💹 DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
The DXY has been under constant pressure as the US Dollar Index faces headwinds from weaker inflation expectations and softer US data. Trading just above the pivot level of 102.34, the index is expected to face further downside pressure. The 100% Fibonacci Projection and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension have formed a key resistance area near 102.34, signaling a potential reversal towards the first support at 101.36.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Confluence at 102.34 suggests resistance levels where price may encounter selling pressure.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): DXY is struggling to remain above the 50-level on the RSI, signaling weak bullish momentum and increasing bearish sentiment.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is moving into negative territory, confirming a bearish trend.
Economic Events Impact:
- USD Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:30: A lower-than-expected PPI print could drive the DXY down, pushing the index towards the 1st support at 101.36.
- Initial Jobless Claims: If claims data comes in worse than expected, the DXY could see further downside as investors react to economic weakness in the US.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions can be initiated below 102.34 with a potential target at 101.36. Tight stop-loss should be placed above 102.93 to limit risk.
- Correlating Assets: A bearish DXY typically translates into bullish movement for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold. Conversely, USD/JPY could also weaken as the yen benefits from risk-off flows.
💶 EUR/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The EUR/USD pair continues to benefit from US dollar weakness, with a potential bullish breakout above 1.1006. With strong overlap support near 1.1006 and 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, the pair is positioned for further gains. If the current bullish momentum holds, EUR/USD could push towards the 1st resistance at 1.1111.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension align at 1.0943, offering a robust support zone that could propel price higher.
- RSI is trading above 60, signaling strong bullish momentum.
- MACD is showing a bullish crossover, indicating increased buying pressure.
Economic Events Impact:
- EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) at 10:00: With inflation expected at 2.2%, any upward surprises in the CPI data could push EUR/USD higher as it bolsters the case for a more hawkish ECB.
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement: If the ECB signals a continued tightening stance, the euro may gain further against the dollar, pushing EUR/USD above the key resistance at 1.1111.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Consider long positions near the pivot level of 1.1006, with a target at 1.1111. Stop-loss should be placed below 1.0943 to manage downside risks.
- Correlating Assets: As EUR/USD moves higher, expect the DXY to weaken further. A stronger euro could also drive EUR/GBP higher, especially if the UK data remains weak.
💴 EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
EUR/JPY continues to struggle with bearish pressure as it approaches the pivot level at 157.55. The pullback resistance at this level, coupled with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and swing low support at 155.24, suggests that a further decline is possible.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Projection at 155.24 signals a key support level, and a break below this level could result in accelerated selling.
- RSI is trading below 50, confirming that the bearish momentum is in control.
- MACD has crossed into negative territory, indicating continued selling pressure.
Economic Events Impact:
- EUR Wholesale Price Index (MoM) at 09:00: A weak inflation print could further weaken the euro, pushing EUR/JPY lower as investors flee riskier assets for safer currencies like the yen.
- ECB Rate Decision at 15:15: If the ECB delivers a dovish outlook, EUR/JPY could fall sharply as euro weakness intensifies.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Traders should consider short positions below 157.55, targeting the 1st support at 155.24. A break below this level could see further downside. Place a stop-loss above 160.26 to protect against unexpected reversals.
- Correlating Assets: A bearish EUR/JPY usually signals strength in other yen crosses, such as GBP/JPY and USD/JPY, as the yen benefits from safe-haven inflows.
💷 EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
EUR/GBP remains under pressure, with price action struggling near the pivot of 0.8453. The 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level coincides with this pivot, reinforcing its significance as a resistance zone. Further downside toward 0.8409 is likely, especially if the euro weakens against other major currencies.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: Price is currently trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which suggests continued downside risk.
- RSI remains below 50, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment.
- MACD shows a bearish divergence, signaling further declines.
Economic Events Impact:
- BoE’s Breeden Speech at 11:00: Any dovish tone from the Bank of England could weaken the pound, providing some relief to EUR/GBP. However, strong UK data could push EUR/GBP further down towards 0.8409.
- EUR CPI (YoY) at 10:00: A weaker inflation print could add further downside pressure on EUR/GBP, pushing the pair lower as the pound strengthens.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 0.8453, targeting 0.8409. Stop-loss should be placed above 0.8485 to protect against a sudden rebound.
- Correlating Assets: EUR/GBP typically moves in tandem with EUR/USD and inversely with GBP/USD. A weaker euro could push GBP/USD higher while dragging EUR/USD lower.
