This detailed report outlines high-potential trades based on upcoming economic events, technical analysis strategies, and market trends. Each asset has been thoroughly analyzed to provide traders and investors with all the information necessary to make well-informed decisions. Whether you are new to trading or experienced, this analysis offers insights into current trends and market dynamics. A colorful interactive table below highlights buy and sell signals with easy-to-understand emojis for clear guidance.
📊 1. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction:
- 📉 Bearish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has exhibited bearish momentum over recent trading sessions. A key resistance point lies at 100.54, which aligns with a multi-day high and signals a potential ceiling for any further upward movement. This price point represents a pullback resistance level, and any attempt to break through could lead to exhaustion in buying strength.
Technical Indicators Used:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI hovers near the overbought territory, showing a divergence where the price has risen, but momentum is slowing. This supports the bearish outlook.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD has signaled a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downside pressure.
- Bollinger Bands: The price is currently pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, a sign that the market is overstretched and may correct downward.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting DXY:
- [11:00 USD] New Home Sales (MoM) (Aug): A lower-than-expected reading could further weigh on the USD, showing weakness in the housing sector.
- [17:00 USD] Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep 20): If crude oil stocks drop significantly, the USD may face additional pressure due to rising energy costs.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- Gold (XAU/USD): A decline in the DXY often correlates with bullish momentum in gold. If the USD weakens, look for a potential rally in XAU/USD.
- EUR/USD: The inverse relationship between the EUR and USD means that a bearish DXY could propel EUR/USD higher.
Conclusion:
The bearish indicators and upcoming economic reports suggest that the US Dollar Index is likely to face continued downward pressure. This presents an excellent opportunity to short DXY, particularly if upcoming data underperforms.
📉 2. EUR/USD
Potential Direction:
- 📉 Bearish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure, although the overall trend has been somewhat bullish. At the pivot level of 1.1195, the pair is battling a crucial resistance area. This level represents a multi-swing high resistance that has held firm during several attempts to break higher. The strength of this level makes it a key area to watch for further downside.
Technical Indicators Used:
- Bollinger Bands: EUR/USD is currently riding the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests that the price is overbought. A return toward the mid-band could signal a pullback.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is in the overbought zone, signaling that buying strength is likely weakening. A bearish divergence has been noted, further reinforcing a potential reversal.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the last significant upward swing supports the notion that EUR/USD may pull back toward the 1.1124 level.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting EUR/USD:
- [09:45 EUR] Consumer Confidence (Sep): Weak consumer confidence in the Eurozone could put downward pressure on the euro.
- [10:00 EUR] Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug): Disappointing retail sales data would likely drive the euro lower, favoring the bears in EUR/USD trades.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- EUR/GBP: A weak euro against the USD could spill over into other currency pairs like EUR/GBP, where bearish sentiment could intensify.
- USD/CHF: As a safe-haven currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF) could strengthen if the EUR falls, pushing USD/CHF higher.
Conclusion:
With technical indicators signaling overbought conditions and key resistance levels holding firm, a bearish outlook on EUR/USD appears strong. Short positions may be advantageous, particularly with upcoming economic data likely to influence sentiment.
📈 3. EUR/JPY
Potential Direction:
- 📈 Bullish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
EUR/JPY is in a bullish trend, driven by both technical and fundamental factors. The current pivot at 158.61 represents a pullback support level that has previously held strong, suggesting that the pair is set to continue its upward trajectory.
Technical Indicators Used:
- RSI: RSI remains well above 50, a key level in determining bullish momentum. There are no signs of divergence, supporting continued upward movement.
- MACD: The MACD line is comfortably above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. Additionally, the histogram has increased, suggesting growing strength.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, a strong indicator that the pair is in a bullish phase and likely to continue higher.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting EUR/JPY:
- [02:50 JPY] BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: A dovish stance from the Bank of Japan could further weaken the yen, boosting EUR/JPY higher.
