Today’s financial markets present a multitude of opportunities, driven by economic data releases and technical setups. In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll review the potential price movements for key forex pairs, commodities, and indices based on trading strategies, technical indicators, and fundamental analysis. By understanding the interplay between economic calendar events and technical setups, you’ll be better positioned to execute high-probability trades.
Let’s dive into the key assets to trade today, the strategies used, and how upcoming economic events could impact these markets.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 102.14
- 1st Support: 100.91 (Fibonacci confluence at 61.8% retracement, showing strong support).
- 1st Resistance: 102.93 (Pullback resistance).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading within a bearish setup, showing potential to drop towards the first support. The 102.14 pivot, combined with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicates selling pressure may continue.
Economic Calendar Impact
The CPI data (released at 15:30 today) is critical for the dollar. Lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a sell-off in USD, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Historically, CPI releases cause significant volatility in DXY, making this an essential event for traders. The index also correlates inversely with major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, meaning significant moves in the dollar can impact these currencies.
EUR/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bullish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 1.1021
- 1st Support: 1.0943 (Fibonacci retracement at 61.8%, indicating strong buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 1.1103
EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum, with price likely to bounce off the 1.1021 pivot and head towards 1.1103 resistance. This pair benefits from the weakening USD, particularly as the CPI report today could push EUR/USD higher.
Fundamental Analysis
With ECB’s bond auction and Eurozone inflation data on the horizon, these events will provide critical data on the health of the Eurozone economy. A successful bond auction could strengthen the euro, further supporting the bullish outlook. Furthermore, EUR/USD is negatively correlated with DXY, meaning any weakness in the US dollar could push this pair higher.
EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 157.55
- 1st Support: 155.24 (Swing low support at 61.8% Fibonacci projection).
- 1st Resistance: 160.26
EUR/JPY continues its bearish trend, indicating a move towards the 155.24 support level. The 61.8% Fibonacci projection reinforces the likelihood of this bearish continuation.
Upcoming Events
The ECB monetary policy statement (due Thursday) will likely weigh on EUR sentiment, and weak manufacturing data from Japan could add to the pair’s volatility. Japanese bond yields and foreign investment numbers will also play a crucial role in determining JPY strength this week.
EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 0.8453
- 1st Support: 0.8409 (Swing low support, key level to watch).
- 1st Resistance: 0.8485
EUR/GBP shows bearish signals, with price action expected to drop toward the 0.8409 support level. The RSI also confirms oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bearish move.
Fundamental Drivers
The UK GDP data (due today at 19:00) will heavily influence GBP pairs. If GDP beats expectations, it could push EUR/GBP lower as GBP gains strength. Additionally, manufacturing data could strengthen GBP, making this a key event for traders of this pair.
GBP/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bullish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 1.30236
- 1st Support: 1.2942 (Key pullback support).
- 1st Resistance: 1.3102
GBP/USD remains bullish, especially as it looks to rebound from its pivot. The pair has found strong support around 1.2942, and traders can watch for potential long opportunities.
Economic Calendar
The UK releases several significant reports today, including the Goods Trade Balance, GDP (MoM), and Manufacturing Production. Positive results from these releases could push GBP higher, making this a key time for traders to monitor this pair.
Daily Trading Signals – 11th September 2024
| Asset | Direction | 1st Support | 1st Resistance | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 🔴 Bearish | 100.91 (Fibonacci Support) | 102.93 (Pullback Resistance) | Bearish momentum could drive further declines. |
| EUR/USD | 🟢 Bullish | 1.0943 (Fibonacci Confluence) | 1.1103 (Resistance Level) | Potential bounce expected, targeting resistance. |
| EUR/JPY | 🔴 Bearish | 155.24 (Swing Low Support) | 160.26 (Resistance Level) | Bearish continuation likely toward support. |
| EUR/GBP | 🔴 Bearish | 0.8409 (Swing Low) | 0.8485 (Pullback Resistance) | Potential downside continuation from pivot. |
| GBP/USD | 🟢 Bullish | 1.2942 (Pullback Support) | 1.3102 (Overlap Resistance) | Bullish move expected toward resistance. |
GBP/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 187.95
- 1st Support: 183.11 (Swing low support).
- 1st Resistance: 189.77
GBP/JPY remains in a bearish trend, with price expected to test support at 183.11.
Fundamental Analysis
The UK 10-year bond auction and GDP releases will likely weigh heavily on GBP/JPY. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report from Japan, released tomorrow, could increase JPY volatility. As Japan’s inflation expectations rise, it may strengthen the yen, reinforcing the bearish outlook for this pair.
