- The Dow Jones is grinding its way back into record bids on Friday.
- US markets are leaning firmly into bets of a 50 bps cut from the Fed.
- Mixed US sentiment figures keep investor sentiment on the high side.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied for a third straight day on Friday, climbing around 350 points and coming within reach of record highs above 41,500 as market sentiment tilts further into rate cut hopes. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in a 45% chance of an initial 50 bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) when the US central bank gathers to make its rate decision on September 18.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 69.0 in September, reaching a four-month high as surveyed consumers’ outlook on the US economy slowly improves following months of declining economic expectations. The upside tilt in UoM survey results helped to anchor rate cut expectations heading into next week, despite the UoM also noting an uptick in 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations to 3.1% in September from the previous 3.0%.
US Export and Import Price Indexes also declined sharper than expected in August, with the Export Price Index printing a -0.7% contraction versus the expected -0.1%, reversing the previous month’s 0.5% as inflation pressures appear to ease in trade conditions. The MoM Import Price Index in August contracted 0.3%, below the expected -0.2% and down from the previous period’s 0.1%.
Dow Jones News
With equities leaning firmly into rate cut hopes, the Dow Jones equity index is broadly in the green on Friday, with all but three of the DJIA’s constituent securities on the rise to wrap up the trading week. Gains are being led by Caterpillar Inc (CAT) and Home Depot Inc (HD), with both stocks climbing nearly 2% for the day. Caterpillar is testing above $346 per share while Home Depot is breaking above $381 per share for the first time since March.
Elsewhere on the Dow Jones, Boeing Co (BA) is facing steep declines on Friday, tumbling to a daily performance of -3.5% and falling to $157 per share as the airplane manufacturer sees its first worker strike in over 15 years.
Dow Jones Price Forecast
The Dow Jones is within a stone’s throw of fresh all-time highs, testing into 41,500 with eyes on late August’s current record high bid of 41,574. The Dow Jones has rallied nearly 4% in the last three days, recovering from a near-term plunge below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), catching a technical bounce from 39,989.
Dow Jones Daily Chart
Analysis:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recent rally towards record highs is fueled by optimism in the market, driven by expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Positive consumer sentiment and declining inflation pressures are also contributing to the positive outlook. Companies like Caterpillar and Home Depot are leading the gains, while Boeing faces challenges due to a worker strike. The Dow Jones is on track to potentially break its previous record high and has shown strong recovery in recent days, indicating positive momentum in the market.