- [10:00 EUR] German IFO Business Climate: Strong numbers here could add fuel to the euro’s upward momentum, pushing EUR/JPY even higher.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- USD/JPY: Any yen weakness across the board could similarly drive USD/JPY higher, correlating with gains in EUR/JPY.
- EUR/GBP: A strong EUR/JPY may also reflect bullish sentiment in EUR/GBP, particularly if EUR strength persists.
Conclusion:
With strong technical indicators and fundamental support from economic events, the outlook for EUR/JPY remains bullish. Buying opportunities on pullbacks to support levels could yield significant gains.
📉 4. EUR/GBP
Potential Direction:
- 📉 Bearish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
EUR/GBP is showing signs of bearish continuation, with the current pivot level at 0.8385 acting as a 50% Fibonacci Retracement. This suggests that the pair could continue lower, as the retracement level provides solid resistance.
Technical Indicators Used:
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is well below the cloud, indicating that bearish momentum remains strong. As long as the price remains beneath the cloud, the outlook remains negative.
- RSI: The RSI has dipped below 50, indicating a bearish shift in momentum. This coincides with a downtrend in price, reinforcing the case for continued downside.
- Parabolic SAR: The SAR is positioned above the current price level, suggesting that the bearish trend is intact.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting EUR/GBP:
- [10:30 GBP] BoE’s Greene Speech: Hawkish comments from the BoE could further pressure EUR/GBP lower as investors favor the pound over the euro.
- [11:00 EUR] Economic Bulletin: Negative data from the Eurozone’s Economic Bulletin would likely exacerbate selling pressure on EUR/GBP.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- GBP/USD: A strengthening GBP could push EUR/GBP lower, as traders prefer the British currency.
- EUR/USD: If the euro weakens against the dollar, this could spill over into EUR/GBP, driving it further down.
Conclusion:
The bearish signals in EUR/GBP are clear, supported by technical indicators and a weak economic outlook for the euro. Shorting EUR/GBP appears to be the most favorable strategy at this time.
📉 5. GBP/USD
Potential Direction:
- 📉 Bearish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
GBP/USD is facing significant resistance at 1.3429, which corresponds to the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension. This suggests that the pair may struggle to move higher and could reverse direction in the near term.
Technical Indicators Used:
- Parabolic SAR: The SAR has flipped to show a downtrend, reinforcing the likelihood of bearish momentum.
- RSI: The RSI is nearing overbought territory, indicating that the price could soon reverse. A bearish divergence has already appeared, adding weight to the case for a downside move.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 1.3262 level represents 38.2% Fibonacci Support, a potential area where the price could stabilize if it moves lower.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting GBP/USD:
- [15:30 USD] Durable Goods Orders (Aug): Weak data here would further strengthen the bearish case for GBP/USD, as poor U.S. economic performance could weigh on the dollar.
- [10:30 CHF] SNB Interest Rate Decision: The decision could affect GBP/CHF, indirectly impacting GBP/USD sentiment.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- GBP/JPY: A downturn in GBP/USD could lead to a similar move in GBP/JPY, particularly if the yen strengthens.
- DXY: A stronger dollar index could push GBP/USD lower, as the greenback gains favor with investors.
Conclusion:
With strong resistance at key Fibonacci levels and technical indicators signaling a potential reversal, GBP/USD appears to be a prime candidate for short trades.
📉 6. GBP/JPY
Potential Direction:
- 📉 Bearish
Detailed Technical Analysis:
GBP/JPY is facing resistance at 193.30, a multi-swing high that could act as a barrier for further upward movement. This level is also aligned with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, further reinforcing the possibility of a pullback.
Technical Indicators Used:
- MACD: The MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, suggesting that downside momentum is building.
- RSI: The RSI has reached overbought territory, signaling that the pair may soon reverse.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 189.24 level represents 38.2% Fibonacci Support, a key level to watch if the price moves lower.
