Welcome to our Market Technical Analysis and Today’s Trading Signals for Friday, September 27th, 2024. This comprehensive report delivers expert insights into major currency pairs, indices, and commodities, utilizing advanced technical indicators, chart patterns, and Fibonacci retracements to forecast market movements. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or an investor seeking strategic guidance, our analysis integrates key economic calendar events to provide a holistic view of the market dynamics. Explore our meticulously structured review to make informed trading decisions, optimize your investment strategies, and stay ahead in the ever-evolving financial markets.
Table of Contents
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DXY (US Dollar Index)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: Price could react bearishly from the pivot level and head toward the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 101.37 (Overlap resistance + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 100.24 (Swing low support)
- 1st Resistance: 102.16 (Pullback resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Near oversold territory (currently around 30), suggesting a temporary support level.
- MACD: Bearish crossover supports the potential downside move.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging the lower band, confirming bearish momentum.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing candle near pivot suggests further downside pressure.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Doji formation near the 102.16 resistance, indicating indecision but potential for bearish reversal.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE Price Index (Sept 29): Higher-than-expected inflation could give DXY temporary support, pushing it toward resistance before a likely downturn due to Fed uncertainty about further rate hikes.
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct 4): A disappointing jobs report could weaken the dollar further, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Correlations:
- A weakening DXY often correlates with stronger commodities like gold (XAU/USD), oil (WTI), and weaker USD currency pairs.
- US Equities (S&P 500) could see bullish momentum as a weaker dollar reduces pressure on US multinational earnings.
EUR/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: The price may see a bearish reaction at the pivot and drop towards the 1st support level.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 1.1201 (Multi-swing high resistance)
- 1st Support: 1.1072 (Overlap support + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 1.1273 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish divergence at overbought levels, signaling a potential correction.
- RSI: Approaching 70 (overbought), reinforcing bearish bias.
- Chart Patterns:
- Double Top near the pivot, suggesting a bearish reversal is imminent.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Evening Star formation could be forming near the 1.1273 resistance level.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Eurozone CPI (Sept 29): If inflation comes in lower than expected, EUR could weaken significantly, reinforcing the bearish EUR/USD outlook.
- US Core PCE Price Index: A strong print may lead to more Fed hawkishness, further weighing on EUR/USD.
Correlations:
- A weaker Euro could lead to stronger USD pairs, particularly EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP, and exert downward pressure on commodities like oil.
EUR/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Bullish continuation expected as the price could rise toward 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 161.03 (Overlap support)
- 1st Support: 158.55 (Overlap support)
- 1st Resistance: 163.85 (Swing high resistance + 78.6% Fibonacci projection)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Strong bullish momentum (hovering around 65), reinforcing upside.
- MACD: Bullish crossover suggests a continuation higher.
- Chart Patterns:
- Ascending Triangle breakout could lead to further bullish momentum toward 163.85.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Marubozu confirms strong buying interest, signaling further upside potential.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Eurozone CPI: If inflation falls below expectations, it may weaken the Euro slightly, but the Yen’s fundamental weakness could override and support the bullish EUR/JPY setup.
- Japan Industrial Production (Sept 30): Lower-than-expected production figures could weaken JPY further, reinforcing bullish EUR/JPY momentum.
Correlations:
- Strength in EUR/JPY could reinforce a broader weak JPY environment, supporting other JPY pairs like USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.
EUR/GBP
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: Price could make a bearish reaction off the pivot, potentially dropping to the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 0.8385 (Pullback resistance + 50% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 0.8321 (Swing low support)
- 1st Resistance: 0.8453 (Overlap resistance)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching oversold territory, though not there yet (currently at 35).
- MACD: Bearish crossover below the zero line indicates continued downside.
- Chart Patterns:
- Descending Triangle near 0.8453, suggesting a continuation lower.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Harami near pivot confirms a potential downward move.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- UK GDP Data (Sept 28): Stronger-than-expected growth could weigh heavily on EUR/GBP as the pound strengthens.
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sept 30): Rising unemployment could accelerate the bearish trend for EUR/GBP.
Correlations:
- A weak Euro could push EUR/GBP lower, reinforcing GBP strength across other pairs such as GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.
GBP/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: Bearish continuation toward the 1st support is expected.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 1.3429 (Swing high resistance + 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
- 1st Support: 1.3262 (Overlap support)
- 1st Resistance: 1.3506 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- Stochastic: Bearish crossover in overbought territory indicates potential downside.
- 50-day SMA below 200-day SMA confirms a Death Cross.
- Chart Patterns:
- Head and Shoulders formation suggests further downside.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Evening Star near resistance reinforces the bearish trend.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- UK GDP Data: A poor print could trigger further GBP weakness, supporting the bearish view.
