Introduction
Welcome to your daily technical analysis for Friday, September 6th, 2024. Today’s in-depth market review and forex trading signals will help guide you through the best trading opportunities across major assets, including currency pairs, indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Our comprehensive outlook includes pivot levels, key support and resistance zones, and overall momentum trends to ensure you make informed trading decisions today.
Key Economic Events for September 6th, 2024
- 08:00 JPY: Coincident Index (Jul) Prel – Expected: 117.1 (Previous: 113.2)
Impact: This is a broad indicator of current economic activity in Japan. If higher than expected, JPY may strengthen. - 09:00 EUR: Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) – Expected: -5.3% (Previous: -3.7%)
Impact: A sharp decline in Eurozone industrial production could weaken the EUR, impacting EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/GBP. - 09:00 GBP: Halifax House Prices (MoM) (Aug) – Expected: 0.2% (Previous: 0.9%)
Impact: Rising house prices indicate economic strength in the UK, which could support the GBP. - 15:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) – Expected: 160K (Previous: 114K)
Impact: A critical indicator of US economic health. A lower-than-expected figure may weaken the USD, while a strong number could bolster it. - 15:30 CAD: Net Change in Employment (Aug) – Expected: 26.5K (Previous: -2.8K)
Impact: Employment data in Canada will influence CAD-related pairs, particularly USD/CAD.
1. DXY (US Dollar Index)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting bearish momentum. It is trading below the pivot point at 2505.56, indicating potential downward pressure. If the bearish sentiment continues, the price may drop to the 1st support at 2472.86, where a key overlap support resides. On the upside, the 1st resistance at 2530.26 could limit any short-term rallies.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The price is currently below the 50% retracement level.
- 200-period SMA: DXY is trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average, suggesting longer-term bearish momentum.
- Pivot: 2505.56
- 1st Support: 2472.86
- 1st Resistance: 2530.26
Economic Impact: Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (15:30) will be critical. A lower-than-expected print could weaken the USD further, potentially pushing DXY towards the 1st support level. A better-than-expected reading could provide temporary relief for the index.
2. EUR/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
EUR/USD is set for a bullish continuation as it trades above the pivot at 1.1072. The 1st resistance at 1.1150, which aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, is the target. If the pair pulls back, the 1st support at 1.1021 could act as a safety net for buyers.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The price is approaching the 78.60% retracement, a key level.
- RSI (14): RSI is above 50, confirming bullish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is trading above the 200-SMA, which signals a long-term uptrend.
- Pivot: 1.1072
- 1st Support: 1.1021
- 1st Resistance: 1.1150
Economic Impact: Eurozone Industrial Production (09:00) and US Nonfarm Payrolls will be critical. Weak industrial data from the Eurozone could hinder EUR’s upward momentum, while a weak US payroll report could further fuel bullish sentiment in EUR/USD.
3. EUR/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The EUR/JPY is facing selling pressure as it approaches the pivot level at 160.34. A pullback is likely toward the 1st support at 158.90. Resistance at 161.98 could cap any upward move if buyers attempt to recover from current levels.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.20% Fibonacci level aligns with the pivot.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The pair is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bearish sentiment.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic is below 20, signaling that the pair is oversold and may see short-term support.
- Pivot: 160.34
- 1st Support: 158.90
- 1st Resistance: 161.98
Economic Impact: Coincident Index in Japan (08:00) could support JPY if it surprises to the upside, further pressuring EUR/JPY to test support levels. Eurozone industrial data may also affect the pair.
4. EUR/GBP
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
EUR/GBP is set for a potential bearish move as the pair trades near the pivot at 0.8453. A drop toward the 1st support at 0.8384 seems likely. The pair faces 1st resistance at 0.8490, where selling pressure could increase.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 23.60% Fibonacci level aligns with the pivot.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 signals bearish momentum.
- MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, confirming downward momentum.
- Pivot: 0.8453
- 1st Support: 0.8384
- 1st Resistance: 0.8490
Economic Impact: The Halifax House Prices (09:00) report from the UK could support GBP, pushing the pair lower if house prices increase more than expected. Weak Eurozone industrial data could also fuel the bearish trend.