Economic Calendar Events Impacting GBP/JPY:
- [16:20 USD] Fed’s Chair Powell speech: Any hawkish comments from Powell could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the yen, indirectly influencing GBP/JPY.
- [11:00 EUR] ECB’s President Lagarde speech: If Lagarde provides dovish commentary, it could weaken the euro, correlating with a potential GBP/JPY downturn.
Potential Correlating Assets:
- EUR/JPY: Weakness in EUR/JPY could spill over into GBP/JPY, especially if the yen strengthens across the board.
- USD/JPY: A strengthening yen could push both GBP/JPY and USD/JPY lower.
Conclusion:
GBP/JPY is facing key resistance levels and technical indicators are pointing toward a potential pullback. Short positions are favored in the near term.
USD/CHF Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 0.8515
The pivot is anchored by a multi-swing high resistance and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, signaling a robust resistance zone. This is a level where sellers could step in to drive the price lower. - 1st Support: 0.8430
This level represents a swing low support, which has historically acted as a cushion for price declines. If the price reaches here, we might see a consolidation or a reversal. - 1st Resistance: 0.8564
The 50% Fibonacci retracement at this level suggests a confluence of resistance, where buyers might struggle to push the price higher.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently in the neutral zone, but a drop below 40 would confirm bearish momentum.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Signaling bearish divergence, indicating that momentum is waning on bullish attempts.
- Bollinger Bands: The price is riding the lower band, supporting the bearish outlook, with potential volatility spikes.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 16:20 USD Fed’s Chair Powell Speech: Hawkish comments could limit the downside for USD/CHF, while dovish tones may accelerate the bearish trend, pushing the pair lower toward the first support.
- US GDP Growth: If the GDP figures disappoint, it would reinforce the bearish scenario as traders anticipate a weaker dollar.
Correlated Assets:
- Gold (XAU/USD): Typically inversely correlated to USD. A falling USD could trigger a rally in gold prices.
- US Dollar Index (DXY): If DXY declines, it could signal continued bearish pressure on USD/CHF.
USD/JPY Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 142.84
This is a critical overlap support, a level where buyers have historically stepped in to push the price higher. - 1st Support: 141.06
Additional support comes from this overlap level, aligning with previous consolidation zones. - 1st Resistance: 145.43
The 78.60% Fibonacci retracement provides resistance. This level could act as a ceiling for the pair’s bullish momentum.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently above 50, indicating continued bullish strength, but approaching overbought levels.
- MACD: Bullish crossover, reinforcing the upside momentum.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are key to identifying bullish continuation.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 16:20 USD Fed’s Chair Powell Speech: A hawkish tone could accelerate the bullish trend, potentially pushing the pair toward the first resistance.
- US Inflation Data: Higher inflation numbers could fuel expectations for further rate hikes, boosting USD/JPY.
Correlated Assets:
- Nikkei 225: A bullish USD/JPY is often accompanied by rising Japanese equity indices like the Nikkei.
- US Treasury Yields: Rising yields typically support a bullish USD/JPY, as higher yields attract foreign investors.
USD/CAD Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 1.3492
This level serves as overlap resistance, closely aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, signaling a potential reversal zone. - 1st Support: 1.3419
A swing-low support that has provided a floor for prices in the past. - 1st Resistance: 1.3545
The 50% Fibonacci retracement indicates a significant resistance level that could halt bullish attempts.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching the oversold zone, which could trigger a temporary bounce.
- MACD: Bearish signal line crossover, affirming downward pressure.
- Fibonacci Levels: 38.2% and 50% retracement levels indicate likely areas of reversal.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 16:20 USD Fed’s Chair Powell Speech: A hawkish Powell could weaken the CAD further, but a dovish tone may amplify the pair’s downside.
- Crude Oil Inventories: As Canada is a major oil exporter, falling oil prices could support the bearish view on USD/CAD.
Correlated Assets:
- WTI Crude Oil: USD/CAD often inversely correlates with oil prices. A rally in oil could push USD/CAD lower.
