China’s Growing Uranium Demand to Shape Global Market, Citi Analysts Report
China’s increasing reliance on nuclear energy and potential expansion of its nuclear arsenal are driving significant growth in uranium imports, according to Citi analysts. The country’s current and future demand for uranium is expected to rise, leading to a surge in imports in the coming years.
By 2024, China’s utilities will require 14.6 kt U (38 million lbs) of uranium, accounting for 22% of global demand. This figure is projected to increase to 24.6 kt U (64 million lbs) by 2030, representing 28% of global demand. With the country actively building its nuclear fleet, uranium demand is expected to steadily rise every year.
In addition to energy needs, China’s geopolitical stance, including potential plans to expand its nuclear warhead arsenal, could further drive up uranium requirements. Citi estimates that this expansion could necessitate 84.6 kt U (220 million lbs) of uranium, highlighting the country’s heavy reliance on imports due to limited domestic production.
Despite China’s current uranium stockpiles of approximately 173 kt U (450 million lbs), built mainly through imports from Central Asia and Africa, the country’s future import policies could disrupt the global uranium market. Citi warns that China’s share of global uranium demand is projected to reach 36% by 2040, potentially leading to increased volatility in global uranium prices.
Analysis: China’s growing demand for uranium presents significant opportunities for investors in the uranium market. As the country intensifies its nuclear energy usage and potentially expands its nuclear arsenal, the need for uranium is expected to rise, driving up prices and creating potential investment gains. However, the reliance on imports and potential geopolitical factors could also introduce volatility and risk to the market. Individuals looking to diversify their investment portfolios may consider exploring opportunities in uranium-related assets to capitalize on China’s increasing demand and its impact on the global market.