- US Core PCE: A strong result may bolster the USD, increasing downside pressure on GBP/USD.
Correlations:
- GBP weakness across GBP crosses (EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY) likely if bearish continuation materializes.
GBP/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Bullish continuation expected toward the 1st resistance level.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 193.30 (Pullback support)
- 1st Support: 190.51 (Overlap support)
- 1st Resistance: 195.96 (Pullback resistance + 127.2% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Trending upward, hovering around 60.
- MACD: Bullish crossover signals further upward pressure.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish Flag formation indicates potential breakout higher.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Marubozu suggests strong buying interest near support.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Japan Industrial Production: Weak production numbers may weaken JPY, supporting further gains in GBP/JPY.
Correlations:
- Continued bullishness in GBP/JPY could mirror strength in other JPY pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
USD/CHF
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish (temporarily bearish)
- Current Scenario: Price could react bearishly from pivot and drop toward 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 0.8564 (Pullback resistance + 50% Fibonacci retracement + 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
- 1st Support: 0.8402 (Multi-swing low support)
- 1st Resistance: 0.8692 (Overlap resistance)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Near overbought, indicating possible short-term pullback.
- MACD: Weak bullish momentum, may turn bearish soon.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bearish Pennant suggests downside pressure.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing confirms short-term reversal.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Swiss CPI (Sept 30): A lower-than-expected print could weaken CHF further, providing relief to USD/CHF bulls.
- US Core PCE: Strong print could support the dollar, limiting downside moves.
Correlations:
- Gold (XAU/USD) could move higher if USD/CHF weakens further.
USD/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: The pair may see further bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance level.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 144.32 (Overlap support)
- 1st Support: 142.81 (Overlap support)
- 1st Resistance: 146.68 (Pullback resistance + 78.6% Fibonacci projection)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching overbought (around 70), but strong momentum remains intact.
- MACD: Bullish crossover indicates more upside.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish Flag points toward further upside.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Hammer near pivot confirms strong buying interest.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Japan Industrial Production: A poor report could push JPY lower, reinforcing USD/JPY bullish outlook.
Correlations:
- A bullish USD/JPY could mirror strength in other USD pairs like USD/CHF, and further JPY weakness across the board.
USD/CAD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: Price is trading near the pivot and may reverse bearishly to fall towards the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 1.3492 (Overlap resistance + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 1.3419 (Swing low support + 127.2% Fibonacci extension)
- 1st Resistance: 1.3545 (Overlap resistance + 50% Fibonacci retracement)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching 40, indicating further downside pressure.
- MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum.
- Chart Patterns:
- Descending Triangle signals potential for a continued bearish move.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing near pivot level suggests strong bearish sentiment.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Canada GDP Data (Sept 29): A stronger-than-expected GDP reading could support CAD strength, pushing USD/CAD lower.
- US Core PCE: A weak reading may push USD down, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Correlations:
- A weakening USD/CAD often correlates with rising oil prices due to Canada’s dependence on crude exports.
AUD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish (short-term correction)
- Current Scenario: Price has reversed from the pivot and may fall toward the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 0.6897 (Multi-swing high resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci projection)
- 1st Support: 0.6794 (Overlap support + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 0.6943 (Resistance + 100% Fibonacci projection)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Below 50, signaling potential further downside after a bearish reversal.
- MACD: Bearish divergence supports the bearish outlook.
- Chart Patterns:
- Double Top near the pivot level signals potential reversal lower.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing around resistance, confirming bearish sentiment.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- Australia Retail Sales (Sept 29): A disappointing report could weigh on AUD and push AUD/USD lower.
- US Core PCE: A strong reading could boost USD, further pushing AUD/USD down.
Correlations:
- AUD/USD is closely correlated with commodity prices, especially metals like iron ore.
NZD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price is falling toward the pivot and may bounce bullishly toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 0.6254 (Overlap support + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 0.6175 (Pullback support)
- 1st Resistance: 0.6353 (Swing high resistance + 78.6% Fibonacci projection)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Hovering around 60, indicating ongoing buying interest.
- MACD: Bullish crossover suggests further upward momentum.
- Chart Patterns:
- Inverse Head and Shoulders near the support level indicates a potential bullish breakout.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Hammer confirms potential bounce near the pivot.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- New Zealand Business Confidence (Sept 29): A positive print could further boost NZD and support a bullish breakout in NZD/USD.
- US Core PCE: A weaker-than-expected print may weaken USD, supporting the bullish case for NZD/USD.
