USD Inches Higher Near Two-Week High Ahead of Crucial Economic Data
By Ankur Banerjee
The dollar edged higher and remained close to a two-week peak on Tuesday as investors awaited a barrage of economic data, including Friday’s U.S. payrolls, which could impact the potential size of an anticipated interest rate reduction from the Federal Reserve.
The euro slipped 0.16% to $1.1055, not far from its recent two-week low of $1.1042, while the pound dipped 0.17% to $1.3124.
The DXY, which gauges the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.11% to 101.77, just below the two-week high of 101.79 it hit on Monday. The index had declined by 2.2% in August on speculations of U.S. rate cuts.
Investors’ attention this week will be firmly fixed on the U.S. payrolls data scheduled for release on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated last month that interest rate cuts could be on the horizon in response to concerns about the labor market.
Prior to that, job openings data on Wednesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday will be under the spotlight.
Markets are currently pricing in a 69% likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) cut when the Fed convenes on Sept. 17-18, with a 31% probability of a 50-bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
This week’s deluge of labor-related data will be pivotal in settling the debate between a 25- or 50-bps cut in September, noted Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.
Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate the addition of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in the previous month.
Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman’s global head of market strategy, remarked that last week’s data confirmed the existing market sentiment. “The U.S. economic growth continues to be robust, driven by strong consumption, even as disinflation persists.”
Data from Friday indicated that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, climbed by 0.2% in July, in line with economists’ projections, reinforcing the U.S. central bank’s path towards rate cuts.
“We are currently in a Goldilocks moment, and therefore, we maintain our belief that the Fed will commence rate cuts this month in a gradual manner,” Thin stated in a note.
Market expectations, however, point to a total of 100 bps in cuts across the remaining three meetings this year.
Ten-year Treasury yields remained relatively stable at 3.915% as trading resumed in Asia following a U.S. holiday on Monday.
Elsewhere, the yen traded at 146.50 per dollar, up 0.3% on the day but still near the recent two-week low of 147.16 reached on Monday.
Analysts suggested that the yen’s movements were likely a correction of Monday’s drop when U.S. markets were closed, resulting in thin liquidity and abrupt fluctuations.
The Australian dollar slid 0.8 to $0.6737, ahead of the gross domestic product (GDP) report due on Wednesday, following a 3.5% climb in August. The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.75% to $0.61875, after surging by 5% last month.
Analysis: The current state of the U.S. dollar, influenced by upcoming economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, poses significant implications for global markets and individual investors. Understanding the impact of these developments on various currencies, such as the euro, pound, yen, and Australian and New Zealand dollars, is crucial for making informed financial decisions. As market dynamics continue to evolve based on economic indicators and central bank policies, staying informed and adapting investment strategies accordingly becomes paramount for maximizing returns and managing risks.