BoE Hawkish Sentiment Drives EUR/GBP Lower as ECB Rate Cut Expectations Rise
The EUR/GBP pair continues its downward trend for the eighth consecutive session, hovering around 0.8410 in early European trading on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is gaining momentum from the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates compared to the European Central Bank (ECB), leading to further pressure on the EUR/GBP cross.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, where he downplayed the impact of inflationary pressures and advised against rushing into additional rate cuts, have bolstered market expectations of a prolonged period of higher rates in the UK. The BoE recently cut rates by 25 basis points to 5% and markets are pricing in further cuts of 40 basis points by year-end.
In contrast, data from Germany and Spain showing a slowdown in inflation has raised speculations of an ECB rate cut, dampening the Euro and weighing on the EUR/GBP pair. Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macroeconomics, sees this as favorable for the ECB, creating an ideal environment for lower rates amid a weakening economy. However, concerns remain about service inflation.
As traders await key economic data releases, including the Eurozone’s HICP estimate for August and July’s Unemployment Rate, the divergence in monetary policy between the BoE and ECB is likely to continue influencing the EUR/GBP exchange rate.
Analysis:
- BoE’s hawkish stance on interest rates supports GBP, pushing EUR/GBP lower.
- ECB’s potential rate cut due to cooling inflation in Eurozone weakens Euro.
- Market volatility expected as economic data releases offer insights into Eurozone’s economic health.