As world markets rebound sharply from recent turbulence, traders are now looking ahead to what’s next after the Bank of Japan’s apology for its role in the recent market ruckus. Japan’s benchmark stock index made an impressive round trip, returning to Friday’s close after a near 5,000 point, 12% swing in just three days. The market recovery was underscored by the BoJ’s influential deputy governor Shinichi Uchida, who emphasized the need to maintain current levels of monetary easing to combat sharp volatility in both domestic and overseas financial markets.
The recent market upheaval was caused by the BoJ’s move puncturing a half trillion dollar yen-funded currency ‘carry trade’, leading to a surge in the yen’s value. However, with volatility subsiding and the fear index of U.S. stock market volatility returning to more stable levels, the market outlook appears more positive. Wall Street is set to continue its recovery, with futures for major indexes showing gains ahead of the bell.
Chinese trade numbers for July also helped calm global growth jitters, with attention now shifting back to earnings season and Federal Reserve rate cut bets. Despite worries about tech stocks, second-quarter earnings remain impressive, with some big winners like Uber beating Wall Street estimates. In interest rate markets, Fed rate cuts are still priced in, with a successful Treasury auction and cheaper 10-year funding compared to last week.
While recession worries linger, the average stock market return after the first Fed rate cut remains positive, even in a recession scenario. European markets saw some turbulence, with Novo Nordisk trimming its profit outlook and concerns rising about competition from Eli Lilly. Political developments also influenced markets, with Kamala Harris campaigning with her VP running mate in Philadelphia.
Key developments to watch for in U.S. markets include US June consumer credit data, a speech by Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn, and corporate earnings from Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, Marathon, and other major companies.
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