September is often considered the most challenging month for the stock market, with various economic, psychological, and strategic factors contributing to this trend. Let’s take a deep dive into the historical data to understand why.
September’s Historical Performance
Throughout history, September has seen significant volatility, especially during times like the Great Depression and World War II. From 1928 to 1950, the S&P 500 posted an average return of approximately -0.5% in September, closing lower about 60% of the time.
Even in the post-war economic boom, September did not fare well. The trend continued with an average monthly return of -0.3% and a decline rate of 55% between 1950 and recent decades.
Fast forward to recent years, and September has maintained its negative performance, with the S&P 500 averaging a -0.4% return. Since 2000, September has closed in the red about 52% of the time, with an average monthly return trend of -1.1%.
From 1928 to 2022, September has the most negative average return compared to other months. The S&P 500 saw positive returns in September only 40% of the time, making it statistically the worst-performing month of the year.
Why Does the Market Struggle in September?
Several factors contribute to the market’s struggles in September. After summer vacations, investors often rebalance portfolios, leading to increased selling and market declines. Anticipation of third-quarter results and planning for the year’s final quarter can also heighten volatility.
Institutional investors adjust their portfolios at the end of the third quarter, leading to more selling. Uncertainty around earnings announcements and upcoming monetary decisions in October can further contribute to September’s volatility.
Key central bank meetings, such as the Federal Reserve’s in September, can impact market volatility, with initial rate cuts potentially not being market-friendly.
The “Sell in May and Go Away” strategy often sees investors returning to the market in September, creating initial turbulence and bearish pressures.
From 1950 to 2022, September had a closing decline rate of 57%, with an average return of about -0.7% and a standard deviation of 5.1%, highlighting the higher volatility of September compared to other months.
What You Should Do
While September may be a tough month for the stock market, it presents an opportunity to refine your strategy. Here’s how to navigate potential rough waters:
- Diversify: Spreading investments can reduce risk and soften the impact during downturns.
- Play Defense: Consider investing in less cyclical sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
- Watch for Fundamentals: Look for stocks with strong fundamentals for long-term value.
Conclusion
September’s track record may not be stellar, but it’s essential to focus on building strategies that capture market returns, withstand tough times, and support your long-term goals. By diversifying, playing defense, and focusing on fundamentals, you can navigate the challenges of September and beyond.