Monday, 26th August 2024: Comprehensive Technical Analysis and Trading Signals

Welcome to the market review for Monday, 26th August 2024. This analysis provides insights into the potential movements of major currency pairs, commodities, and indices. Our aim is to help traders identify profitable opportunities by examining key technical indicators and upcoming economic events. Whether you’re looking to trade forex, commodities, or indices, this guide will provide you with the information you need to make informed trading decisions today.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below its pivot level, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 100.83
  
  Supporting Reasons: This level was previously identified as a swing-low support but has been breached, indicating strong bearish momentum.
• 1st Support: 99.77
  
  Supporting Reasons: Marked as a swing-low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, a potential area where buyers could emerge.
• 1st Resistance: 101.51
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting that the price might face selling pressures here.

Economic Events Impacting DXY:

• USD Durable Goods Orders (July): 15:30 – Potential to impact market sentiment if figures are better or worse than expected.
• USD Fed’s Daly Speech: 21:00 – Any unexpected hawkish or dovish comments could influence the dollar’s strength.

EUR/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

The EUR/USD is moving towards its pivot level, with a possible bearish reversal leading to a decline towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 1.1244
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential reversal point where selling pressure could increase.
• 1st Support: 1.1106
  
  Supporting Reasons: Marked as an overlap support, a significant level where the price has found support recently.
• 1st Resistance: 1.1373
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, a historical level where rallies have previously faced selling pressure.

Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD:

• EUR IFO – Business Climate (Aug): Monday, 09:30 – Could affect the Euro based on business sentiment data.
• EUR Gross Domestic Product (Q2): Tuesday, 09:00 – Important data that can influence EUR sentiment depending on economic growth numbers.

EUR/JPY

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

EUR/JPY is poised to potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot, aiming towards the first resistance level.

• Pivot: 160.01
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a possible buying zone.
• 1st Support: 157.73
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, a key level where previous declines have found buyers.
• 1st Resistance: 164.05
  
  Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, a historical level of selling pressure.

Economic Events Impacting EUR/JPY:

• JPY Coincident Index (Jun): Monday, 08:00 – Affects JPY if data shows significant economic shifts.
• EUR Consumer Confidence (Aug): Wednesday, 09:45 – Can influence EUR depending on consumer sentiment results.

EUR/GBP

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

EUR/GBP is likely to see a bearish reaction off the pivot, potentially moving down to the first support level.

• Pivot: 0.8491
  
  Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating potential selling pressure.
• 1st Support: 0.8409
  
  Supporting Reasons: Marked as a pullback support, a level where the price may find stability.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8540
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a possible reversal point.

Economic Events Impacting EUR/GBP:

• GBP Summer Bank Holiday: Monday, All Day – Limited trading volume for GBP due to holiday.
• EUR Gross Domestic Product (Q2): Tuesday, 09:00 – Key data that could shift EUR sentiment based on economic growth.

GBP/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

The GBP/USD is moving towards its pivot level, with a possible bearish reversal leading to a decline towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 1.3262
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, a potential reversal point.
• 1st Support: 1.3135
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, a significant level where price may stabilize after a bearish move.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3404
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, a historical point of selling pressure and potential reversal.

Economic Events Impacting GBP/USD:

• GBP Summer Bank Holiday: Monday, All Day – Reduced market activity due to holiday.
• USD Core PCE Price Index (Q2): Thursday, 15:30 – Key inflation data that could impact USD strength.

GBP/JPY

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

GBP/JPY may experience a bullish bounce off the pivot level, heading towards the first resistance.

• Pivot: 187.96
  
  Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting potential buying interest.
• 1st Support: 183.04
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support, a level where buyers could emerge following a decline.
• 1st Resistance: 191.86
  
  Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance, indicating a potential level for a bullish correction to meet resistance.

Economic Events Impacting GBP/JPY:

• GBP Summer Bank Holiday: Monday, All Day – Limited trading activity for GBP.
• JPY Coincident Index (Jun): Monday, 08:00 – Key economic indicator for JPY.

USD/CHF

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

USD/CHF could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and move towards the first resistance level.

• Pivot: 0.8395
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential buying area.
• 1st Support: 0.8210
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, suggesting strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8550
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, where price may face selling pressure after a bullish move.

Economic Events Impacting USD/CHF:

• CHF Employment Level (QoQ) (Q2): Monday, 09:30 – Can affect CHF based on employment data trends.
• USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul): Monday, 15:30 – Key economic data that could influence USD.

USD/JPY

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

USD/JPY has broken below its pivot level, signaling a bearish continuation towards the first support.

• Pivot: 144.11
  
  Supporting Reasons: Previously identified swing-low support that has been broken due to bearish momentum.
• 1st Support: 140.80
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, a key buying interest area.
• 1st Resistance: 146.30
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, a level where the price might face selling pressure.

Economic Events Impacting USD/JPY:

• JPY Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) (Jul): Tuesday, 02:50 – Can impact JPY based on inflation trends.
• USD Fed’s Waller Speech: Wednesday, 20:15 – Important Fed commentary that could affect USD direction.

USD/CAD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

USD/CAD is trending down towards the pivot, with a possible bullish rebound leading to a rise towards the first resistance level.

• Pivot: 1.3451
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, a possible buying zone where interest may pick up.
• 1st Support: 1.3386
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating strong support potential.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3616
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, a level that may limit further upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting USD/CAD:

• CAD GDP (MoM) (Jun): Friday, 15:30 – Key data for CAD that could influence market sentiment based on economic performance.
• USD Gross Domestic Product (Q2) Prel: Thursday, 15:30 – Crucial data that could impact USD strength.