USD/CHF
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 0.8392
- 1st Support: 0.8304 (Fibonacci projection at 61.8% and 161.8% extension, suggesting strong support).
- 1st Resistance: 0.8549 (Overlap resistance aligned with Fibonacci retracement at 38.2%).
USD/CHF shows potential for a bullish bounce despite overall bearish momentum. Price is likely to rebound from multi-swing low support at 0.8392.
Fundamental Analysis
The US inflation data today (CPI) will play a key role in determining the USD’s movement against CHF. A lower-than-expected inflation number could spark a sell-off in the USD, but a stronger-than-expected figure could lead to a bullish bounce, reinforcing support levels.
Correlations
USD/CHF typically moves inversely to EUR/USD and has a close correlation with DXY. If DXY weakens due to lower inflation data, expect USD/CHF to struggle. Conversely, CHF often strengthens during risk-off sentiment, which should be monitored if global uncertainty rises.
USD/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 143.66
- 1st Support: 140.65 (Fibonacci extension at 161.8%, indicating a strong support area).
- 1st Resistance: 145.46 (Overlap resistance suggesting potential selling pressure).
USD/JPY remains bearish, with price likely to head toward 140.65 support. The pair is heavily impacted by both US inflation data and Japanese bond yields.
Fundamental Analysis
The BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (Japan), scheduled for Thursday, is key. Strong Japanese manufacturing data could support the yen, driving USD/JPY lower. Coupled with today’s US CPI report, traders should be cautious of potential volatility.
Correlations
USD/JPY often correlates positively with US Treasury yields. When yields fall, JPY typically strengthens, pushing the pair lower. Monitor US bond auctions for signals, as lower yields could fuel yen strength.
USD/CAD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Neutral
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 1.3616
- 1st Support: 1.3493 (Swing-low support offering strong buying potential).
- 1st Resistance: 1.3699 (Overlap resistance aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 50%).
USD/CAD shows potential for a bearish continuation as price tests the pivot and could head towards 1.3493 support.
Fundamental Analysis
Today’s US CPI data will likely be the driving factor for USD/CAD, as inflation affects interest rate expectations. Furthermore, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report (17:30 today) could influence CAD, as Canada’s economy is closely tied to oil prices. A decline in US oil inventories could push oil prices higher, strengthening CAD.
Correlations
USD/CAD often correlates inversely with crude oil prices. Higher oil prices tend to benefit CAD, pushing USD/CAD lower.
AUD/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 0.6640
- 1st Support: 0.6582 (Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracement, offering potential buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 0.6752 (Resistance level aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 61.8%).
AUD/USD shows potential for a bullish rebound off the pivot. Price may attempt to rise towards 0.6752 resistance if buying interest builds.
Fundamental Analysis
The CPI expectations data from Australia (Thursday) will provide critical insights into inflation trends, influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, China’s M2 Money Supply and New Loans data today will influence AUD, given Australia’s economic reliance on Chinese demand.
Correlations
AUD/USD is heavily correlated with commodities, particularly iron ore and gold. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, watch for Chinese economic data to determine future AUD strength.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 0.6124
- 1st Support: 0.6077 (Fibonacci retracement at 50%, indicating potential buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 0.6234 (Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
NZD/USD could see a bullish bounce off the 0.6124 pivot level, with potential to move towards 0.6234 resistance if momentum builds.
Fundamental Analysis
NZD Electronic Card Sales (Thursday) and Food Price Index data are key indicators for New Zealand’s retail sector. These reports will give insight into domestic consumption, which could drive NZD volatility. The US CPI data will also heavily influence NZD, as the USD dominates this pair.
Correlations
NZD/USD tends to correlate with global risk sentiment. If risk appetite improves, expect NZD to strengthen.
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 40,202.56
- 1st Support: 39,944.51 (Key pullback support aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 50%).
- 1st Resistance: 41,056.42 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and resistance zone).
The US30 (DJIA) is poised for a bullish bounce off its pivot, with room to rise towards the 41,056.42 resistance. If buying pressure builds, this index could see a short-term rally.
Fundamental Analysis
The upcoming US CPI report is critical for the Dow. Higher inflation could dampen equities as it might signal further tightening from the Federal Reserve, while lower inflation could spur a rally. Additionally, the US 10-Year Note Auction at 20:00 will affect yields, influencing market sentiment.
Correlations
US30 correlates with the S&P 500 and broader US economic data. If US economic indicators show strength, expect a boost to the Dow.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 58,128.56
- 1st Support: 53,477.38 (Swing-low support indicating strong buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 60,782.67 (Swing-high resistance aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 61.8%).