Correlations:
- NZD/USD typically correlates with global risk sentiment and commodity prices, particularly agricultural commodities.
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially bounce upward toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 41,855.66 (Overlap support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 41,590.34 (Overlap support + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 42,596.32 (Resistance + confluence of 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Strong bullish momentum near 65.
- MACD: Bullish crossover continues to support upward movement.
- Chart Patterns:
- Ascending Channel indicates continuation of the uptrend.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Marubozu near the pivot suggests a potential bounce and further upward movement.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE: Lower inflation data could fuel risk-on sentiment, lifting equities like US30 higher.
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct 4): Positive job data could push US30 even higher.
Correlations:
- US30 often correlates with global equities, and a bullish move in the Dow could boost risk appetite across markets.
DE40 (DAX)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price could fall toward the pivot and bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 19,049.50 (Pullback support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 18,653.80 (Overlap support + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 19,541.68 (Resistance + confluence of 100% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Bullish, near overbought at 70.
- MACD: Bullish crossover confirms upward trend continuation.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish Flag suggests the trend will continue higher.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Engulfing near the pivot confirms strong buying interest.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- German CPI (Sept 29): Higher inflation could drive the DAX higher, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
- Eurozone Unemployment (Sept 30): Positive labor market data could further support the uptrend.
Correlations:
- DAX often correlates with global equity sentiment and is influenced by European economic data.
US500 (S&P 500)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price could fall toward the pivot and bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 5,691.50 (Overlap support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 5,622.40 (Pullback support + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 5,831.35 (Resistance + confluence of 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Strong momentum around 65.
- MACD: Bullish momentum continues.
- Chart Patterns:
- Ascending Triangle indicates potential for upward continuation.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Engulfing near the pivot confirms upward potential.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE: A weaker reading could fuel a risk-on rally, boosting equities further.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Positive data could push US500 to new highs.
Correlations:
- US500 typically correlates with global equity markets, with positive sentiment driving major indices like NASDAQ and DAX.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price may fall toward the pivot and bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 64,376.72 (Pullback support)
- 1st Support: 62,723.05 (Overlap support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 67,547.99 (Pullback resistance)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Bullish near 70, supporting further upside potential.
- MACD: Bullish crossover suggests continuation higher.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish Flag supports potential breakout above resistance.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Hammer confirms bounce potential near the pivot.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE: A weaker-than-expected print may support risk assets like Bitcoin, further pushing prices higher.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls: Positive jobs data could boost risk appetite, supporting BTC.
Correlations:
- BTC/USD often correlates with risk sentiment and broader movements in equities and commodities.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Current Scenario: Price is falling toward the pivot and could bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 2,575.58 (Overlap support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Support: 2,457.10 (Pullback support + 50% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 2,678.22 (Overlap resistance + 78.6% Fibonacci retracement)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Near 65, indicating bullish momentum remains intact.
- MACD: Bullish crossover supports continuation higher.
- Chart Patterns:
- Bullish Pennant suggests breakout potential above 1st resistance.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bullish Engulfing near the pivot signals potential upside.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE: A weaker-than-expected print may support Ethereum as risk appetite increases.
Correlations:
- ETH/USD often correlates with crypto market sentiment and broader equity market trends.
WTI/USD (Oil)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Current Scenario: Price is close to the pivot and could break bearishly toward the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 68.13 (Overlap support)
- 1st Support: 66.04 (Swing low support + 61.8% Fibonacci projection)
- 1st Resistance: 69.89 (Pullback resistance)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Near 40, signaling potential further downside.
- MACD: Bearish crossover confirms downward momentum.
- Chart Patterns:
- Descending Triangle indicates further downside potential.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing near the pivot suggests bearish continuation.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Crude Oil Inventories (Sept 28): Higher-than-expected inventory build could push oil prices lower.
Correlations:
- WTI/USD is closely linked to global oil demand and geopolitical tensions.
XAU/USD (Gold)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish (short-term bearish correction)
- Current Scenario: Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.
Key Levels:
- Pivot: 2685.56 (Swing high resistance + 161.8% Fibonacci extension)
- 1st Support: 2632.59 (Pullback support + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
- 1st Resistance: 2715.19 (100% Fibonacci Projection)
Technical Setups:
- Indicators:
- RSI: Near 70, suggesting potential pullback.
- MACD: Bearish divergence indicates short-term correction.
- Chart Patterns:
- Rising Wedge near resistance indicates possible bearish reversal.
- Candlestick Patterns:
- Bearish Engulfing near resistance suggests further downside.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- US Core PCE: A strong reading could push gold lower as real yields rise.
Correlations:
- Gold tends to move inversely to US Dollar strength and correlates with inflation expectations.
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