After a significant drop in early July, the USD/JPY exchange rate has stabilized within a range recently. UBS analysts predict a gradual decline in the exchange rate, reaching 138 by September 2025.
The bank’s forecasts for USD/JPY include 147 for December 2024, 143 for March 2025, and 140 for June 2025, with a new target of 138 introduced for September 2025.
Several factors contribute to this anticipated downtrend, including speculative positioning in leveraged FX markets and US interest rate market trends. The USD/JPY has also converged with the US-Japan 10-year real yield differential, limiting further downside potential.
UBS highlights potential risks to their forecast, such as upcoming US economic data and the LDP leadership election in Japan. Despite near-term stability, the bank expects a medium-term downtrend for the USD/JPY.
With the Fed expected to continue cutting policy rates and gradual rate hikes from the BoJ, the narrowing of US-Japan yield differentials will likely drag the USD/JPY lower over the medium term.
Analysis:
The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to gradually decline to 138 by September 2025, according to UBS analysts. This forecast is based on factors such as speculative positioning in FX markets, US interest rate trends, and the US-Japan yield differential. Potential risks include upcoming US economic data and the LDP leadership election in Japan. Despite near-term stability, a medium-term downtrend is anticipated for the USD/JPY, driven by central bank policies and yield differentials.