- Canadian Dollar Index (CADX): Watching CAD strength in broader markets will confirm bearish USD/CAD moves.
AUD/USD Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 0.6859
This pullback support is a strong area for buyers, reinforced by historical demand. - 1st Support: 0.6794
An overlap support aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, providing a solid base. - 1st Resistance: 0.6921
The 127.2% Fibonacci extension highlights this as a potential exhaustion level for bullish movement.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Holding above 50, confirming bullish sentiment.
- MACD: Positive momentum, indicating the potential for further upside.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 127.2% extension could provide the next bullish target.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 02:00 AUD RBA Governor’s Speech: Any dovish tone from the RBA could challenge the bullish scenario, but if the Governor signals economic resilience, AUD could strengthen further.
Correlated Assets:
- Gold (XAU/USD): The AUD tends to follow the direction of gold, especially during risk-on sentiment.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY): Australia’s economy is sensitive to China. A strengthening Yuan could support AUD.
NZD/USD Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 0.6357
The pivot is a swing-high resistance near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. - 1st Support: 0.6292
Pullback support aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting the potential for a bounce. - 1st Resistance: 0.6402
A swing-high resistance providing a ceiling for further bullish movement.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Starting to dip from overbought territory, indicating a possible bearish pullback.
- MACD: Positive, but flattening momentum suggests the rally may stall.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 161.8% extension indicates the potential limit for the current uptrend.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 22:45 NZD Business Confidence: If the report shows weak business sentiment, the NZD could see a bearish pullback.
Correlated Assets:
- AUD/NZD: A rising AUD may signal weakness in NZD/USD.
- Chinese Economic Data: Since New Zealand’s economy is heavily linked to China, weak Chinese data could lead to NZD weakness.
US30 (Dow Jones) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 42,178.61
This pullback resistance could break with strong bullish momentum, allowing for continued upward movement. - 1st Support: 41,590.34
An overlap support that will act as a crucial level if prices pull back. - 1st Resistance: 42,596.32
The 78.6% projection and 161.8% extension confluence provide a target for the next bullish wave.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Firmly in bullish territory.
- MACD: Positive, supporting further upward movement.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 16:20 USD Powell’s Speech: If Powell adopts a bullish stance on economic growth, expect US30 to rise toward the first resistance.
Correlated Assets:
- S&P 500 (US500): Correlated with US indices, particularly during risk-on phases. A bullish US30 is likely to lift the S&P 500 as well.
DE40 (DAX) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 18,653.80
Overlap support aligned with a confluence of Fibonacci levels (50% retracement, 100% projection) suggesting a possible bullish bounce. - 1st Support: 18,424.10
Pullback support with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, providing a solid floor. - 1st Resistance: 19,049.50
Resistance near the all-time high, aligned with Fibonacci projections.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Bullish, indicating further room for the price to rise.
- MACD: Positive momentum is increasing.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 11:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech: If the ECB signals continued economic growth, expect the DAX to rise further.
Correlated Assets:
- Euro (EUR/USD): A rising DAX often accompanies EUR strength during risk-on phases.
US500 (S&P 500) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 5,730.70
A pullback resistance that may break with sustained bullish momentum. - 1st Support: 5,653.70
Pullback support aligned with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. - 1st Resistance: 5,831.35
A 78.6% projection and 161.8% extension form a confluence of resistance.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Bullish, with momentum in favor of the bulls.
- MACD: Positive, reinforcing the potential for further gains.
Economic Calendar Events:
- 16:20 USD Powell’s Speech: A bullish tone from Powell could push the S&P toward the first resistance.
Correlated Assets:
- NASDAQ (US100): Typically rises alongside the S&P 500 during risk-on phases.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 64,376.72
This level acts as a significant multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential reversal point for sellers. If the price approaches this level, traders may look to enter short positions as selling pressure could intensify. - 1st Support: 62,723.05
This is identified as an overlap support, which has historically provided a cushion against price declines. A break below this level could indicate further bearish movement. - 1st Resistance: 67,053.33
This area is marked by overlap resistance, suggesting a significant barrier for bulls attempting to push the price higher.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): If RSI begins to diverge negatively while approaching the pivot, this could indicate a bearish reversal.
