The Week Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe: Key Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions
Overview of Economic Events
- PPI in the Czech Republic and core inflation in Poland for August will be published today.
- Tomorrow in Romania, industrial production for July will be released.
- On Thursday, industrial production and wages in Poland will be reported.
Central Bank Actions
The Central Bank of Turkey is scheduled to meet on Thursday, with expectations of rates remaining unchanged at 50%. Focus will be on the bank’s communication, indicating a possible rate cut in November.
Market Speakers and Events
Speakers are scheduled in the CEE region this week, with the Czech National Bank’s blackout period starting on Wednesday. Hungary’s Minister for Economy will address a conference on Tuesday, coinciding with the country’s deadline to pay the EU fine. The PM is also set to speak at the European Parliament on Wednesday.
FX Market Outlook
The global story and Fed decision will impact FX markets this week. A dovish Fed stance is expected to support CEE FX. Bullish on the Czech Koruna (CZK) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), while remaining neutral on the Polish Zloty (PLN).
Analysis and Forecast
This week’s economic events and central bank actions in the CEE region provide insights into the region’s economic health and potential market movements. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
Key Economic Indicators
- PPI and core inflation data in the Czech Republic and Poland will offer insights into price trends and economic stability.
- Industrial production figures in Romania and Poland will indicate the strength of the manufacturing sector.
Central Bank Actions
- The Central Bank of Turkey’s decision on interest rates and future rate cut expectations will influence investor sentiment and currency markets.
- The Czech National Bank’s potential rate cut and forward guidance will shape market expectations and currency movements.
Market Events and Speakers
- Speeches from key figures in the CEE region will provide insights into economic policies and market sentiment.
- Hungary’s EU fine payment deadline and political speeches could impact investor confidence and market volatility.
FX Market Outlook
- A dovish Fed stance is expected to support CEE currencies, with potential gains for the CZK and HUF.
- Market dynamics and central bank actions will determine the performance of the PLN, with a neutral outlook for now.
Overall, this week’s events in the CEE region offer opportunities for investors to assess market trends, economic data, and central bank actions for informed decision-making.