5. GBP/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
GBP/USD is trading above the pivot at 1.3148, showing bullish momentum. The pair is likely to head toward the 1st resistance at 1.3226. Support lies at 1.3117, where buyers may re-enter the market if the price pulls back.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.60% retracement level aligns with the 1st resistance.
- RSI (14): RSI above 50 confirms bullish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is trading above the 200-SMA, confirming the bullish trend.
- Pivot: 1.3148
- 1st Support: 1.3117
- 1st Resistance: 1.3226
Economic Impact: Halifax House Prices could boost GBP if the data shows continued growth in housing. The US Nonfarm Payrolls later today will also determine GBP/USD’s direction.
6. GBP/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
GBP/JPY remains bullish, with price trading above the pivot at 184.72. The pair may continue to rise toward the 1st resistance at 186.20, while 1st support at 183.50 provides a cushion for any potential pullbacks.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.60% retracement supports resistance at 186.20.
- RSI (14): RSI is approaching 70, indicating overbought conditions but confirming the bullish trend.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The pair is trading well above the cloud, indicating strong bullish momentum.
- Pivot: 184.72
- 1st Support: 183.50
- 1st Resistance: 186.20
Economic Impact: The strength of the yen will be influenced by Japan’s Coincident Index (08:00). A strong yen could cap GBP/JPY’s bullish run, but if the GBP remains strong, the pair may head for new highs.
7. USD/CHF
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The USD/CHF pair is poised for further decline, with price testing the pivot at 0.8455. The 1st support at 0.8405 is the next downside target, while resistance at 0.8528 could cap any short-term gains.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 38.20% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic is below 20, indicating oversold conditions but confirming bearish momentum.
- MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, suggesting continued downward momentum.
- Pivot: 0.8455
- 1st Support: 0.8405
- 1st Resistance: 0.8528
Economic Impact: Swiss foreign currency reserves (17:00) may influence CHF, particularly if reserves rise significantly. US Nonfarm Payrolls could also dictate USD/CHF’s next move.
8. USD/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
USD/JPY is under pressure, trading near the pivot level of 143.89. A break below this level could push the pair toward the 1st support at 142.23, while 1st resistance at 145.34 may serve as a short-term cap for upward moves.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the cloud, indicating bearish momentum.
- RSI (14): RSI is near 40, confirming a bearish bias.
- Pivot: 143.89
- 1st Support: 142.23
- 1st Resistance: 145.34
Economic Impact: Japan’s Coincident Index could boost JPY strength, driving USD/JPY lower. Meanwhile, US Nonfarm Payrolls will add volatility to the pair, with lower employment numbers pushing the pair down further.
9. USD/CAD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
USD/CAD is set to continue its downward move as it trades below the pivot at 1.3504. The pair is likely to test the 1st support at 1.3441, with 1st resistance at 1.3560 providing resistance if the pair tries to recover.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 38.20% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- RSI (14): RSI is below 50, confirming bearish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is below the 200-SMA, signaling long-term bearish sentiment.
- Pivot: 1.3504
- 1st Support: 1.3441
- 1st Resistance: 1.3560
Economic Impact: Canada’s Net Change in Employment (15:30) will play a major role in determining USD/CAD’s direction. If Canadian employment data is better than expected, the pair could drop further.
10. AUD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
AUD/USD is expected to decline further, with price testing the pivot level of 0.6753. The 1st support at 0.6687 is the next target for sellers, while 1st resistance at 0.6796 may limit any upward corrections.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- MACD: MACD line is below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum.
- RSI (14): RSI is below 50, confirming the bearish bias.
- Pivot: 0.6753
- 1st Support: 0.6687
- 1st Resistance: 0.6796
Economic Impact: The Australian dollar may be influenced by global risk sentiment, particularly as US Nonfarm Payrolls data is released. A weak US dollar could provide temporary relief to AUD.
11. NZD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The NZD/USD pair is showing bearish momentum as it trades below the pivot at 0.6234. The price may fall toward the 1st support at 0.6163, while resistance stands at 0.6272.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the cloud, signaling bearish sentiment.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 confirms the bearish trend.
- Pivot: 0.6234
- 1st Support: 0.6163
- 1st Resistance: 0.6272
Economic Impact: US Nonfarm Payrolls data will likely have a major impact on NZD/USD. A weak US dollar could provide support for the kiwi, but overall risk sentiment remains bearish.
