Russia’s Economy Ministry Upgrades 2024 Export Sales Forecast for Oil and Gas by $17.4 Billion
By Darya Korsunskaya
In a recent document seen by Reuters, Russia’s economy ministry has increased its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas by $17.4 billion to $239.7 billion. This upward revision is due to a more positive price outlook for these key revenue sources.
The improved expectations for Russia’s oil and gas business highlight the resilience of the country’s economy in the face of unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West over its conflict with Ukraine. Despite efforts to limit oil prices and restrict imports, Russia’s exports are projected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons (4.8 million barrels per day) in 2024, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023.
The ministry also anticipates that the average price of Russian oil sold for export will increase to $70 per barrel this year, up from $64.5 in 2023. This forecast exceeds the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Western countries. Additionally, price revisions have been made for sales in both Europe and China.
With Russia diversifying its trade partners and increasing business with China and India, the country is expected to see higher revenues from oil and gas exports. Earning nearly $240 billion in 2024 would represent a $13 billion increase from 2023. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to $236.5 billion.
However, the economy ministry has revised down expectations for oil production, with output projected to decline to 521.3 million tons in 2024 from 529.6 million tons in 2023. The overall volume of energy exports is also expected to decrease. Despite plans to increase gas output, oil production is forecasted to continue declining in the coming years.
As Russia plays a role in OPEC-led efforts to stabilize the oil market, the country’s energy sector faces challenges in maintaining production levels. The ministry’s updated estimates reflect a downward trend in oil production, with further declines expected in the future.
