In our last public discourse on Ethereum (ETHUSD) when it hovered around $2,300, we projected a possible correction to approximately $1,950, with a variation of plus or minus $150, before it could ascend to an estimated $4,400. This forecast was dependent on Ethereum’s movement, specifically if it could surpass the high of January 12 without falling below the low of January 23, which would indicate the commencement of a significant upward trajectory.
Subsequently, Ethereum peaked at $4,093 on March 12, then entered a phase of adjustment. In light of this, we’ve refined our analysis based on the Elliot Wave Principle (EWP), maintaining a bullish outlook with an anticipation of Ethereum reaching up to $5,000, with a possible deviation of plus or minus $200.
Technical Analysis:
Our analysis underlines that the journey upwards for Ethereum isn’t concluded. As delineated in our previous assessments, the breakout above the January 12 apex was a pivotal moment for our swing trading members, culminating in a 50% gain before adopting a cautious stance in mid-March. For Ethereum to signify the end of its corrective phase, it must surpass the recent bounce highs, failing which, it is likely in a corrective wave, aiming for an ideal $2,950, with a variance of plus or minus $150, before embarking on the next bullish wave towards $5,000.
Moreover, the current state of technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and CMF hints at a potential downturn, indicating the need for vigilance.
The Bigger Picture:
Expanding our view to Ethereum’s broader market cycle, we observe critical phases that Ethereum needs to navigate to fulfill its potential, supported by a sustained position above the pivotal $2,700 mark. Historically, Ethereum has initiated bearish cycles under specific conditions marked by divergences in RSI and MFI readings. However, the current trend and technical indicator breakout patterns resemble those seen in the bullish phase between 2019-2021, suggesting we might not be nearing a significant market peak just yet.
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