The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast, lowering it to 903,000 barrels per day from 970,000 b/d. This adjustment comes as a result of a continued slowdown in China, which is expected to impact global oil demand growth.
Key Points to Consider:
- China’s economic slowdown will continue to affect global oil demand growth.
- Global oil-demand growth is decelerating, with a rise of 800,000 b/d in the first half of the year.
- The global downturn is driven by a rapid slowdown in Chinese consumption.
- The IEA maintains its 2025 global oil-demand growth forecast at 954,000 b/d.
- The total demand forecast for 2024 has been trimmed to an average of 103 million b/d from 103.1 million b/d.
- The IEA keeps its 2024 non-OPEC+ production growth estimate at 1.5 million b/d.
- The 2025 total demand forecast has been revised down to an average of 103.9 million b/d from 104 million b/d.
- The IEA maintains its 2025 non-OPEC+ production growth estimate at 1.5 million b/d.
- Global oil supply increased by 80,000 b/d in August, partly due to losses in Libya.
- The total oil-supply forecast for 2024 remains at an average of 102.9 million b/d.
- The 2025 total oil-supply forecast has been slightly raised to an average of 105 million b/d from 104.9 million b/d.
- Global refinery output forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been lowered.
- Russian oil exports fell in August, impacting commercial export revenue.
Overall, the revised global oil demand growth forecast by the IEA suggests a challenging market environment for oil producers and investors. The continued slowdown in China and fluctuations in global oil supply are key factors to monitor for anyone with interests in the oil market. Understanding these trends and forecasts can help investors make informed decisions and navigate the uncertainties of the oil market.