Welcome to today’s comprehensive market analysis and trading signals for major forex pairs and commodities. Covering key assets such as the DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, BTC/USD (Bitcoin), ETH/USD (Ethereum), WTI (Oil), XAU/USD (Gold), and DE40 (DAX), we provide in-depth technical insights to help traders make informed decisions. Whether you’re looking for pivot points, support/resistance levels, or Fibonacci retracement analysis, this guide covers it all. Stay ahead of the market with today’s top trading signals and capitalize on the key movements in global financial markets.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The DXY is showing signs of a potential bullish bounce off the pivot, supported by multi-swing low levels that may act as a strong base for further upward movement. The broader bullish momentum indicates that buyers are likely to step in at lower levels, especially if economic data supports the dollar.
- Pivot: 100.52
Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support suggests this area could serve as a solid base where price could rebound. A history of multiple price reactions in this zone adds further confidence to a potential bounce. - 1st Support: 99.98
Supporting Reasons: Swing low support, combined with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicates a strong support zone. If the price dips below the pivot, buyers are expected to defend this area, as it has been a reliable demand zone in previous sessions. - 1st Resistance: 101.38
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligns with key historical price levels, indicating this could be a significant barrier where the price might stall. The 127.20% Fibonacci Extension adds confluence, further suggesting that sellers may step in if the price reaches this level.
Fundamental Considerations:
The DXY is sensitive to economic data, particularly inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed’s hawkish tone could support further dollar strength, while any signs of economic slowing may bring bearish pressure. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming jobless claims and PMI data.
EUR/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Factors: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the overall positive trend. While the euro has shown resilience against the dollar, risk events could still cause temporary setbacks.
- Pivot: 1.1121
Supporting Reasons: The pivot is aligned with overlap support, which has historically been a pivotal zone where buyers emerge. With strong bullish momentum and price above the Ichimoku cloud, there’s a high likelihood of further gains unless there’s a significant economic shift. - 1st Support: 1.1073
Supporting Reasons: The 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and swing low support provide strong confluence, making this level a robust support zone. Traders may look to buy dips towards this level if the price corrects. - 1st Resistance: 1.1201
Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing high resistance aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting this could be a challenging area for bulls to breach. If price action reaches this level, traders might see a reversal or consolidation, especially if economic data fails to provide support.
Market Outlook:
The pair is driven by both Eurozone and U.S. economic data. Eurozone inflation figures will be key, and traders should be cautious around ECB speeches, particularly if they indicate any dovish shift. U.S. retail sales and manufacturing data could also influence direction.
EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The overall trend remains bullish, but recent price action suggests a possible short-term bearish retracement. Traders should watch how the price reacts near the pivot and resistance levels for clues about the next directional move.
- Pivot: 159.96
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement are in alignment, indicating a potential barrier. Sellers might gain control if the price fails to break this level. - 1st Support: 158.28
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support, which has historically provided a floor for prices. If a bearish reversal occurs, this could be the key level where buyers look to re-enter the market. - 1st Resistance: 162.00
Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance suggests that this level could act as a barrier, with sellers likely to defend this zone due to historical price reactions.
Key Considerations:
The yen’s movement will be sensitive to any shifts in Japanese economic policy, particularly Bank of Japan decisions. Meanwhile, Eurozone data will also play a role, making this a pair where economic divergence could trigger strong moves.
EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
The EUR/GBP pair is exhibiting clear signs of downward momentum, with the potential for further declines towards the 1st support level. The overall bearish trend is reinforced by technical indicators.
- Pivot: 0.8413
Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligns with historical price action, making this a level where sellers could defend against bullish attempts. Fibonacci confluence adds strength to this resistance. - 1st Support: 0.8382
Supporting Reasons: 78.60% Fibonacci Projection and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension create a confluence zone that could act as strong support. If the price moves here, bulls might step in to prevent further declines. - 1st Resistance: 0.8430
Supporting Reasons: A pullback resistance, where price action has struggled previously. Sellers might increase their positions at this level.
Fundamental Impact:
Brexit-related news and BoE rate decisions will heavily influence the pair. Pay close attention to retail sales data and speeches from BoE policymakers, which could add volatility.
GBP/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The GBP/USD pair remains in a bullish structure, with price action showing resilience around key support zones. A breakout above the pivot would strengthen the case for further gains.
- Pivot: 1.3228
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support suggests that this level could act as a springboard for buyers. Historical price action indicates that bulls have consistently defended this area. - 1st Support: 1.3152
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support, providing an additional layer of defense where the price might find support in case of a deeper pullback. - 1st Resistance: 1.3327
Supporting Reasons: Swing high resistance aligns with 127.20% Fibonacci Extension and 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a confluence of levels that could cap upward movement.
Outlook:
GBP traders should focus on economic indicators such as retail sales, BoE decisions, and inflation data, which are likely to have a direct impact on price direction.
GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The GBP/JPY pair continues to show strong bullish momentum, driven by the strength of the British Pound and weakness in the Yen, largely due to Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. With rising inflation in the UK and a hawkish tone from the Bank of England, GBP remains robust, while the Yen continues to weaken amid Japan’s negative interest rate environment.
- Pivot: 188.89
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, with 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, suggests that this level could offer strong buying interest if the price dips, supporting a potential bounce higher. - 1st Support: 186.63
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support and swing low, providing additional support if the price drops below the pivot. This level is also aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels, adding strength to the support. - 1st Resistance: 191.42
Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligned with 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential resistance level where the price could face significant selling pressure. If broken, this could open the path for a continued bullish run.
Key Drivers:
- Bank of Japan’s Policy: The continued dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, focusing on keeping rates low, further weakens the Yen. Any potential comments or actions regarding tightening policy could create volatility in this pair.
- Bank of England’s Policy: The BOE’s hawkish approach, along with high inflation, bolsters the Pound, particularly with the ongoing rate hikes expected to continue, making GBP an attractive buy.
- Risk Sentiment: GBP/JPY is also a barometer of global risk sentiment. In times of increased risk appetite, the Yen tends to weaken, making GBP/JPY bullish.
Correlation with Risk Appetite:
GBP/JPY is often considered a “risk-on” currency pair, meaning it tends to rise when investors are optimistic and decline when risk aversion grows. Keep an eye on equity markets and geopolitical developments for signs of shifting risk sentiment that could influence this pair.
USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
The USD/CHF pair shows signs of a bearish continuation, with the pair trading below key resistance levels. The Franc remains a safe-haven currency, and global risk sentiment will play a role in its direction.
- Pivot: 0.8473
Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, indicating this level could act as a barrier where the price may struggle to move higher. - 1st Support: 0.8430
Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support, indicating this level may provide strong support where buyers could defend the price. - 1st Resistance: 0.8516
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level could act as a significant barrier for the price.
Key Market Drivers:
Swiss economic data and overall global risk sentiment, especially tied to European markets, will influence the USD/CHF. The Swiss National Bank’s stance on monetary policy and inflation will also have a significant impact on the Franc.
USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The USD/JPY is poised to continue its bullish momentum, with the pair likely to push higher as long as support levels hold. The Yen has been under pressure as traders focus on the divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy.
- Pivot: 142.38
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a strong support level where the price may find buyers. - 1st Support: 141.05
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level could provide additional support if the price moves lower. - 1st Resistance: 143.70
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance, suggesting this level may act as a barrier where the price could face selling pressure.
Fundamental Considerations:
USD/JPY remains sensitive to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy announcements, which impact the Dollar’s strength. The Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy is another key factor that continues to weigh on the Yen.
USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
USD/CAD is currently in a neutral phase, showing signs of potential bullish momentum, particularly if price action holds above key support levels. The Canadian Dollar’s performance will closely align with the movements in oil prices, as the CAD is highly correlated with crude oil.
- Pivot: 1.3546
Supporting Reasons: Identified as pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential level where buying interest could support the price and drive it higher. - 1st Support: 1.3492
Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support aligning with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a level where the price has historically found strong support, which may be a key defense area for buyers. - 1st Resistance: 1.3636
Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligning with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level may act as a resistance zone if the price rises.
Key Drivers:
USD/CAD is heavily influenced by crude oil prices, given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. Any significant moves in oil will likely affect the Canadian Dollar. In addition, U.S. economic data, particularly related to inflation and interest rates, will continue to drive USD/CAD in the coming sessions. The Bank of Canada’s stance on monetary policy and inflation will also play a key role.
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The AUD/USD is in a position where it could see a bullish reversal if support levels hold. Recent economic data out of Australia, including employment figures, will be crucial to determining the pair’s next move.
- Pivot: 0.6731
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where buyers may step in to support the price. - 1st Support: 0.6642
Supporting Reasons: Identified as overlap support with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level may act as a strong support zone. - 1st Resistance: 0.6827
Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance, aligning close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level may act as a barrier if price tries to push higher.
Fundamental Factors:
Australian economic data, especially tied to commodity prices (iron ore, coal), trade balance figures, and Chinese economic performance, will significantly impact the AUD. Watch for global risk sentiment as the AUD is often seen as a proxy for global growth.
NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
The NZD/USD has recently shown signs of support around key levels, with a potential for a bullish move higher if the current support holds. The New Zealand economy remains closely tied to global risk sentiment and demand for its key exports.
- Pivot: 0.6174
Supporting Reasons: Swing-low support aligning with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, providing a level where buyers may look to step in and support the price. - 1st Support: 0.6124
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where buying interest may re-emerge. - 1st Resistance: 0.6256
Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligning with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting this level could act as a resistance zone if the price rises.
Key Drivers:
New Zealand’s economic performance, especially related to dairy exports, and global risk sentiment will be crucial in driving the NZD/USD. Traders should also watch for any commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on interest rates and inflation.
