The Impact of the US Presidential Campaign on Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin has taken center stage in the US presidential campaign, with recent shifts in Polymarket odds and polling favoring Harris. The original cryptocurrency has been trading in a range, reaching $61,000 before dropping to $58,000.
Bernstein analysts predict that the market will remain range-bound until the election picture becomes clearer, possibly closer to the Presidential debates. They interpret the current sentiment as bullish for Trump and bearish for Harris.
The Trump-led Republican side has been appealing to crypto voters, promising favorable policies and even hinting at a national Bitcoin reserve. On the other hand, while some Democrats have shown support for crypto, the broader community remains cautious amid regulatory challenges.
Polymarket has emerged as the most liquid election market this season, handling over $500 million in bets and capturing more than 80% of the market share. It is seen as providing more accurate signals than traditional polls, reflecting more “skin in the game.”
Since the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris, Polymarket trends have shifted in her favor. Currently, Harris’s odds have surpassed those of Trump by more than 6%. This shift has caused unease in the crypto markets, with Bitcoin struggling to regain its previous highs.
Despite some dismissing the Polymarket odds as a temporary “honeymoon phase,” Bernstein analysts believe that they are reflecting the momentum Harris has gained in recent polls. The true test will come after the Presidential debates in September.
Overall, the US presidential campaign is impacting Bitcoin prices, with investors closely watching the Polymarket odds and their implications for the cryptocurrency market.