Market Analysis and Trading Signals Today September 26 2024

Asset	Direction	Potential Move	Key Levels
DXY (US Dollar Index)	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 101.31, 1st Support: 100.24, 1st Resistance: 102.30
EUR/USD	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 1.1176, 1st Support: 1.1072, 1st Resistance: 1.1215
EUR/JPY	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 159.94, 1st Support: 158.41, 1st Resistance: 162.74
EUR/GBP	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 0.8385, 1st Support: 0.8321, 1st Resistance: 0.8453
GBP/USD	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 1.3429, 1st Support: 1.3262, 1st Resistance: 1.3680
GBP/JPY	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 193.30, 1st Support: 189.24, 1st Resistance: 195.96
USD/CHF	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 0.8564, 1st Support: 0.8402, 1st Resistance: 0.8692
USD/JPY	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 142.84, 1st Support: 141.06, 1st Resistance: 145.43
USD/CAD	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 1.3492, 1st Support: 1.3419, 1st Resistance: 1.3545
AUD/USD	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 0.6897, 1st Support: 0.6794, 1st Resistance: 0.6943
NZD/USD	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 0.6254, 1st Support: 0.6175, 1st Resistance: 0.6353
US30 (DJIA)	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 41,855.66, 1st Support: 41,590.34, 1st Resistance: 42,596.32
DE40 (DAX)	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 19,049.50, 1st Support: 18,653.80, 1st Resistance: 19,212.50
US500 (S&P 500)	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 5,730.70, 1st Support: 5,653.70, 1st Resistance: 5,831.35
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 62,723.05, 1st Support: 61,198.85, 1st Resistance: 64,376.72
ETH/USD (Ethereum)	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 2,575.58, 1st Support: 2,457.10, 1st Resistance: 2,671.88
WTI/USD (Oil)	Bullish 📈	Rise to 1st Resistance	Pivot: 69.89, 1st Support: 68.13, 1st Resistance: 72.61
XAU/USD (Gold)	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 2,665.11, 1st Support: 2,601.49, 1st Resistance: 2,678.34
XAG/USD (Silver)	Bearish 📉	Drop to 1st Support	Pivot: 24.00, 1st Support: 23.67, 1st Resistance: 24.40

Thursday 26th September 2024: Technical Outlook and Review

DXY (US Dollar Index): Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

The DXY (US Dollar Index) is facing resistance at the pivot level of 101.31, which is an overlap resistance point. This suggests that bearish forces are gaining strength. The index has struggled to break through this resistance, indicating potential downside movement towards the 1st support level of 100.24.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently below 50, suggesting bearish momentum. A sustained position below this level could indicate further downward pressure.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A bearish crossover has occurred, signaling potential downside. The histogram is also showing bearish divergence.
• Fibonacci Retracement: The price is approaching the 50% retracement level from its recent highs, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Technical Strategy:

• Short positions could be considered at the current price level with a target at the 1st support level of 100.24.
• A stop loss should be placed just above the pivot at 101.31 to protect against potential upside breakouts.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US GDP Annualized (Q2): This event on Thursday could significantly affect the USD. A weaker-than-expected figure could drive the index lower.
• Durable Goods Orders (August): Any deviation from expectations here could lead to further downside for the DXY.

Correlating Assets:

• Gold (XAU/USD): Typically moves inversely to the DXY. A bearish move in the DXY could strengthen gold prices.
• EUR/USD: A weakening DXY often leads to a rise in EUR/USD.

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EUR/USD: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish, but faces short-term selling pressure

Despite the long-term bullish momentum, EUR/USD is showing signs of a pullback near the pivot level of 1.1176, which serves as an overlap resistance point. The pair is likely to drop towards the 1st support level of 1.1072, reinforced by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Bollinger Bands: The price is close to the upper band, which suggests a possible mean reversion.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish crossover in overbought territory, signaling a potential pullback.
• 50-day & 200-day Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is still above the 200-day MA, indicating a long-term bullish trend. However, a short-term retracement is possible.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target towards the 1st support at 1.1072.
• A stop loss should be placed slightly above the pivot at 1.1176 to avoid being stopped out by a minor upside fluctuation.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Eurozone M3 Money Supply & Consumer Confidence: These reports are pivotal for Euro’s direction. Weak numbers could drive the EUR/USD lower.
• US GDP & Durable Goods Orders: If US economic data beats expectations, the dollar could strengthen, pushing EUR/USD lower.

