Introduction:
In today’s market outlook, we provide in-depth technical analysis across major assets, including currencies, indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. This analysis is based on key indicators such as Fibonacci levels, support and resistance, chart patterns, and technical setups, complemented by insights from the economic calendar that can affect price movements. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or new to the markets, this guide will help you identify the best trading opportunities and strategies to navigate today’s volatile landscape.
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| Asset | Direction | Pivot | 1st Support | 1st Resistance | Trading Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 📉 Bearish | 102.14 | 101.11 | 102.93 | Sell on pivot break |
| EUR/USD | 📈 Bullish | 1.1021 | 1.0943 | 1.1103 | Buy on pivot retest |
| GBP/USD | 📈 Bullish | 1.30236 | 1.2942 | 1.3102 | Buy on pivot retest |
| USD/JPY | 📉 Bearish | 143.66 | 141.67 | 145.46 | Sell on resistance |
| BTC/USD (Bitcoin) | 📉 Bearish | 57,286.93 | 53,477.38 | 60,782.67 | Sell on resistance |
| ETH/USD (Ethereum) | 📉 Bearish | 2,457.10 | 2,204.57 | 2,568.26 | Sell on resistance |
| WTI/USD (Crude Oil) | 📉 Bearish | 70.54 | 68.13 | 72.61 | Sell on pivot break |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | 📉 Bearish | 2504 | 2477.49 | 2526.68 | Sell on pivot break |
DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 102.14
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support at 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension. Expect strong selling pressure here.
- Indicators: RSI shows potential overbought conditions, indicating downside risk.
- Chart Pattern: Head and Shoulders, a classic bearish reversal pattern.
- 1st Support: 101.11
- Overlap support level, likely to attract buyers.
- 1st Resistance: 102.93
- Pullback resistance. A strong level to watch for potential short trades.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell if the price retests 102.14 and shows rejection signs (bearish engulfing candlestick). Target 101.11 with a stop above 102.93.
Economic Event:
- USD: NFIB Business Optimism Index (13:00 GMT). A negative surprise may accelerate DXY’s bearish trend, supporting further downside.
EUR/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bullish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 1.1021
- Overlap support aligned with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
- Indicators: MACD bullish crossover, signaling upward momentum; RSI is neutral, giving room for further upward movement.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bullish Engulfing at the pivot, confirming buying interest.
- 1st Support: 1.0943
- Strong Fibonacci confluence area at 61.80% retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 1.1103
- Pullback resistance. Monitor for profit-taking at this level.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Buy on a retest of 1.1021 with a target of 1.1103. Set stop loss below 1.0943.
Economic Events:
- EUR: CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (09:00 GMT). A higher inflation print can fuel further EUR strength.
EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish but improving.
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 157.55
- Swing low support zone, likely to trigger a bullish reaction.
- Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversold conditions.
- Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge, signaling a potential breakout upwards.
- 1st Support: 155.90
- Multi-swing low support.
- 1st Resistance: 160.41
- Resistance aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Look for buy signals near 157.55, targeting 160.41. Set a stop below 155.90.
Economic Events:
- JPY: Machine Tool Orders (09:00 GMT). Weak data could weigh on JPY, supporting EUR/JPY’s bullish outlook.
EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 0.8490
- Pullback resistance, reinforced by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
- Indicators: MACD turning negative; RSI trending lower.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Harami near the pivot, indicating potential further downside.
- 1st Support: 0.8409
- Multi-swing low support zone.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8543
- Resistance backed by 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell on any retest of the pivot at 0.8490. Target 0.8409 with a stop above 0.8543.
Economic Events:
- GBP: Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate (09:00 GMT). Positive data could push EUR/GBP lower, aligning with the bearish outlook.
GBP/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bullish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 1.30236
- Aligned with 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, providing solid support.
- Indicators: RSI showing upward momentum; MACD in bullish territory.
- Candlestick Pattern: Morning Star pattern, indicating reversal potential.
- 1st Support: 1.2942
- Pullback support.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3102
- Overlap resistance.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Buy on a pullback to 1.30236. Target 1.3102 with a stop below 1.2942.
Economic Events:
- GBP: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (09:00 GMT). Strong data can reinforce the bullish outlook for GBP/USD.
GBP/JPY
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish (below Ichimoku cloud)
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 187.95
- Aligned with 23.60% Fibonacci retracement.
- Indicators: Bearish Ichimoku cloud, confirming downtrend; RSI nearing overbought.
- Candlestick Pattern: Shooting Star at resistance.
- 1st Support: 184.79
- Overlap support zone.
- 1st Resistance: 189.77
- Resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell near 187.95 targeting 184.79. Stop above 189.77.
Economic Events:
- JPY: Weak machine tool orders could support further downside in GBP/JPY.
USD/CHF
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish, but signs of recovery.
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 0.8392
- Multi-swing low support.
- Indicators: Bullish MACD divergence, signaling potential upward momentum.
- Chart Pattern: Double Bottom, signaling a potential trend reversal.
- 1st Support: 0.8304
- Aligned with 61.80% Fibonacci projection and 161.80% extension.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8549
- Overlap resistance at 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Look for bullish confirmation at 0.8392. Target 0.8549 with a stop below 0.8304.
USD/JPY
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 143.66
- Overlap resistance aligned with 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
- Indicators: Bearish RSI; Stochastic nearing overbought levels.
- Chart Pattern: Double Top near resistance, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
- 1st Support: 141.67
- Swing low support.
- 1st Resistance: 145.46
- Overlap resistance.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Look for bearish confirmation near 143.66, targeting 141.67. Stop above 145.46.
USD/CAD
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Neutral
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 1.3616
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligned close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This suggests that if the price rises towards this level, selling pressures are likely to intensify.
