Discover the potential impact of the upcoming US jobs report on the price of gold. Our in-depth analysis breaks down the historical correlation between Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and gold’s valuation, providing insights for investors.
As the US Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares to release the July jobs report, expectations are for a 175,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls. How will gold react to this data? Our study examines the previous 35 NFP prints to uncover trends and patterns.
Methodology
We analyzed gold price movements at 15 minutes, one hour, and four hours intervals after the NFP release, comparing them to the deviation between actual and expected results. Using data from the FXStreet Economic Calendar, we assessed the market’s reaction to NFP surprises.
Results
Out of the previous 35 NFP releases, there were 9 negative and 26 positive surprises. On average, gold moved up by $6.45 on disappointing prints and declined by $5.43 on strong figures. The correlation coefficients show a slight weakening of gold’s inverse correlation with NFP surprises over time.
Factors such as profit-taking post-release and underlying details of the jobs report, like wage inflation and labor force participation, could be influencing gold’s reaction. Additionally, revisions to previous readings can impact market sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
Stay informed about how the NFP report can affect gold prices and make strategic investment decisions based on historical trends and market dynamics.