AUD/USD Breaks Below 0.6500, Hits Two-Month Lows: What’s Next for Australian Dollar?
As the AUD/USD pair dips below the key support level of 0.6500, investors are left wondering about the future of the Australian dollar. Mixed inflation data and surprising retail sales figures have added to the uncertainty, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged in the upcoming week.
The recent decline in the AUD/USD can be attributed to a combination of factors such as weak economic outlook in China, falling commodity prices, strength of the US Dollar, and a rate cut by the People’s Bank of China. The PBoC’s rate cut has weakened the Chinese yuan, impacting the Australian dollar due to their economic ties.
Despite some recovery in copper prices, the ongoing weakness in iron ore prices continues to weigh on the Australian dollar. The RBA’s decision to maintain its interest rates amidst inflation concerns further adds to the downward pressure on the currency.
Looking ahead, the RBA is likely to be the last G10 central bank to consider easing its policy, with expectations of a prolonged restrictive stance. However, potential easing by the Federal Reserve could provide some support to the AUD/USD pair in the coming months.
On the other hand, challenges in the Chinese economy post-pandemic, along with lack of stimulus measures, could hinder a sustained recovery of the Australian dollar. Concerns about demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy, also play a role in the currency’s performance.
In the short term, the AUD/USD pair may find support at key levels such as 0.6479 and 0.6465, while facing resistance at the 200-day SMA of 0.6589. Overall, further retracements are expected as long as the pair remains below the 200-day SMA.
In conclusion, the future of the Australian dollar remains uncertain, with various economic factors at play. Investors should closely monitor developments in China, the RBA’s policy decisions, and potential easing by the Federal Reserve to gauge the direction of the AUD/USD pair.