12. US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The Dow Jones (US30) is trading below its pivot at 40878.77, suggesting continued bearish momentum. The 1st support at 40457.18 could be tested next, while 1st resistance at 41243.10 may limit any short-term rallies.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 38.20% Fibonacci retracement supports resistance.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 confirms bearish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is trading below the 200-SMA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.
- Pivot: 40878.77
- 1st Support: 40457.18
- 1st Resistance: 41243.10
Economic Impact: US Nonfarm Payrolls will be the key driver for the Dow today. A weaker-than-expected print could push the index lower.
13. DE40 (DAX)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The DAX (DE40) is trading with a bearish outlook, as price remains below the pivot level of 18713.85. The 1st support at 18267.06 is the next downside target, while 1st resistance at 18971.60 could cap any recovery attempts.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 38.20% retracement aligns with the pivot.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 signals bearish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is trading below the 200-SMA, confirming the longer-term downtrend.
- Pivot: 18713.85
- 1st Support: 18267.06
- 1st Resistance: 18971.60
Economic Impact: Weak Eurozone data, including Industrial Production (09:00), could push the DAX lower as concerns over economic health grow.
14. US500 (S&P 500)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
The S&P 500 (US500) remains under bearish pressure, trading below the pivot level at 5560.55. The next downside target is the 1st support at 5417.10, while 1st resistance at 5653.04 may limit any bullish attempts.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 38.20% Fibonacci retracement aligns with resistance.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 confirms bearish momentum.
- 200-period SMA: Price is below the 200-SMA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.
- Pivot: 5560.55
- 1st Support: 5417.10
- 1st Resistance: 5653.04
Economic Impact: Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls will dictate the S&P 500’s direction. A weak report could push the index lower, while a stronger figure may temporarily halt the downward momentum.
15. BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
BTC/USD is facing bearish pressure, trading below the pivot at 57267.99. The pair is likely to test the 1st support at 55638.25, while resistance at 58435.24 may provide a ceiling for any upside.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% Fibonacci level aligns with resistance.
- MACD: MACD line is below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum.
- RSI (14): RSI below 50 suggests continued bearish pressure.
- Pivot: 57267.99
- 1st Support: 55638.25
- 1st Resistance: 58435.24
Economic Impact: Bitcoin may continue to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as US Nonfarm Payrolls and general risk sentiment.
16. ETH/USD (Ethereum)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
ETH/USD is in a bearish trend, with the price trading below the pivot level of 3422.56. The 1st support at 2336.96 is the next downside target, while resistance stands at 2536.29.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% retracement supports resistance.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The pair is trading below the cloud, indicating bearish momentum.
- MACD: MACD line is below the signal line, confirming a bearish outlook.
- Pivot: 3422.56
- 1st Support: 2336.96
- 1st Resistance: 2536.29
Economic Impact: Ethereum could remain under pressure due to risk-off sentiment driven by US economic data.
17. WTI/USD (Oil)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
WTI Crude Oil is showing bullish momentum as it bounces from the pivot at 68.74. The next target is the 1st resistance at 72.58, while 1st support at 67.71 will serve as a key level for buyers.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% retracement aligns with support.
- RSI (14): RSI above 50 confirms bullish momentum.
- MACD: MACD line is above the signal line, supporting the bullish trend.
- Pivot: 68.74
- 1st Support: 67.71
- 1st Resistance: 72.58
Economic Impact: Today’s Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count could influence oil prices, particularly if there are unexpected changes in US oil production levels.
18. XAU/USD (Gold)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
XAU/USD (Gold) is trading with bullish momentum above the pivot at 2504.56. The next target is the 1st resistance at 2530.26, while 1st support at 2472.86 could provide buying opportunities if the price pulls back.
- Indicators Used:
- Fibonacci Retracement: 50% retracement aligns with support.
- RSI (14): RSI above 50 confirms bullish momentum.
- MACD: MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend.
- Pivot: 2504.56
- 1st Support: 2472.86
- 1st Resistance: 2530.26
Economic Impact: US Nonfarm Payrolls data may drive demand for gold, particularly if the numbers disappoint, as gold is typically seen as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty.
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