Gold Price Reaches Near Record Highs
On Monday, the gold price surged to near-record highs, reaching $2,625. This increase comes as the US Dollar shows signs of rebounding alongside Treasury bond yields, with investors eagerly awaiting US PMI data and Fedspeak.
Factors Driving the Gold Price
- US Dollar Recovery: Following a subdued performance post the jumbo US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the USD is showing signs of strength, fueled by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions.
- Middle East Tensions: Recent missile strikes by Hezbollah in Israel and retaliatory strikes by Israeli jets in Lebanon have heightened tensions in the region, contributing to the USD’s recovery.
- US House Republicans: The announcement of a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through December 20 has also provided support to the USD.
- US Treasury Bond Yields: The uptick in bond yields is further bolstering the US Dollar’s upward movement.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily chart, the Gold price is showing signs of a potential correction as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought territory. Key levels to watch include:
- $2,530: A decisive breakout above this level could signal further upside potential.
- $2,550: A critical support level to watch, which could prevent a significant downside move.
- $2,650 and $2,700: Psychological barriers that could be targeted by buyers if the bullish momentum continues.
Should the PMI reports hint at recessionary fears, the Gold price may experience a correction from its record highs. However, expectations of another Fed rate cut and ongoing Middle East tensions could provide support to Gold buyers.
Upcoming Economic Indicator: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a key indicator of business activity in the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, which is bullish for the USD, while a reading below 50 signals a decline, bearish for the USD. The next release is scheduled for Mon, Sep 23, 2024.
Overall, the Gold price is at a critical juncture, with various geopolitical and economic factors influencing its movement. Investors should closely monitor key levels and upcoming economic data to make informed decisions in this volatile market.