BTC/USD remains bearish, with potential to drop toward the 53,477.38 support level. If price holds above this level, a bullish rebound could occur.
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin has recently been driven by broader macroeconomic factors, including rising inflation and interest rate hikes. The US CPI data today could influence Bitcoin prices, as lower inflation may encourage risk-on sentiment, benefiting cryptocurrencies.
Correlations
BTC/USD is closely correlated with global risk appetite and equities. When risk sentiment improves, Bitcoin tends to rally, while during risk-off periods, BTC typically declines.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 2,390.43
- 1st Support: 2,204.57 (Swing-low support indicating a key buying area).
- 1st Resistance: 2,536.45 (Swing-high resistance aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 61.8%).
ETH/USD continues to show bearish momentum. A potential drop toward 2,204.57 support could lead to a bounce.
Fundamental Analysis
Ethereum’s price is influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions and the ongoing development of ETH 2.0. The US inflation report could spur demand for riskier assets like ETH if inflation comes in lower than expected.
Correlations
ETH tends to correlate with other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and global tech stocks. Any significant movements in BTC or the NASDAQ can affect ETH/USD.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 68.13
- 1st Support: 66.04 (Swing-low support offering potential buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 70.62 (Resistance aligning with Fibonacci retracement at 38.2%).
WTI shows bearish momentum, andWTI/USD (Crude Oil)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 68.13
- 1st Support: 66.04 (Swing-low support with potential buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 70.62 (Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
WTI Crude Oil is showing bearish momentum, signaling a potential drop towards the 66.04 support level. Oil prices have been heavily impacted by oversupply concerns, and prices could see a bounce if key support holds.
Fundamental Analysis
The EIA Crude Oil Inventory report (released today at 17:30) is the key fundamental driver for oil. A larger-than-expected draw in inventories could support prices, while a surplus would likely reinforce the bearish momentum. Additionally, geopolitical tensions or changes in OPEC+ production could affect supply levels and drive prices lower or higher.
Correlations
Crude oil prices tend to move inversely to the USD and often correlate with broader commodity markets. Watch for signals in USD strength or weakness following the US CPI data, as this will influence the direction of oil prices.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 2526.68
- 1st Support: 2486.64 (Swing-low support, key buying area).
- 1st Resistance: 2540.67 (Resistance aligning with 127.20% Fibonacci extension).
XAU/USD (Gold) remains under pressure, with potential for a drop to 2486.64 support. The metal has found resistance near the pivot level, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is heavily influenced by today’s US CPI data and the ongoing inflation narrative. If inflation comes in lower than expected, this could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, movements in bond yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) will have a significant impact on gold prices.
Correlations
Gold often correlates inversely with the USD and US Treasury yields. A stronger dollar could push gold prices lower, while a weaker dollar may provide some upward support.
DE40 (DAX Index)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 18,099.55
- 1st Support: 17,801.10 (Overlap support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting strong buying interest).
- 1st Resistance: 18,546.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and resistance zone).
DE40 (DAX Index) is showing a potential for a bullish bounce off the 18,099.55 pivot level. The price may rise toward the 18,546.80 resistance if momentum shifts to the upside.
Fundamental Analysis
The upcoming Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (Thursday) will have a strong influence on the DE40, as inflation figures will affect market sentiment around European equities. Lower-than-expected CPI could lead to a rally, while higher inflation may pressure the index further. Additionally, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting will provide critical insight into interest rate paths, which could also influence German equities.
Correlations
The DAX index is closely correlated with broader European equity indices such as the Euro Stoxx 50. A positive sentiment in Eurozone equities could lift the DAX, while any negative developments in the Eurozone economy could weigh on the index.
US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Momentum: Bearish
Technical Analysis
- Pivot: 5,385.30
- 1st Support: 5,302.90 (Pullback support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 5,534.10 (Overlap resistance aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).
The S&P 500 shows bearish momentum but could see a bullish bounce from the current pivot level. Traders should monitor key support levels for a potential reversal.
Fundamental Analysis
The US CPI report today will be the major fundamental driver for the S&P 500. Higher inflation may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts, causing downward pressure on stocks. Conversely, lower inflation may spur a rally as investors price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance.
Correlations
The S&P 500 typically correlates positively with broader US equities and inversely with volatility indices like the VIX. A rise in the S&P could signal renewed risk appetite in the market.
Conclusion
Today’s trading signals are heavily influenced by upcoming economic events such as US CPI data, UK GDP reports, and EIA oil inventories. Each of these events can trigger volatility across major asset classes like forex, commodities, and equities. Make sure to closely follow these key events and use the technical analysis provided to identify entry and exit points.
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