Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed 0.42% higher, reaching a new local high of 5,632.68, edging closer to the July 16 record high of 5,669.67. This rally has retraced nearly all the declines that led to the panic selling and the August 5 local low of 5,119.26. The market has slightly extended its advance following a much larger-than-expected revision of annual jobs numbers yesterday. This morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.2% higher, potentially leading to a consolidation phase.
Investor sentiment has improved significantly, with 51.6% of individual investors being bullish, while only 23.7% are bearish. The S&P 500 index remains above the 5,600 level, as shown on the daily chart.
Nasdaq 100 Getting Closer to 20,000
The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.52% yesterday, driven by key stocks like NVDA. The resistance level remains around 20,000. Today, the Nasdaq 100 is likely to open 0.3% higher.
VIX: Higher Despite Gaining Stocks
The VIX, a measure of market fear, has been fluctuating but remains at ‘normal’ levels for the past few months. Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, while a rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns.
Futures Contract Trading Near Highs
The futures contract is accelerating its uptrend, breaking levels like 5,600 and 5,650. The resistance level is at 5,700-5,720. The market may be entering a medium-term consolidation phase.
Conclusion
The stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 nearing record highs. The short-term outlook remains bearish, with a potential correction looming. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.
Here’s the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 index continues to extend its gains, though at a slower pace.
- Today, the market is likely to open slightly higher, but a correction may be looming. Short-term outlook is bearish.
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