A U.S. government forecaster has predicted a 71% chance of La Nina weather conditions developing from September to November, with expectations of persisting through the January-March period next year, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
La Nina, characterized by colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and droughts, as well as an increase in hurricane frequency in the Caribbean. The upcoming La Nina is expected to bring less rain, potentially worsening drought conditions that could have a significant impact on agriculture globally.
The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years. Japan’s weather bureau also recently forecasted a 60% chance of a La Nina phenomenon occurring until winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to a Reuters poll, Brazilian soybean farmers could see a 14% increase in production for the 2024/2025 season due to expectations of more rain in the last quarter of the year.
Expert Insights:
“The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the effects of La Nina with many of these areas key for the production for crops such as soybeans and corn,” said David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics.
“The typical La Nina may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the main area to watch for dryness concerns and crop production reductions is the crop lands of Argentina, Uruguay, and southeast Brazil during their summer,” added AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls.
Analysis:
With the increasing likelihood of La Nina conditions, it is crucial for investors and farmers to monitor the situation closely. The potential impact on agriculture could lead to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for crops like soybeans and corn. Global markets may also experience volatility as a result of weather-related disruptions in supply chains. It is advisable for stakeholders to stay informed and adapt their strategies to mitigate any potential risks associated with La Nina.