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The US30 continues to hold its bullish momentum, with the potential for a bounce off the pivot level and further upward movement towards resistance. The index has shown resilience in the face of recent economic concerns, with key support levels holding firm.
- Pivot: 41,737.31
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating this level could act as a springboard for bullish movement. Historically, price action has seen buyers stepping in around this area. - 1st Support: 41,056.42
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting this area could provide additional support if the price drops below the pivot. - 1st Resistance: 42,533.15
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a major resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels (78.60% projection and 161.80% extension), suggesting this level could act as a strong barrier where the price might stall or reverse.
Market Considerations:
The index will likely be sensitive to U.S. economic data such as employment figures, retail sales, and Fed decisions. Positive data could boost sentiment and push the index higher, while any signs of economic slowdown could trigger profit-taking.
DE40 (DAX Index)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The DE40 is showing potential for a bounce off its pivot level, with buyers likely to emerge at lower levels. The index remains strong, with the German economy showing resilience despite broader Eurozone uncertainties.
- Pivot: 18,767.90
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting this level could serve as a foundation for a bullish continuation. - 1st Support: 18,424.10
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support that aligns with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, making it a strong support level where buyers could step in. - 1st Resistance: 19,212.50
Supporting Reasons: Resistance that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating this level could act as a significant barrier where sellers may emerge.
Key Focus:
German economic data, particularly manufacturing and business climate indicators, will play a pivotal role in the DAX’s movement. European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and speeches could also trigger volatility.
US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
The S&P 500 is currently pulling back towards its pivot, with the potential for a bullish bounce to resume its uptrend. The index has maintained a strong positive bias, with traders looking for buying opportunities on dips.
- Pivot: 5,669.89
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, making this level a potential launchpad for bullish continuation. - 1st Support: 5,598.77
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support that aligns with a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, providing a solid area where buyers may step in if the price falls below the pivot. - 1st Resistance: 5,830.73
Supporting Reasons: Resistance aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels, including the 78.60% projection and the 161.80% extension, suggesting this level could present a challenge for buyers to break.
Key Drivers:
The S&P 500 is highly sensitive to U.S. economic data, especially GDP, retail sales, and corporate earnings. Fed rate decisions and broader global economic sentiment will also impact the index’s trajectory.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance level, with potential for a bearish reversal as the price approaches the pivot. Despite the broader bullish momentum, a correction may occur before the next leg higher.
- Pivot: 64,376.72
Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance suggests this level could act as a barrier where sellers may step in to push the price lower. - 1st Support: 61,198.85
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support that aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, making it a key level where buyers could re-enter the market if the price pulls back. - 1st Resistance: 67,053.33
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligns with previous price action, suggesting this area could provide a challenge for bulls to break through.
Market Considerations:
Bitcoin is influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and sentiment around risk assets. Traders should watch for any sudden changes in market sentiment, which can cause rapid price swings.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
Ethereum is trending towards a potential bullish bounce off its pivot, with strong support levels indicating the potential for upward movement. The price has been consolidating recently, but buyers may step in if key levels hold.
- Pivot: 2,382.63
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting this level could provide a strong base for buyers to enter. - 1st Support: 2,271.00
Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support indicates a key area where price has previously found support, making it likely that buyers could defend this level. - 1st Resistance: 2,536.45
Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, making this level a potential challenge for the price to break.
Key Drivers:
Ethereum is impacted by overall crypto market sentiment, as well as developments within the Ethereum network, such as updates to the ETH 2.0 roadmap and network usage. Global macro events also influence crypto prices, so keep an eye on larger market moves.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
WTI is positioned for a potential bullish bounce off key support levels, with the energy sector watching for any shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Recent price action suggests a possible rebound towards resistance.
- Pivot: 69.89
Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting this level could act as a base for price recovery if buying pressure increases. - 1st Support: 68.13
Supporting Reasons: Overlap support, combined with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicates a strong support level where buyers could re-enter the market. - 1st Resistance: 72.61
Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting this level could present a significant challenge for the price to break.
Fundamental Drivers:
WTI is heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, OPEC decisions, and U.S. inventory data. Traders should keep an eye on the weekly EIA reports and any developments in global oil supply that could impact prices.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
Gold is poised for a potential continuation of its bearish trend, with key resistance levels holding firm. Traders should be cautious of any fundamental shifts that could impact the safe-haven appeal of gold.
- Pivot: 2591.74
Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing high resistance indicates this level could act as a strong barrier where the price may encounter selling pressure. - 1st Support: 2554.78
Supporting Reasons: Swing low support and 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement suggest this level could provide strong support, where buyers may look to defend against further declines. - 1st Resistance: 2614
Supporting Reasons: 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, implying this level may act as a significant barrier if the price attempts to rise.
Key Market Drivers:
Gold is primarily driven by inflation expectations, central bank policies, and global risk sentiment. Traders should keep a close watch on inflation data and any changes in monetary policy, especially from the Federal Reserve, as this could shift gold’s trajectory.
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