Wednesday, August 21, 2024: Comprehensive Technical Analysis and Market Review

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bearish

• Pivot Level: 101.29
  • Supported by the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a potential reversal point.
  • Historically, this level has seen increased buying pressure, which could trigger a bullish bounce.
• 1st Support: 100.60
  • Identified as swing low support, where the price has previously stabilized.
  • Oversold conditions indicated by the RSI could provide additional support.
• 1st Resistance: 102.28
  • This is an overlap resistance, where the price has previously encountered selling pressure.
  • Confluence with the 50-day Moving Average could add to the resistance strength.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 16) at 14:00 – A drop in mortgage applications could weaken the USD, impacting the DXY’s movement.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 1.1122
  • Acts as swing high resistance coupled with the 100% Fibonacci Projection.
  • MACD histogram turning negative could support a bearish move.
• 1st Support: 1.1019
  • Identified as overlap support, where the price has previously found support.
  • Proximity to the 200-day Moving Average strengthens this support.
• 1st Resistance: 1.1251
  • Swing high resistance, where previous attempts to break higher have failed.
  • The Stochastic Oscillator nearing overbought conditions suggests limited upside potential.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• EUR: 10-y Bond Auction at 12:40 – Could impact EUR, especially if yields spike, leading to a potential bearish reaction in EUR/USD.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 159.35
  • Identified as overlap support and 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • RSI holding above 50 indicates bullish momentum.
• 1st Support: 155.86
  • Swing low support with additional confirmation from the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Historical data shows this level has provided strong support during pullbacks.
• 1st Resistance: 163.80
  • Identified as multi-swing high resistance, indicating a key level where price action has reversed in the past.
  • A bearish divergence on the RSI may signal resistance strength.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• JPY: Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Prel at 03:30 – A weaker PMI could bolster EUR/JPY, pushing prices higher towards resistance.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bearish

• Pivot Level: 0.8551
  • Identified as pullback resistance with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • MACD line crossing below the signal line could further validate the bearish outlook.
• 1st Support: 0.8498
  • Overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize.
  • The Bollinger Bands show the price nearing the lower band, indicating potential support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8584
  • Identified as an overlap resistance, marking a historical point of reversal.
  • Stochastic Oscillator showing overbought conditions supports the resistance level.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jul) at 33′ – A higher-than-expected borrowing figure could weaken GBP, impacting EUR/GBP.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 1.3033
  • Acts as a swing high resistance, a level where the price previously faced selling pressure.
  • RSI showing bearish divergence supports a potential downturn.
• 1st Support: 1.2944
  • Identified as overlap support, a key area where the price might find a base.
  • The 50-day Moving Average aligns with this level, enhancing its significance.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3144
  • Influenced by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating potential resistance.
  • The Bollinger Bands suggest that this resistance could be a reversal point if the price reaches the upper band.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: FOMC Minutes at 21:00 – A hawkish tone could strengthen the USD, pushing GBP/USD lower.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 187.94
  • Overlap resistance combined with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a strong support level.
  • RSI holding above 50 indicates ongoing bullish momentum.
• 1st Support: 184.76
  • Identified as overlap support, reinforced by the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Historical price action suggests that this level could act as a robust support zone.
• 1st Resistance: 192.13
  • Multi-swing high resistance coupled with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a critical resistance zone.
  • MACD histogram turning positive supports a potential bullish breakout.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• JPY: National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Jul) at 02:30 – If inflation exceeds expectations, it could pressure JPY, favoring a bullish GBP/JPY scenario.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bearish

• Pivot Level: 0.8502
  • Overlap support reinforced by the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a potential level for a bullish reversal.
  • RSI nearing oversold conditions may trigger a bounce.
• 1st Support: 0.8425
  • Identified as swing low support, a significant level where the price may stabilize.
  • The Bollinger Bands show price nearing the lower band, adding to the support potential.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8620
  • Pullback resistance, a level where the price might encounter selling pressure after an upward correction.
  • MACD nearing the zero line indicates potential resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: 20-Year Bond Auction at 20:00 – High demand for bonds could strengthen USD, pushing USD/CHF higher.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 144.62
  • Pullback support with confluence from the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Projection.
  • RSI above 50 suggests ongoing bullish momentum.
• 1st Support: 141.73
  • Identified as swing low support, a key level where strong buying interest might emerge.
  • Bollinger Bands suggest support near the lower band.
• 1st Resistance: 149.36
  • Identified as swing high resistance, a significant level where selling pressure could increase.
  • Stochastic Oscillator in overbought territory reinforces resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: FOMC Minutes at 21:00 – Hawkish minutes could propel USD/JPY towards the first resistance level.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bearish

