As the USD/JPY pair fell in response to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks last Friday and extended its decline due to escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah over the weekend, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong maintain a bearish bias for the currency pair.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
According to Cheung and Wong, the bullish momentum on the daily chart has faded, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling. Key support levels for USD/JPY are identified at 142 and 140.40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), while resistance levels are seen at 144.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 low to 2024 high) and 147.20 (21-day moving average). The strategists maintain a bias for a downside play in USD/JPY.
Furthermore, Governor Ueda’s comments in parliament last Friday suggested that Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes are still a possibility, while Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium indicated that the next move for the Federal Reserve could be a rate cut.
Overall, the shift in policies between the Fed and BoJ from divergence to convergence has altered the broader direction for USD/JPY, favoring a downtrend. Additionally, geopolitical concerns, such as the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, could further support the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese yen.
Analysis and Implications
For investors and traders, the ongoing downtrend in USD/JPY presents opportunities for profit through short positions or hedging strategies. The convergence of monetary policies between the Fed and BoJ suggests a continued weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Geopolitical tensions add an element of uncertainty and risk aversion, further supporting the JPY as a safe-haven currency.
It is essential for market participants to closely monitor central bank communications, geopolitical developments, and technical indicators to make informed trading decisions in the volatile forex market. By staying informed and adaptable to changing market conditions, individuals can navigate the currency markets effectively and protect their investments.