support and possibly even head to 2nd support at 1.22948 in line with the 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and 78.6% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, price may break the channel and head for 1st resistance at 1.24041 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, support at 23369
- H4 time frame, resistance at 24041
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OIL:
On the H4 timeframe, we have a bullish bias which is supported by the ichimoku indicator and the ascending channel. From 1st support at 83.13 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, we may see price head for 1st resistance at 84.59 which is a horizontal overlap resistance and possibly even to 2nd resistance at 88.20 which is our monthly high in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, we may break 1st support structure at 84.59 which is our horizontal overlap support and head for 2ns support at 83.13.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 86.26
- H4 time frame, 1st support of 84.59
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Dow Jones Industrial Average:
On the H4, with the ascending channel and price trading above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias. We are likely to see price head for 1st resistance at 35007 in line with the 127.2%, 161.8 Fibonacci extension along with the 100% Fibonacci projection. This is considering price manages to break the intermediary resistance at 25257 which is a horizontal overlap resistance in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, we may see price head back to 1st support at 35058 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Areas of consideration:
- 4H resistance at 35007
- 4H support at 35058
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