The GBP/USD pair is maintaining its upward bias but faces difficulty in surpassing the key resistance level at 1.3200, with the year-to-date high of 1.3266 on the horizon.
If there is a pullback below 1.3150, the pair might test support at 1.3087, followed by potential further downside towards 1.3044 and the 50-DMA at 1.2925.
Traders are uncertain about the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting, with varying expectations of a 50-bps or 25-bps cut.
GBP/USD Seesaws Amidst US Jobs Data Impact
During the North American session, the GBP/USD pair experienced volatility due to softer US jobs data, leading to uncertainty among investors regarding the Fed’s rate cut decision. The pair is currently trading at 1.3172, remaining relatively stable.
Following the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, expectations for a Fed rate cut fluctuated. Traders adjusted their probabilities, with a current 43% chance for a 50-bps cut and a 57% chance for a 25-bps cut.
Technical Outlook for GBP/USD Price Forecast
Despite the upward bias in the GBP/USD pair, it struggled to surpass the YTD peak of 1.3266, leading to a dip below 1.3200 after reaching a high of 1.3239. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates fading buying momentum, suggesting a potential pullback in the pair’s price.
If the GBP/USD retreats below 1.3150, it could find support at 1.3087, followed by 1.3044 and the 50-DMA at 1.2925. On the other hand, a break above 1.3200 could lead to a challenge of the YTD high at 1.3266.
British Pound Price Today
The table below displays the percentage changes of the British Pound (GBP) against major currencies. Today, the British Pound showed strength against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.20% | -0.64% | 0.29% | 0.59% | 0.38% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.08% | -0.76% | 0.18% | 0.49% | 0.23% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | -0.08% | -0.83% | 0.14% | 0.41% | 0.17% | -0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.64% | 0.76% | 0.83% | 0.95% | 1.20% | 0.96% | 0.53% | |
| CAD | -0.29% | -0.18% | -0.14% | -0.95% | 0.29% | 0.09% | -0.47% | |
| AUD | -0.59% | -0.49% | -0.41% | -1.20% | -0.29% | -0.23% | -0.71% | |
| NZD | -0.38% | -0.23% | -0.17% | -0.96% | -0.09% | 0.23% | -0.44% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.31% | -0.53% | 0.47% | 0.71% | 0.44% |
The heat map above illustrates the percentage changes of major currencies against each other, providing valuable insights for currency traders.
Analysis and Conclusion
In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.3200 and struggles to surpass the YTD high of 1.3266. Traders are uncertain about the Fed’s rate cut decision, with fluctuating expectations. From a technical perspective, a pullback below 1.3150 could lead to further downside towards 1.3087 and 1.3044. On the other hand, a break above 1.3200 could pave the way for a challenge of the YTD high at 1.3266. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for traders and investors to make informed decisions in the forex market.