- MACD: A bearish crossover below the signal line at higher price levels would provide confirmation for a potential downturn.
Economic Calendar Events:
- Fed Interest Rate Decision: A hawkish tone from the Fed could strengthen the USD and negatively impact BTC prices.
- Bitcoin Futures Expiry: Dates of futures expiries often correlate with increased volatility in Bitcoin prices.
Correlated Assets:
- Gold (XAU/USD): If Bitcoin prices fall, gold may strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets.
- Equity Markets: A bearish Bitcoin could also impact tech stocks negatively, especially those closely tied to cryptocurrency markets.
ETH/USD (Ethereum) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 2,575.58
This level is recognized as an overlap support and aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting strong buying interest may emerge at this point. - 1st Support: 2,457.10
This is a pullback support that is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, providing a key level for potential price stabilization. - 1st Resistance: 2,671.88
This level is seen as overlap resistance and aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential cap for bullish momentum.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: If RSI remains above 50 as the price approaches the pivot, this could confirm ongoing bullish sentiment.
- MACD: A positive momentum shift could indicate that bullish buyers are gaining control over the price action.
Economic Calendar Events:
- Ethereum Network Upgrades: Positive news surrounding network upgrades (e.g., EIP implementation) can drive Ethereum prices higher.
- Overall Crypto Market Sentiment: Events affecting the broader crypto market sentiment, such as regulatory news, can influence ETH’s price direction.
Correlated Assets:
- BTC/USD: Ethereum often follows Bitcoin’s movements; if BTC rallies, ETH is likely to gain as well.
- DeFi Tokens: Prices of tokens in the decentralized finance space are often correlated with Ethereum’s price movements.
WTI/USD (Oil) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 72.61
Identified as an overlap resistance, suggesting that price action near this level could indicate strong selling pressure. - 1st Support: 69.89
A pullback support aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a significant level for potential price stabilization. - 1st Resistance: 75.38
This level, marked by overlap resistance and aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, is crucial as it might act as a ceiling for price increases.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: If RSI approaches overbought territory near the pivot, it may signal a potential reversal.
- MACD: A bearish crossover could indicate that the selling momentum is gaining traction.
Economic Calendar Events:
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories Report: Surprises in inventory changes can lead to significant price volatility in WTI.
- Geopolitical Events: Any conflict or disruptions in oil-producing regions can greatly influence oil prices.
Correlated Assets:
- Canadian Dollar (CAD): A decline in WTI prices typically leads to CAD weakening.
- Energy Stocks: Stocks of companies in the energy sector often correlate with WTI price movements.
XAU/USD (Gold) Detailed Analysis:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Technical Strategy:
- Pivot Level: 2,665.11
This level acts as a swing high resistance and also coincides with a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong potential barrier to further price increases. - 1st Support: 2,601.49
Recognized as a pullback support, this level may offer a buffer if the price starts to decline. - 1st Resistance: 2,785.47
The 78.60% Fibonacci projection marks this as a key resistance level that could limit upside movements.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: A reading below 50 as prices approach the pivot could confirm bearish sentiment.
- MACD: A bearish crossover near the pivot would signal further downside risk for gold.
Economic Calendar Events:
- US Dollar Strength: Any economic indicators suggesting strength in the USD (e.g., strong employment data) can put downward pressure on gold prices.
- Inflation Data Releases: Higher inflation figures could lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge, impacting price.
Correlated Assets:
- Silver (XAG/USD): Gold and silver prices typically move in tandem; bearish movements in gold may indicate similar declines in silver.
- US Treasury Yields: Rising yields generally pressure gold prices lower, as opportunity costs increase.
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