The U.S. housing crisis has reached a tipping point, with political leaders from coast to coast raising alarms about its impact on families and local economies. Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego labeled it an “all hands on deck challenge,” while New York City Mayor Eric Adams emphasized the need for a more aggressive approach to building housing. This shared sense of urgency is no longer confined to local governments but has become a national issue, playing a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential race.
Both major political parties are crafting policies to address housing affordability, as candidates acknowledge that the crisis is affecting millions of Americans. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has made housing a key part of her platform, proposing tax credits for builders of affordable homes and offering $25,000 in down payment assistance for qualifying buyers. Meanwhile, Republican rival Donald Trump is promising to open federal lands for housing development and cut regulations to make homes more affordable.
The backdrop for these promises is a grim reality: Homeownership affordability is at its lowest level since 2006, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. High mortgage rates and a shortage of housing supply—exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis—have made it difficult for many Americans to buy homes.
The Economic and Political Stakes
In states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, where housing prices have soared, the political stakes are high. A report from brokerage firm Redfin showed that the median monthly payment for homebuyers in swing states has nearly doubled since the 2020 election, putting immense pressure on the middle class.
Polls consistently indicate that voters rank the economy, and by extension housing costs, as a top concern for the 2024 election. Harris has seized on this, making housing a central focus of her campaign, especially in battleground states. Ads emphasizing her plan to build 3 million homes are already airing in regions hardest hit by the housing crisis.
While Harris is offering solutions like down payment assistance and measures to curb corporate landlords, Trump is positioning himself as a candidate who will reverse the affordability crisis through deregulation and land use reform. His campaign is focused on easing inflation, bringing down mortgage rates, and providing housing relief through less government intervention. Trump’s strategy includes utilizing federal lands for housing projects and reducing regulatory barriers.
Challenges and Opportunities
Implementing these ambitious plans will not be easy. Harris’ housing proposals, though popular among her base, may struggle to gain traction with independent voters. Additionally, critics argue that increasing down payment assistance without first boosting housing supply could further drive up prices. Harris’ plan to tackle corporate landlords may also face resistance from powerful real estate interests.
On the other hand, Trump’s proposals to open federal lands for housing may appeal to rural voters but could face logistical challenges, as many of these lands are far from urban centers where housing demand is highest. Moreover, while Trump has blamed migrants for rising housing costs, the reality is more nuanced, as migrants also constitute a significant portion of the construction workforce, helping to alleviate housing shortages in some areas.
Long-Term Consequences
Both candidates’ housing policies aim to address a problem that has been brewing for over a decade. Following the 2008 housing crash, home construction slowed dramatically, leading to a long-term supply shortage. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and rising interest rates have worsened the situation, with existing homeowners staying put, resulting in fewer homes on the market.
The housing crisis is particularly acute in high-demand metropolitan areas, but its effects are felt nationwide. Without significant intervention, the U.S. risks losing critical workers like teachers and first responders who can no longer afford to live where they work. Additionally, many Americans could miss out on the wealth-building opportunities that homeownership traditionally provides, further widening the gap between the wealthy and the middle class.
Ultimately, voters in swing states will play a key role in determining which candidate’s approach resonates more. Housing affordability is emerging as a central theme, one that could influence the outcome of the election and shape U.S. economic policy for years to come.
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