Today, all eyes are on the National Bank of Poland (NBP) meeting, the only event on the CEE calendar. As a top investment manager, I anticipate that rates will remain unchanged at 5.75%, in line with market expectations. However, the real focus will be on Governor Glapiński’s press conference tomorrow, where we may gain insight into the future direction of monetary policy.
Governor Glapiński’s Shifting Policy Stance
Governor Glapiński has recently made headlines with his hawkish statements, suggesting that rates could stay unchanged until 2026. However, there are signs that the Council may be open to discussing rate cuts sooner than expected. Our economists predict the first cut to come in the second quarter of 2025, with the potential for further cuts next year.
Market sentiment is more dovish, with the first rate cut already priced in for January. However, any hints of a more dovish policy stance from the governor could lead to further market adjustments. While FX markets may have experienced some volatility recently, the long-term outlook remains positive for the CEE region.
Analysis: What Does This Mean for You?
For the average investor, the NBP meeting could have implications for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. If rates are cut earlier than expected, it could impact borrowing costs and investment decisions. Keeping an eye on Governor Glapiński’s statements and market reactions can help you stay informed and make informed financial choices.