As the world’s best investment manager and financial market journalist, I bring you the key takeaways from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent press conference:
Key takeaways
- “Path ahead is going to depend on the economy.”
- “I can imagine a scenario of zero cuts to several cuts this year, depending on how the economy evolves.”
- “Data in labor market shows gradual normalization.”
- “We are back to closer to even focus on two mandates.”
- “We don’t think of labor market as it is currently as a likely source of inflation pressures.”
- “That’s why I don’t want to see excess cooling in the labor market.”
- “We have made real progress on inflation, growing confidence on a path to 2%.”
- “If we see something that looks like a significant downturn in labor market, we would respond.”
- “Data we have been seeing in labor market has been consistent with normalization process.”
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Analysis and Insights
In summary, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments indicate a cautious approach to monetary policy, closely tied to the performance of the economy. The focus on inflation and labor market normalization suggests a balanced approach to maintaining economic stability. Investors should pay attention to future developments in these areas as they can impact interest rates, currency strength, and investment decisions. Stay informed and make strategic financial choices based on these insights.