Correlating Assets:

• DXY: A strong dollar would lead to a bearish EUR/USD.
• GBP/USD: Often moves in tandem with EUR/USD due to shared USD influence.

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EUR/JPY: Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

EUR/JPY is maintaining its bullish momentum, trading above the pivot level of 159.94. A further rise towards the 1st resistance level at 162.74 is likely, driven by a strong underlying uptrend and favorable economic conditions for the Euro.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• RSI: Above 60, indicating strong bullish momentum.
• Ichimoku Cloud: The price is well above the Kumo, signaling a clear bullish trend.
• ADX (Average Directional Index): Rising, indicating the trend’s strength is growing.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the current price with a target towards 162.74, using the first resistance as the key level.
• A stop loss can be placed below the pivot at 159.94.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (September): If inflation data comes in strong, the JPY could weaken further, pushing EUR/JPY higher.
• European Retail Sales: Positive retail sales data in Europe would further support the bullish case for EUR/JPY.

Correlating Assets:

• Nikkei 225: A rise in Japan’s stock index often correlates with a weaker yen, supporting a rise in EUR/JPY.
• EUR/USD: A strong Euro across pairs could push EUR/JPY even higher.

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EUR/GBP: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

The EUR/GBP pair is struggling around the pivot level of 0.8385. The pair shows clear bearish momentum as it approaches the 1st support level at 0.8321, which serves as a potential target for sellers.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• MACD: Bearish divergence, signaling downside potential.
• RSI: Below 50, confirming bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci Retracement: The price is currently respecting the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which suggests more downside potential.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target towards 0.8321.
• Stop loss should be placed above 0.8385 to protect from upside risks.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• UK GDP: A stronger-than-expected UK GDP release could push EUR/GBP further lower.
• European Economic Confidence: A decline in confidence could support the bearish outlook for EUR/GBP.

Correlating Assets:

• GBP/USD: A stronger pound could lead to a further drop in EUR/GBP.
• EUR/USD: A drop in EUR/USD could correlate with further weakness in EUR/GBP.

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GBP/USD: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

GBP/USD is showing signs of weakness, with the price hovering below the pivot at 1.3429. The pair is likely to drop towards the 1st support level of 1.3262, driven by USD strength and a weaker pound outlook.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Bollinger Bands: The price is near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.
• MACD: Bearish crossover, signaling downside pressure.
• RSI: Below 50, confirming bearish momentum.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target towards 1.3262.
• A stop loss should be placed above 1.3429.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• UK Retail Sales: A weak retail sales report could push GBP/USD lower.
• US Durable Goods Orders & GDP: Strong US data could further pressure the pair.

Correlating Assets:

• DXY: A stronger DXY could lead to a further drop in GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP: A weaker pound could also lead to a decline in EUR/GBP.

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GBP/JPY: Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

GBP/JPY is trading with bullish momentum, supported by a strong GBP and weaker JPY. The pair is likely to rise towards the 1st resistance at 148.67, driven by an upward trend.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• RSI: Above 60, confirming bullish momentum.
• Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the Kumo, signaling a clear uptrend.
• Fibonacci Extension: The pair is approaching the 127.2% extension level, suggesting more upside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the current price with a target at 148.67.
• A stop loss should be placed below the pivot at 146.50.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Japanese CPI: Weaker CPI could push GBP/JPY higher.
• UK GDP & Retail Sales: Strong data could further support the bullish case.

Correlating Assets:

• Nikkei 225: A weaker JPY typically correlates with a rising Nikkei 225.
• EUR/JPY: A rise in EUR/JPY could support GBP/JPY.

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USD/CHF: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

USD/CHF is exhibiting bearish momentum, with the price struggling to break above the pivot level of 0.9435. A move lower towards the 1st support level at 0.9281 is expected.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• RSI: Below 50, indicating bearish pressure.
• MACD: Bearish divergence, signaling downside potential.
• Fibonacci Retracement: The price is approaching the 50% retracement, suggesting further downside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target at 0.9281.
• A stop loss should be placed above 0.9435.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Swiss KOF Leading Indicators: Weak data could further support the bearish case for USD/CHF.
• US GDP & Durable Goods Orders: Strong US data could limit downside for USD/CHF.

Correlating Assets:

• Gold (XAU/USD): A weaker USD typically strengthens gold.
• EUR/USD: A stronger Euro could lead to further downside for USD/CHF.

