China’s Economic Data Set to Impact Oil Prices Next Week, Expert Analysis Reveals
Don’t Expect a Surge in Oil Prices from China’s Economic Data
Commerzbank’s commodity analyst, Barbara Lambrecht, highlights the upcoming release of various economic data from China as a key factor to watch out for next week. The data, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and new home sales, will offer valuable insights into the current state of the Chinese economy which has been facing challenges in recent times. Of particular interest in the oil market will be the crude oil processing figures, following a notable uptick in Chinese crude oil imports in August.
The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) sheds light on the subdued crack spreads in product markets compared to previous years. Additionally, the IEA has revised its Chinese demand growth forecast downwards, now anticipating a modest increase of under 200,000 barrels per day. This downward revision contrasts with the initial projection of 700,000 barrels per day made at the beginning of the year, signaling a more cautious outlook compared to historical trends.
Despite these factors, the current crude processing levels remain below 14 million barrels per day as of July, marking the lowest level since October 2022. Given these circumstances, it is unlikely that the upcoming economic data will lead to a significant boost in oil prices.
Stay tuned for the latest updates on China’s economic performance and its implications for the global oil market.