💷 GBP/USD
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
GBP/USD remains firmly bearish as the pair continues to trade below the Ichimoku Cloud. Price action has found resistance near the pivot of 1.3060, with a likely continuation of the bearish trend towards the 1st support at 1.2942.
Technical Indicators:
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price is currently trading below the cloud, signaling that the pair is in a well-established downtrend.
- RSI is hovering around 40, indicating that bearish momentum is building.
- MACD shows a bearish crossover, signaling increased selling pressure.
Economic Events Impact:
- BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 15:30: Any dovish tone from the Bank of England could push GBP/USD further down, especially if the US dollar gains strength after the USD PPI and Jobless Claims data.
- US Producer Price Index: A stronger-than-expected print could lead to USD strength, further weighing down GBP/USD.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 1.3060, targeting 1.2942. A stop-loss should be placed above 1.3115 to protect against a possible reversal.
- Correlating Assets: As GBP/USD weakens, expect EUR/GBP to strengthen. A stronger US dollar will also push USD/CHF higher.
💱 GBP/JPY
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
GBP/JPY is showing clear signs of bearish momentum, with price action holding below the pivot at 187.95. The pair is likely to continue its descent towards the 1st support at 183.11 as the yen benefits from safe-haven flows.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently below 50, indicating that bearish momentum is building.
- MACD: Negative divergence is confirming that sellers remain in control.
Economic Events Impact:
- BoE’s Breeden Speech at 11:00: Any dovish comments from the BoE could add further pressure to the pound, accelerating the decline in GBP/JPY.
- USD PPI and Jobless Claims: A weaker US dollar may indirectly support the yen, pushing GBP/JPY lower.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 187.95, targeting 183.11. A stop-loss should be placed above 189.77 to limit risk in case of a reversal.
- Correlating Assets: GBP/JPY often moves in tandem with other yen pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. A weaker yen across the board could indicate broader risk-off sentiment in the market.
💱 USD/CHF
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
USD/CHF is showing bullish potential as the pair is trading above the pivot of 0.8497, with potential for further upside toward 0.8620.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement at 61.80% suggests that the 0.8620 level could act as a key resistance point where sellers may re-enter the market.
- RSI: The pair is nearing 60, confirming a bullish shift in momentum.
- MACD: Positive divergence is indicating that buying pressure is building.
Economic Events Impact:
- USD PPI at 15:30: A higher-than-expected PPI print could push USD/CHF higher, especially if the US economy shows signs of resilience.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Stronger US data could bolster USD, adding to the bullish sentiment for USD/CHF.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Consider long positions above 0.8497, targeting 0.8620. A stop-loss should be placed below 0.8375 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: A stronger USD/CHF could also indicate a bullish outlook for DXY, as both assets are positively correlated.
💱 USD/JPY
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
USD/JPY remains under bearish pressure as price continues to hover near the pivot of 143.66. The 50% Fibonacci Retracement is offering strong resistance at 145.46, and if the price breaks below 143.66, the pair is likely to head towards 140.65.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Below 50, confirming that the bears remain in control.
- MACD: The bearish divergence indicates that further downside is likely.
Economic Events Impact:
- USD PPI at 15:30: If PPI data disappoints, expect USD/JPY to drop further as the yen gains strength.
- Jobless Claims: Weaker-than-expected jobless claims could provide additional downside momentum for USD/JPY.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions below 143.66, targeting 140.65. Place a stop-loss above 145.46 to manage risk in case of a reversal.
- Correlating Assets: As USD/JPY declines, expect EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY to show similar weakness.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
USD/CAD is trading near 1.3616, with the possibility of a reversal towards 1.3493 if the pair fails to break above resistance.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement at 38.2% suggests selling pressure at 1.3616.
- RSI signals neutral momentum, awaiting a breakout.
Economic Events Impact:
- CAD Building Permits (MoM) at 15:30: A stronger CAD could drive USD/CAD lower, especially if Canadian data beats expectations.
- USD PPI: Weaker US data could also push the pair lower.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions below 1.3616, targeting 1.3493. Place a stop-loss above 1.3699.
🇦🇺 AUD/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The AUD/USD pair is showing potential bullish momentum after bouncing from the pivot at 0.6640. Price action has respected this overlap support zone, which aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a possible rise toward the 1st resistance at 0.6752.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6640 has provided a key area of support, and the pair has bounced off this level, indicating bullish potential.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is climbing back above 50, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a bullish crossover, indicating the potential for increased buying activity.
