Discover the latest insights from OPEC’s monthly report on global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025. Find out why OPEC has revised its forecasts and what this means for the future of the oil market.
By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 reflecting data received so far this year and also trimmed its expectation for next year, marking the producer group’s second consecutive downward revision.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 2.11 million bpd it expected last month.
There is a wider than usual split between forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over China and more broadly over the pace of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels. The reduction still leaves OPEC at the top end of industry estimates.
“Looking ahead, China’s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,” OPEC said in the report.
“However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward.”
OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.
Analysis:
OPEC’s downward revision of global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025 signals a potential shift in the oil market dynamics. The impact of China’s economic growth and the adoption of cleaner fuels on oil demand are key factors to watch. Investors and consumers should stay informed about these developments to make well-informed decisions regarding their finances and energy consumption.