Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, closed August with an 8.73% decrease, aligning with historical trends. However, insights suggest a potential shift for September, traditionally considered a negative month for Bitcoin.
Spot On Chain’s analysis presents five reasons for a possible deviation from the norm. Firstly, negative Augusts may pave the way for a positive September. Additionally, major selling pressures have eased, long-term holders remain steadfast, Bitcoin ETFs could drive buying momentum, and favorable market conditions may support a September rally.
Breaking Down the Analysis
Spot On Chain’s research delves into historical data, revealing that while September typically sees a decline, past trends show that nearly 43% of negative Augusts are followed by a positive September. With Bitcoin’s recent dip in August, there’s potential for a rebound in September.
The analysis also highlights a significant decrease in selling pressure for Bitcoin. Major entities have offloaded substantial amounts of BTC, but recent actions indicate limited near-term selling risk. Long-term holders have increased their holdings, now accounting for 75% of the total supply, which could provide support during market fluctuations.
Furthermore, the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates in September may drive demand for assets like BTC or Bitcoin ETFs. Other factors, such as FTX’s cash repayments to creditors and favorable regulations, could inject liquidity into the market.
Overall, while September has historically been challenging for Bitcoin, the current market dynamics suggest a potential shift this year. Investors should monitor these key factors to gauge the market’s direction in the coming month.