The Dow Jones Reaches New Highs
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a new record high, signaling a positive start to the trading week. The top equities on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) saw a slight increase, with investors eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.
What to Expect from the Fed’s Rate Call
- Investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut on Wednesday.
- There is a consensus among investors that a rate cut is imminent, with debates focusing on the extent of the cut rather than its timing.
- The CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests a 60% chance of a 50 bps rate decrease, while the remaining 40% expect a more modest 25 bps cut.
- Market forecasts indicate a total cut of 125-150 bps by the end of the year, with a high probability of the Fed funds rate dropping to 400-425 bps by December 18.
US Retail Sales Update
Tomorrow, US Retail Sales data will be released, but significant volatility is not expected unless the figures deviate significantly from forecasts. Forecasts predict a slight decrease in MoM Retail Sales growth compared to the previous month.
Dow Jones Performance
Despite a generally subdued day for US equities, the Dow Jones showed strength by climbing approximately 130 points, reaching a new intraday high near 41,500. Notable movements in individual stocks include:
- Intel Corp (INTC) surged 2.5% following news of a $3.5 billion grant from the US government, despite struggles to recover from recent lows.
- Apple Inc (AAPL) experienced a -3.3% drop due to lower-than-expected demand for its latest iPhone model.
Dow Jones Price Forecast
The Dow Jones continues its upward trajectory, marking four consecutive days of gains and surpassing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. However, caution is advised as historical patterns suggest potential volatility around major news events.
Economic Indicator: Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the total receipts of retail and food stores in the US. This data is a key indicator of consumer spending, a major driver of the economy. A high reading is typically positive for the US Dollar, while a low reading is considered bearish.
Next Release: Tue Sep 17, 2024 12:30
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 1%