Economic Events Impact:
- CNY New Loans & Money Supply at N/A: AUD often correlates with Chinese economic data due to Australia’s trade ties with China. Positive Chinese data, such as increased lending or stronger-than-expected money supply, would likely support further gains in AUD/USD.
- US PPI at 15:30: A weak US PPI print could further weaken the US dollar, pushing AUD/USD higher as traders seek higher-yielding currencies.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Buy positions can be taken near the pivot of 0.6640, targeting the 1st resistance at 0.6752. A stop-loss should be placed below 0.6582 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: A stronger AUD/USD may correlate with rising commodity prices, especially iron ore and copper, which are major Australian exports. A bullish AUD may also result in a weaker USD/JPY due to inverse relationships with USD pairs.
🇳🇿 NZD/USD
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
NZD/USD is trading close to the pivot of 0.6124, supported by a 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. The pair has shown resilience at this support level, with potential to rise toward the 1st resistance at 0.6234.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6124 has held as a strong support level, suggesting potential for a bullish reversal.
- RSI: The RSI is recovering from the oversold region and approaching 50, indicating building bullish strength.
- MACD: The MACD is turning positive, with a bullish crossover signaling potential upward momentum.
Economic Events Impact:
- NZ Business PMI at 01:30: If the Business PMI shows improvement, NZD/USD could rally as it indicates strength in New Zealand’s economic activity.
- US PPI and Jobless Claims at 15:30: A weaker US dollar, driven by soft US economic data, would likely support the NZD, pushing the pair higher.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Buy positions are recommended near 0.6124, targeting the 1st resistance at 0.6234. Place stop-loss just below 0.6077 to manage downside risks.
- Correlating Assets: A strong NZD often correlates with bullish moves in AUD/USD. Watch for simultaneous upward momentum in these antipodean currencies, as they are often influenced by risk sentiment and commodity prices.
🇺🇸 US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The US30 is approaching the pivot level at 41,056.42 after a period of sideways consolidation. The 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement near this level acts as a significant resistance point, signaling the potential for a reversal and pullback toward the 1st support at 40,202.56.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.80% level has historically acted as a strong resistance, and the price is struggling to break above it, indicating a potential reversal.
- RSI: The RSI is nearing overbought levels, signaling the possibility of a bearish reversal.
- MACD: The MACD is flattening out, indicating weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish crossover.
Economic Events Impact:
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:30: Weaker PPI data could send the US30 lower as it signals inflationary pressures are easing, which may reduce the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes.
- Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30: Higher-than-expected jobless claims could trigger a risk-off sentiment, pushing US30 lower as investors seek safer assets.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions can be taken near 41,056.42, targeting the 1st support at 40,202.56. A stop-loss should be placed above 41,604.84 to protect against a possible breakout.
- Correlating Assets: As US30 declines, expect risk-averse assets like Gold and US Treasury Bonds to rally. Additionally, a weaker Dow could lead to lower USD/JPY as yen strengthens in a risk-off environment.
🇩🇪 DE40 (DAX)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The DE40 (DAX) index is trading near the pivot of 18,546.80, with signs of potential weakness ahead. The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement near the pivot suggests that a pullback could be imminent, sending the index lower toward the 1st support at 18,247.90.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.2% Fibonacci level provides a strong resistance zone, and failure to break above it could lead to a bearish pullback.
- RSI: The RSI is hovering just below 50, indicating neutral momentum but with potential for a bearish shift.
- MACD: The MACD remains neutral, but any bearish divergence could confirm a downside move.
Economic Events Impact:
- Eurogroup Meeting at 10:00: Discussions around European fiscal policy could impact DAX sentiment. A cautious tone could see the DAX decline, especially if broader economic concerns in the eurozone persist.
- ECB Monetary Policy at 15:15: A dovish stance from the ECB could pressure DAX as low interest rates signal caution around European growth.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions can be taken near 18,546.80, targeting 18,247.90. Place a stop-loss above 18,971.60 to limit risk.
- Correlating Assets: A decline in DE40 may indicate broader weakness in European equities, with potential impacts on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, as investors seek safety in bonds or other low-risk assets.
🇺🇸 US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: 📈 Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The US500 (S&P 500) is showing signs of strength as it trades near the pivot level of 5,561.63, with potential to break higher toward 5,669.89. The 50% Fibonacci Retracement level is acting as a key area of support, and continued strength in the broader US economy could support further gains.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 50% retracement level has held as a strong support zone, and price is now pushing towards resistance, indicating the potential for a breakout.
- RSI: The RSI is approaching 60, signaling increasing bullish momentum.