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USD/JPY: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

USD/JPY is showing clear bearish signals, trading below the pivot level of 109.76. The pair is likely to drop towards the 1st support at 108.47 driven by USD weakness and a strengthening yen.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• RSI: Below 50, confirming bearish momentum.
• Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the Kumo, indicating a clear downtrend.
• MACD: Bearish crossover, signaling downside potential.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target at 108.47.
• A stop loss should be placed above 109.76.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Japanese CPI & Retail Sales: Positive data could push USD/JPY lower.
• US GDP: Strong data could limit downside, but overall bearish momentum remains.

Correlating Assets:

• Nikkei 225: A weaker yen typically strengthens the Nikkei.
• DXY: A weak USD could further push USD/JPY down.

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Asset	Trade Signal	Technical Outlook
DXY (US Dollar Index)	Sell 📉	Bearish
EUR/USD	Sell 📉	Bearish
EUR/JPY	Buy 📈	Bullish
EUR/GBP	Sell 📉	Bearish
GBP/USD	Sell 📉	Bearish
GBP/JPY	Buy 📈	Bullish
USD/CHF	Sell 📉	Bearish
USD/JPY	Sell 📉	Bearish

USD/CAD: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

USD/CAD is showing bearish momentum, having reversed close to the pivot level. The pair could fall towards the 1st support at 1.3419.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The pivot aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting increased selling pressure.
• RSI: Below 50, indicating bearish pressure.
• MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside potential.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target at 1.3419.
• Place a stop loss above the pivot at 1.3545.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US GDP & Canadian Trade Balance: Strong US data could limit downside, while weak Canadian data could push USD/CAD lower.

Correlating Assets:

• Crude Oil: Strong oil prices could lead to CAD strength, pushing USD/CAD down.
• EUR/CAD: A weaker Euro could further push CAD higher.

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AUD/USD: Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

AUD/USD is rising towards the pivot level at 0.6897, and could potentially reverse from here towards the 1st support at 0.6794.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Projection: The pivot aligns with the 61.8% projection, signaling potential for a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is near the upper band, indicating potential reversal.
• RSI: Near overbought levels, signaling a possible pullback.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target at 0.6794.
• Place a stop loss above the pivot at 0.6943.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Australian Employment Data: Strong data could limit the downside, while weak data could push AUD/USD lower.
• US GDP: A strong US GDP print could support a bearish case.

Correlating Assets:

• Gold (XAU/USD): AUD/USD tends to correlate positively with gold prices, meaning higher gold could push AUD higher.
• NZD/USD: Strength in NZD could support AUD/USD.

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NZD/USD: Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

NZD/USD has bounced off the pivot level and is expected to rise towards the 1st resistance at 0.6353.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The pivot aligns with the 38.2% retracement, suggesting upside potential.
• RSI: Above 50, confirming bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is near the middle band, indicating neutral momentum but potential for further upside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 0.6353.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 0.6175.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• New Zealand Trade Balance: A positive trade balance could push NZD/USD higher.
• US Durable Goods Orders: Strong US data may limit the upside.

Correlating Assets:

• NZD/JPY: A strong NZD against JPY could further support NZD/USD.
• AUD/NZD: Weakness in AUD could support strength in NZD/USD.

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US30 (Dow Jones): Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

The US30 index has bounced off the pivot level and is expected to rise towards the 1st resistance at 42,596.32.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Levels: The pivot aligns with the 23.6% retracement level, indicating potential for upside.
• RSI: Above 60, confirming bullish momentum.
• MACD: Bullish crossover, signaling further upside potential.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 42,596.32.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 41,590.34.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: Positive data could push the Dow Jones higher.
• US GDP Growth: Strong growth figures could fuel bullish momentum.

Correlating Assets:

• US500 (S&P 500): The US500 and US30 tend to move in tandem. A bullish S&P 500 could indicate upside for the US30.
• Gold (XAU/USD): An inverse correlation exists. Rising US equities could lead to a fall in gold prices.

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DE40 (DAX): Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

The DAX index is approaching the pivot level and could reverse to fall towards the 1st support at 18,653.80.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Levels: The pivot aligns with the all-time high and 50% retracement, signaling a potential for reversal.
• RSI: Near 50, showing neutral momentum but indicating the possibility of a bearish reversal.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is near the upper band, which could signal a reversal to the downside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the pivot with a target at 18,653.80.
• Place a stop loss above the pivot at 19,212.50.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• German Business Climate Data: Weak sentiment could push the DAX lower.
• ECB Monetary Policy Decision: Hawkish ECB policy could limit downside risk, but weak economic data may still cause a fall.

