Expert Investment Manager’s Analysis: Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Covered short 8/2/24 at 5346.56 = gain 3.18%; Short SPX on 7/31/24 at 5522.30.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Expert Investment Manager’s Insight: Long on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We have achieved over 22% growth this year; SPX is up around 13%. The daily SPY chart above shows the rising trend, with the / ratio also hitting new highs, indicating a potential continuation of the current market rally. With five consecutive days of increases, historical data suggests a high probability of the market being higher within the next 5 days 73% of the time. SPY is likely to test the 560 SPY gap area. Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Last week’s analysis remains relevant for the current market conditions (chart updated for today’s trading), “The daily RSI for the SPY is in the top window. On July 10, the RSI closed at 81.98. RSI levels between 80 and 85 typically do not mark the last high in the SPY, indicating further upward movement in the market.”
An RSI close above 80 is a positive long-term indicator but could temporarily halt the rally in the short term. The current RSI close of 81.98 suggests a potential stall in the rally, which could persist for several weeks.
Comparing current market conditions to historical data, we see similarities to the 2020 market after the Covid crisis.”
The top window shows the daily GDX chart, with the lower window displaying the daily 18-period RSI for the Gold/Silver ratio. Short-term lows in GDX have historically occurred when the RSI for the Silver/Gold ratio drops below 30 (current reading is 29.39).
Weekly and monthly charts continue to signal a buy, while the daily chart indicates positive divergences using the GDX cumulative up-down volume indicator.