Expert Investment Insights
Recent Trades and Gains
- Sold long position on 9/13/24 at 5626.02, gaining 2.23%
- Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41
- Sold SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25, gaining 8.14%
- Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33
Yearly Performance
Our gain from 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 on the SPX was an impressive 28.12%, outperforming the SPX gain of 23.38%.
Current Market Analysis
We are currently up over 28% this year, with the SPX up around 18%. The SPY/VIX ratio indicates bearish signs when the SPY makes a higher high and the ratio makes a lower high, as noted on the chart. Additionally, extended periods of market growth, like when the SPY is up 7 days in a row, often precede sideways or downward movement.
Seasonality is also leaning bearish, especially following the recent FOMC meeting. While the bigger trend remains bullish, the next month could see choppy market movements.
Monthly GDX Chart Insights
The monthly GDX chart indicates potential buy and sell signals based on the monthly GDX up/down volume percent and monthly GDX Advance/Decline percent. Major signals last between 1 ½ to 4 years, with the last signal generated on June 1, 2024. This suggests a target timeframe from December 2025 to June 2028 for potential market movements.
Analysis and Conclusion
Understanding recent trades, market trends, and seasonal factors is crucial for successful investment decisions. By monitoring indicators like the SPY/VIX ratio and the monthly GDX chart, investors can better predict market movements and optimize their portfolios.
For those new to finance, this information highlights the importance of staying informed and adapting to changing market conditions. By following expert insights and analyzing key indicators, individuals can make informed decisions that positively impact their financial future.