Correlating Assets:

• EUR/USD: A stronger Euro could lead to a weaker DAX, as it might impact Germany’s export sector.
• US30 (DJIA): Weakness in US equities could impact European markets like the DAX.

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US500 (S&P 500): Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

The S&P 500 is near the pivot level and could break upwards to test the 1st resistance at 5,831.35.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Levels: The pivot aligns with the 61.8% projection, signaling strong bullish potential.
• RSI: Above 60, confirming strong buying momentum.
• MACD: Bullish crossover, signaling potential upside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 5,831.35.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 5,653.70.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US Nonfarm Payrolls & US GDP: Strong data could fuel a further rally in US equities.

Correlating Assets:

• US30 (DJIA): A bullish move in the Dow could support further gains in the S&P 500.
• Nasdaq (NDX): Tech-heavy Nasdaq tends to move in tandem with the S&P 500.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin): Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Bitcoin has bounced off the pivot level at 62,723.05, suggesting that buying interest could increase, potentially driving the price towards the 1st resistance at 64,376.72.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The pivot aligns with key overlap support, confirming potential bullish rebound.
• RSI: Currently neutral at 50, indicating no overbought/oversold conditions.
• MACD: Neutral, but with potential for a bullish crossover.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near the middle band, suggesting consolidation with potential upside.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 64,376.72.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 61,198.85.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US Federal Reserve Meeting: Hawkish tones may put pressure on BTC, while dovish remarks could drive further upside.
• Bitcoin ETF Approval: Any positive regulatory news could fuel further upside.

Correlating Assets:

• ETH/USD (Ethereum): Ethereum’s movement often correlates with Bitcoin, meaning strength in ETH could push BTC higher.
• Nasdaq (NDX): Bitcoin has shown increasing correlation with tech stocks. A rally in Nasdaq could provide positive sentiment for BTC.

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ETH/USD (Ethereum): Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Ethereum has made a bullish bounce off the pivot level at 2,575.58 and could rise towards the 1st resistance at 2,671.88.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The pivot aligns with the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting upside potential.
• RSI: Near 55, confirming mild bullish momentum.
• MACD: Neutral but showing signs of a potential bullish crossover.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading within the cloud, signaling potential for a breakout.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 2,671.88.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 2,457.10.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• Ethereum 2.0 Updates: News regarding ETH’s staking and upgrade timeline could increase buying pressure.
• US CPI Data: Higher inflation may drive further interest in Ethereum as a hedge against inflation.

Correlating Assets:

• BTC/USD: Bitcoin’s price action often leads Ethereum. A bullish Bitcoin could confirm upside potential for Ethereum.
• DeFi Tokens: Positive developments in decentralized finance (DeFi) could also drive demand for ETH.

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WTI/USD (Crude Oil): Bullish 📈

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

WTI is trading close to the pivot level at 69.89, and could potentially make a bullish bounce to rise towards the 1st resistance at 72.61.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Retracement: The pivot aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting buying interest.
• RSI: Neutral around 50, indicating no overbought/oversold conditions.
• Moving Averages: Price is testing the 50-day moving average, a key level that may act as support.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider buying near the pivot with a target at 72.61.
• Place a stop loss below the pivot at 68.13.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US Crude Oil Inventory Report: A larger-than-expected drawdown could push oil prices higher.
• OPEC Meeting: Production cuts could fuel a bullish rally.

Correlating Assets:

• CAD/USD: Oil and the Canadian Dollar are positively correlated. A rise in oil could support CAD.
• Natural Gas (NG/USD): Rising natural gas prices could push oil higher due to energy sector correlations.

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XAU/USD (Gold): Bearish 📉

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish

Gold could potentially continue its bearish move towards the 1st support at 2601.49 after facing strong resistance near 2715.19.

Technical Indicators & Strategies:

• Fibonacci Projection: The pivot aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a key resistance level.
• RSI: Above 60, confirming bullish momentum but nearing overbought conditions.
• MACD: Bearish divergence, suggesting potential downside despite bullish momentum.

Technical Strategy:

• Consider selling near the resistance at 2715.19, with a target at 2601.49.
• Place a stop loss above the resistance at 2715.19.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Events:

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: A strong report could drive the USD higher and put downward pressure on gold.
• US Inflation Data (CPI): Rising inflation could limit the downside in gold, as it is often seen as a hedge.

Correlating Assets:

• US Dollar (DXY): Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar Index. A stronger USD could push gold lower.
• Silver (XAG/USD): Gold and silver tend to move together, so a drop in silver could signal a bearish continuation for gold.

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