AUD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

AUD/USD has broken above the pivot level, suggesting a bullish continuation towards the first resistance.

• Pivot: 0.6784
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance that has been breached due to strong bullish momentum.
• 1st Support: 0.6697
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, indicating where the price could stabilize.
• 1st Resistance: 0.6846
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, a potential stopping point for the bullish move.

Economic Events Impacting AUD/USD:

• AUD Construction Work Done (Q2): Wednesday, 04:30 – Can affect AUD based on construction sector performance.
• USD Core PCE Price Index (Q2): Thursday, 15:30 – Key inflation data that could impact USD strength.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

NZD/USD has broken above the pivot level, indicating a bullish continuation towards the first resistance.

• Pivot: 0.6202
  
  Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing-high resistance that has been breached, signaling strong bullish momentum.
• 1st Support: 0.6127
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, suggesting strong support potential.
• 1st Resistance: 0.6339
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligning with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential barrier for further upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting NZD/USD:

• NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (Aug): Thursday, 04:00 – Key indicator for NZD that could influence market sentiment.
• USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul): Thursday, 17:00 – Important data for USD that could affect currency movement.

US30 (DJIA)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

US30 (DJIA) is moving towards the pivot, with a possible bearish reversal leading to a pullback towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 41,275.32
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, suggesting where selling pressure may intensify.
• 1st Support: 40,753.96
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, a potential area where the price may stabilize.
• 1st Resistance: 42,014.15
  
  Supporting Reasons: Resistance aligning with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a significant barrier to upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting US30:

• USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul): Monday, 15:30 – Key data affecting market sentiment based on order volume.
• USD Gross Domestic Product (Q2) Prel: Thursday, 15:30 – Critical economic data influencing market direction.

DE40 (DAX)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

DE40 (DAX) is advancing towards the pivot level, with a potential bearish reversal leading to a pullback towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 18,710.60
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, where selling pressure could increase.
• 1st Support: 18,344.20
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, indicating a level where price might find stability.
• 1st Resistance: 18,873.20
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance near the all-time high, suggesting a significant barrier to further gains.

Economic Events Impacting DE40:

• EUR Consumer Confidence (Aug): Wednesday, 09:45 – Key sentiment indicator for the Eurozone that could affect DAX.
• EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug) Prel: Thursday, 10:00 – Important inflation data that could influence Eurozone equities.

US500 (S&P 500)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

US500 (S&P 500) is heading towards the pivot, with a potential bearish reversal leading to a pullback towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 5,669.89
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance near the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, a potential reversal area.
• 1st Support: 5,564.72
  
  Supporting Reasons: Overlap support, indicating a level where the price could find stability.
• 1st Resistance: 5,860.51
  
  Supporting Reasons: Resistance aligning with a confluence of Fibonacci levels, suggesting a significant barrier to upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting US500:

• USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul): Thursday, 17:00 – Key housing market data that could influence market sentiment.
• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): Friday, 17:00 – Important consumer sentiment data that could affect equity markets.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

BTC/USD is approaching the pivot level, with a potential bearish reversal leading to a decline towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 68,173.09
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, indicating a possible area where selling pressures may increase.
• 1st Support: 58,410.50
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, a level where price has historically found support.
• 1st Resistance: 73,176.19
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, a barrier that could prevent further upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting BTC/USD:

• USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul): Monday, 15:30 – Macro event that could impact Bitcoin if market sentiment shifts.
• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): Friday, 17:00 – Affects overall market risk appetite, influencing Bitcoin movements.

ETH/USD (Ethereum)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

ETH/USD is trending towards the pivot, with a potential bearish reversal leading to a decline towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 2,928.97
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, suggesting a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
• 1st Support: 2,553.98
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, a potential level where the price could stabilize.
• 1st Resistance: 3,316.28
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, a historical barrier that could limit further gains.

Economic Events Impacting ETH/USD:

• USD Core PCE Price Index (Q2): Thursday, 15:30 – Key inflation data that could influence USD, thereby affecting ETH.
• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): Friday, 17:00 – Affects risk sentiment, potentially impacting Ethereum prices.

WTI/USD (Oil)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

WTI/USD is moving towards the pivot with a possible bearish reversal leading to a drop towards the first support level.

• Pivot: 77.50
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligning with multiple Fibonacci levels, a potential area for increased selling pressure.
• 1st Support: 72.95
  
  Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing-low support, indicating a significant support area.
• 1st Resistance: 80.03
  
  Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, a possible barrier to upward movement.

Economic Events Impacting WTI/USD:

• USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 23): Wednesday, 17:30 – Inventory data that could influence oil prices.
• USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Friday, 20:00 – Affects oil supply expectations and could influence WTI prices.

XAU/USD (Gold)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

XAU/USD could see a bearish reaction off the pivot level, potentially moving down to the first support level.

• Pivot: 2,519.19
  
  Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligning with key Fibonacci levels, indicating a level where the price may encounter selling pressures.
• 1st Support: 2,468.69
  
  Supporting Reasons: Overlap support close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a possible stabilization point after a decline.
• 1st Resistance: 2,564.35
  
  Supporting Reasons: Resistance aligning with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level for price resistance if a rally occurs.

Economic Events Impacting XAU/USD:

• USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul): Monday, 15:30 – A key event that could influence gold prices based on market risk sentiment.
• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): Friday, 17:00 – Could affect safe-haven demand for gold.