- Indicators: RSI is neutral, but Stochastic Oscillator shows potential overbought conditions, favoring a reversal at the pivot.
- Chart Pattern: Double Top pattern formation may be in play, signaling potential downside if price reverses from the pivot.
- 1st Support: 1.3493
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support, suggesting this level has historically seen buyer interest and could act as a floor for price action.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3699
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Watch for potential selling pressure if the price moves higher.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell near the pivot at 1.3616 with a target of 1.3493. Place stop loss above the 1st resistance at 1.3699.
AUD/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish, with potential for a bullish bounce
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 0.6640
- Supporting Reasons: Identified as pullback support aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating the potential for a rebound from this level.
- Indicators: MACD is neutral but RSI is close to oversold, suggesting room for a bullish recovery.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bullish Engulfing pattern forming near the pivot, indicating buying strength.
- 1st Support: 0.6582
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, making this a key support level to watch.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6752
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance where price might encounter selling pressure.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Buy near the pivot at 0.6640, targeting the 1st resistance at 0.6752. Stop loss below 0.6582.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish, but bullish potential from support levels
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 0.6124
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating buying interests could emerge here for a minor rebound.
- Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversold conditions, favoring a bounce.
- Chart Pattern: Potential Morning Star pattern at support, indicating a bullish reversal.
- 1st Support: 0.6077
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support close to 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it an important area for buyers to defend.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6234
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance where price may face selling pressure if it moves higher.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Setup: Buy near the pivot at 0.6124 with a target of 0.6234. Stop loss below 0.6077.
US30 (DJIA)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 41,056.42
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong selling pressure may arise at this level.
- Indicators: RSI shows weakening momentum, MACD is in bearish territory.
- Chart Pattern: Bearish Flag formation, suggesting continuation lower after a potential retracement to the pivot.
- 1st Support: 40,202.56
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support where price has previously found support.
- 1st Resistance: 41,590.34
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance, likely to limit any further upward movement.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell near the pivot at 41,056.42 with a target of 40,202.56. Stop loss above 41,590.34.
DE40 (DAX)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 18,546.80
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting potential for selling pressures.
- Indicators: MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum.
- Chart Pattern: Bearish Rising Wedge, signaling potential downside continuation.
- 1st Support: 18,244.50
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing-low support, where the price has historically bounced back.
- 1st Resistance: 18,753.45
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, likely to halt upward movement.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell near 18,546.80 with a target of 18,244.50. Stop above 18,753.45.
US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 5,534.10
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating selling pressures could intensify.
- Indicators: RSI and MACD both show bearish momentum continuing.
- Chart Pattern: Double Top near resistance, suggesting further downside if price fails to break higher.
- 1st Support: 5,385.30
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support aligned with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 5,650.40
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing-high resistance, where selling pressure could intensify.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Sell near 5,534.10 with a target of 5,385.30. Stop above 5,650.40.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 57,286.93
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price reversal is expected here.
- Indicators: MACD shows bearish divergence, and RSI is trending lower, signaling potential for further downside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing pattern near resistance, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
- 1st Support: 53,477.38
- Key swing-low support zone where buying interest may emerge.
- 1st Resistance: 60,782.67
- Swing-high resistance aligned with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, where further selling pressure may arise.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Look for short opportunities if the price tests 57,286.93 and shows rejection. Target 53,477.38 with a stop above 60,782.67.
Market Correlation:
- Bitcoin often trades inversely to the US Dollar Index (DXY). As DXY weakens, BTC/USD could see temporary support. However, the overall bearish momentum suggests further downside.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 2,457.10
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance, near 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area for selling pressure.
- Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions; MACD is showing signs of bearish divergence.
- Chart Pattern: Evening Star, a bearish reversal pattern, near resistance.
- 1st Support: 2,204.57
- Swing-low support where price has historically found strong support.
- 1st Resistance: 2,568.26
- Resistance level aligned with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Short Ethereum near 2,457.10 on signs of rejection. Target 2,204.57, with a stop above 2,568.26.
Market Correlation:
- Ethereum often follows Bitcoin’s price movements. A continued bearish trend in Bitcoin could drag Ethereum lower, while weakness in the DXY could provide temporary relief.
WTI/USD (Crude Oil)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 70.54
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligned with 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong selling pressure around this level.
- Indicators: MACD is bearish, and RSI is near overbought territory, suggesting downside risk.
- Chart Pattern: Bearish Flag, a continuation pattern, signals further declines if broken.
- 1st Support: 68.13
- Multi-swing low support zone where price might find temporary support.
- 1st Resistance: 72.61
- Overlap resistance where selling pressure may intensify.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Look for short opportunities around 70.54. Target 68.13 with a stop above 72.61.
Economic Event:
- USD: OPEC Monthly Report (15:00 GMT). Any updates on oil production levels can directly affect oil prices, with any increase in supply putting downward pressure on WTI.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
- Chart Momentum: Bearish
Technical Setup:
- Pivot: 2504
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracement, where price might face selling pressure.
- Indicators: RSI signals a potential overbought condition, while MACD remains bearish.
- Chart Pattern: Bearish Pennant, indicating continuation to the downside after the breakout.
- 1st Support: 2477.49
- Overlap support where buyers may try to prevent further declines.
- 1st Resistance: 2526.68
- Multi-swing high resistance, aligned with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, likely to cap any upward move.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Setup: Consider short positions near 2504, targeting 2477.49. Stop above 2526.68.
Economic Event:
USD: Fed’s Barr Speech (17:00 GMT). Hawkish remarks could support USD, exerting further downward pressure on gold. Stop above 60,782.67.
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