As the world’s leading investment manager and financial market expert, I bring you the latest insights on China’s export and import growth. According to UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen, China’s exports saw a fourth consecutive month of growth in July, although the pace unexpectedly slowed. On the other hand, imports rebounded strongly, resulting in a narrowing trade surplus of US$84.65 billion from the record high of $99.05 billion in June.
The Impact of Low Base Effect on Export and Import Growth
Despite the slowed pace, the low base effect is expected to continue supporting both export and import growth in the third quarter of 2024. While there are risks such as a sharper slowdown in global demand and financial market volatility, measures to increase domestic consumption and industrial modernization could boost import demand in the latter half of the year.
Based on year-to-date performance, forecasts for China’s export and import growth in 2024 have been revised to 5.0% (from -4.6% in 2023) and 4.5% (from -5.5% in 2023) respectively, down from previous estimates of 7.0% and 6.0%.
Analysis:
China’s export growth, although slowing in pace, continues to show resilience in the face of global challenges. The rebound in imports signals a potential strengthening of domestic demand and industrial activity. These trends have implications for investors, businesses, and individuals alike, highlighting the importance of staying informed about global economic dynamics and adjusting financial strategies accordingly.