Yesterday, the benchmark price for European gas reached its highest level since mid-December at almost EUR 43 per MWh. The price is still being driven by fears of supply shortfalls, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
Prices likely to fall again if gas flows through Ukraine
“If gas continues to flow through Ukraine – which is believed to be the case due to people with knowledge to the matter according to Bloomberg – prices are likely to fall again slightly. Admittedly, further maintenance work is due to be carried out in Norway later this month.”
“However, natural gas storage facilities in the EU are now a good 87% full and the mandatory mark of 90% by 1 November is therefore already within reach. In addition, Asia’s demand for LNG has probably weakened somewhat in the current month and LNG deliveries to Europe have become more attractive again.”
“An easing of the situation on the European gas market should also cause prices in EU emissions trading to fall again somewhat, having briefly risen to almost EUR 74 per ton yesterday as gas became more expensive. However, in view of the stabilisation of production in the energy-intensive sectors, we consider the downside potential to be limited.”
Analysis:
The European gas market has experienced a surge in prices due to supply concerns, but with gas expected to flow through Ukraine and storage facilities nearing full capacity, prices are likely to decrease. This could also impact EU emissions trading prices, which briefly rose as gas prices increased. Overall, the situation is expected to stabilize with limited downside potential for investors and consumers.