Unlocking the Secrets of Australia’s Declining Commodity Market: What You Need to Know
Discover the latest insights into Australia’s resource and energy export earnings as we delve into the impact of lower prices and a stronger currency on government revenue. Australia has slightly revised down its forecasts, with commodity export earnings expected to fall about 10% to A$372 billion for the year ended 30 June 2025. The decline is set to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, hitting A$354 billion.
What’s causing this decline? Slower economic growth in the developed world, higher interest rates, and weakness in China are all contributing factors. China, a major source of demand for steel and other commodities, is particularly affecting Australia’s largest export, iron ore, with prices down about a third this year. Iron ore export revenue is forecasted to fall to A$99 billion in the year ended 30 June 2026 from A$138 billion last year.
But it’s not just iron ore feeling the pressure. Prices for other resources important to the renewable energy transition, such as nickel and lithium, are also lower. A surge of supply from Indonesia has forced some Australian nickel mines to shut down.
Stay informed on the latest trends in the commodity market and understand how these developments can impact your finances and investments. From the effects of China’s economic slowdown to the implications for Australia’s export revenue, this article breaks down complex financial news into easy-to-understand insights.