- MACD: The MACD shows a bullish divergence, confirming potential for further gains.
Economic Events Impact:
- US PPI at 15:30: If the PPI data surprises to the upside, it could push the S&P 500 higher as inflationary pressures signal a robust economy, increasing investor confidence.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Lower jobless claims would also support the S&P 500 as it signals strength in the labor market, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Buy positions are favored above 5,561.63, with a target near the 1st resistance at 5,669.89. Place a stop-loss below 5,385.30 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: A bullish US500 typically correlates with stronger US equities, and riskier assets like Bitcoin and commodities may also rise in tandem.
🟡 BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to face resistance near the pivot of 60,783.25, with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement indicating potential for further downside. The price action suggests that BTC could fall toward the 1st support at 55,534.89.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.80% level near 60,783.25 has provided a strong resistance zone, and failure to break above it could signal further bearish pressure.
- RSI: The RSI is neutral, but trending downward, indicating growing bearish momentum.
- MACD: The MACD shows bearish divergence, signaling that the sellers may regain control.
Economic Events Impact:
- US Regulatory Developments: Any negative news around cryptocurrency regulation in the US or globally could push Bitcoin lower, as increased scrutiny tends to dampen investor sentiment.
- US Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected data could impact Bitcoin, especially if it sparks a broader market risk-off sentiment, driving capital into safer assets.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 60,783.25, targeting the 1st support at 55,534.89. A stop-loss should be placed above 64,376.72 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: Bitcoin’s movements often correlate with risk sentiment in equity markets, especially tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq. If Bitcoin declines, expect broader risk-off moves across high-risk assets.
🟣 ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
ETH/USD is showing signs of weakness near the pivot at 2,454.11, with price likely to fall toward the 1st support at 2,290.88. Ethereum is currently facing resistance around the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, signaling the possibility of further declines.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 50% level near 2,454.11 has acted as a strong resistance zone, limiting the upside.
- RSI: The RSI is neutral but trending downwards, indicating waning bullish momentum.
- MACD: Bearish divergence in the MACD suggests that Ethereum could see further downside pressure.
Economic Events Impact:
- US Regulatory Developments: Similar to Bitcoin, any adverse news on regulation could push ETH/USD lower.
- Broader Market Sentiment: If the US equities market enters a risk-off phase, Ethereum could see selling pressure as investors flee from speculative assets.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 2,454.11, targeting the 1st support at 2,290.88. Place a stop-loss above 2,575.58 to limit risk.
- Correlating Assets: Ethereum typically moves in tandem with Bitcoin. A bearish outlook on BTC will likely push ETH/USD lower as well.
🛢️ WTI/USD (Oil)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
WTI Crude Oil is trading near the pivot at 68.13, with a likely bearish reversal that could send the price down to the 1st support at 66.04. The ongoing weakness is confirmed by the presence of a bearish channel and Ichimoku Cloud resistance.
Technical Indicators:
- Bearish Channel: Price remains within a well-defined downtrend channel, with resistance at the upper bound.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Oil is trading below the cloud, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
- RSI: The RSI remains below 50, confirming continued selling pressure.
Economic Events Impact:
- US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage at 17:30: Although related to natural gas, any significant changes in energy market sentiment can spill over to oil prices.
- US Jobless Claims and PPI: Weaker US data could signal slowing demand, leading to lower oil prices.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 68.13, targeting the 1st support at 66.04. Place a stop-loss above 70.62 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: As oil prices decline, energy-related currencies like CAD (USD/CAD) and NOK may weaken. A drop in oil prices could also negatively impact equity markets, particularly energy stocks.
🟡 XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: 📉 Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to face bearish pressure as the price approaches the pivot of 2526.68. The multi-swing high resistance suggests that price may soon drop towards the 1st support at 2486.64.
Technical Indicators:
- Fibonacci Extension: The 127.20% level near 2540.67 provides strong resistance, and a failure to breach this level could see further downside.
- RSI: The RSI remains below 50, indicating that sellers are still in control.
- MACD: Bearish divergence suggests that gold could fall further in the short term.
Economic Events Impact:
- US PPI and Jobless Claims: Strong US economic data could boost the US dollar and push gold prices lower as investors favor the greenback over the safe-haven asset.
- Fed Rate Hike Expectations: Continued hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could weigh on gold as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Short positions are recommended below 2526.68, targeting 2486.64. Stop-loss should be placed above 2540.67 to manage risk.
- Correlating Assets: As gold declines, expect USD strength, particularly against lower-yielding currencies like the JPY and CHF. A rising US dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices.
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