• Pivot Level: 1.3602
  • Pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could stage a minor rebound.
  • RSI suggests oversold conditions, supporting a potential bounce.
• 1st Support: 1.3466
  • Identified as pullback support near the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension level.
  • Strong support at this level could see prices stabilize.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3674
  • Identified as overlap resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Bearish Ichimoku Clouds further strengthen this resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• CAD: Industrial Product Price (MoM) (Jul) at 15:30 – A decline could weaken CAD, supporting a bullish USD/CAD scenario.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 0.6752
  • Identified as pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify.
  • RSI and MACD indicators show a potential reversal at this level.
• 1st Support: 0.6701
  • Identified as overlap support, where price could find support.
  • Bollinger Bands show price nearing the lower band, suggesting support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.6790
  • Identified as swing-high resistance, where upward movement could halt.
  • Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• AUD: Judo Bank Composite PMI (Aug) Prel at 02:00 – Weak PMI data could push AUD/USD lower.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 0.6125
  • Identified as pullback support, indicating a potential area for buying interest.
  • RSI indicates potential for a bounce.
• 1st Support: 0.6080
  • Identified as pullback support aligning with 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Strong support level for potential price stabilization.
• 1st Resistance: 0.6167
  • Identified as overlap resistance, indicating a potential barrier.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• NZD: Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) at 01:45 – Strong retail sales could support a bullish NZD/USD scenario.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 41,042.19
  • Identified as pullback resistance, suggesting a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
  • RSI and MACD indicators show a potential reversal at this level.
• 1st Support: 40,475.26
  • Identified as overlap support, suggesting a potential area where price could find support.
  • Bollinger Bands show price nearing the lower band, suggesting support.
• 1st Resistance: 41,352.92
  • Identified as swing-high resistance aligning close to the all-time high.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) at 17:00 – Weaker home sales could pressure US30 lower.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 18,250.70
  • Identified as pullback support, suggesting a potential area for buying interest.
  • RSI indicates potential for a bounce.
• 1st Support: 18,100.70
  • Identified as pullback support aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Strong support level for potential price stabilization.
• 1st Resistance: 18,593.70
  • Identified as pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Prel at 10:15 – Weak PMI could push DE40 lower.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 5,496.71
  • Identified as overlap support aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Strong support level for potential price stabilization.
• 1st Support: 5,402.66
  • Identified as pullback support aligning with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Support level could halt further downward movement.
• 1st Resistance: 5,669.89
  • Identified as swing-high resistance aligning with 127.2% Fibonacci Extension.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) Prel at 16:45 – Weak PMI data could push US500 lower.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Neutral

• Pivot Level: 61,687.65
  • Identified as pullback resistance aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.
• 1st Support: 57,039.06
  • Identified as pullback support, indicating a significant area where price has found support in the past.
  • Support level could halt further downward movement.
• 1st Resistance: 65,483.09
  • Identified as overlap resistance aligning with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: Jackson Hole Symposium at 17:00 – Hawkish comments could pressure BTC/USD lower.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Neutral

• Pivot Level: 2,805.94
  • Identified as overlap resistance aligning with 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.
• 1st Support: 2,523.64
  • Identified as overlap support aligning with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement.
  • Support level could halt further downward movement.
• 1st Resistance: 3,104.48
  • Identified as pullback resistance, indicating a historical barrier.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: Jackson Hole Symposium at 17:00 – Hawkish comments could pressure ETH/USD lower.

Potential Direction: Bullish 📈

Overall Momentum: Bearish

• Pivot Level: 72.61
  • Identified as swing-low support aligning with 100% Fibonacci Projection.
  • Support level could halt further downward movement.
• 1st Support: 70.31
  • Identified as pullback support aligning with 127.2% Fibonacci Extension.
  • Support level could halt further downward movement.
• 1st Resistance: 75.33
  • Identified as overlap resistance, indicating a potential barrier.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 16) at 17:30 – A significant drawdown could support higher WTI prices.

Potential Direction: Bearish 📉

Overall Momentum: Bullish

• Pivot Level: 2,520.00
  • Identified as pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where the price might face selling pressure.
  • RSI nearing overbought territory could trigger a bearish reaction.
• 1st Support: 2,484.16
  • Identified as pullback support, suggesting a key level where the price might find support.
  • Bollinger Bands show price nearing the lower band, suggesting support.
• 1st Resistance: 2,546.50
  • Reinforced by the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a significant resistance level.
  • Resistance level could halt further upward movement.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• USD: Jackson Hole Symposium at 17:00 – Hawkish comments could pressure XAU/USD lower.