As the world’s leading investment manager and financial market journalist, I am here to provide you with the most up-to-date information on the current rise in gold prices. Gold has reached an impressive USD 2363 per troy ounce, driven by the anticipation of the US employment data for June. This data could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the near future.
Recent economic indicators in the US, such as a contraction in the service sector and weaker-than-expected private sector employment figures from ADP, are painting a dovish picture of the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy moves. This has led to speculation that the Fed may lower interest rates, with market probabilities currently indicating a 73% chance of a rate cut by September.
In addition to domestic factors, ongoing political uncertainties in Europe, particularly in France and the UK, are affecting the EUR exchange rate, which indirectly influences the USD and subsequently impacts gold prices. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Now, let’s dive into the technical analysis of gold (XAUUSD). The market is currently undergoing a correction, with a projected conclusion at the level of 2370.70. Following this correction, we might see a decline towards 2295.00, with a potential break below leading to losses down to 2222.22. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, showing signs of peaking.
On the hourly chart, gold has formed a tight consolidation around 2345.70 and breached the 2366.26 level upward, reaching a local high. A corrective move down to 2345.70 is likely, followed by a potential rise to 2370.70 to complete the current correction phase. Subsequently, the market could be gearing up for a new downtrend, as indicated by the Stochastic oscillator.
Investors and traders should keep a close eye on the upcoming US jobs report, as it has the potential to sway Federal Reserve policy and, consequently, gold prices.
In conclusion, the current rise in gold prices is influenced by a combination of domestic economic indicators, political uncertainties in Europe, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook in the short term, with potential corrections and declines in the near future. Stay tuned for more updates on this dynamic market situation.