Tuesday 1st October 2024: Market Technical Analysis and Trading Signals

Tuesday 1st October 2024: Market Technical Analysis and Trading Signals Review

Welcome to the Tuesday 1st October 2024: Market Technical Analysis and Trading Signals Review. In this detailed guide, we provide in-depth analysis on major financial assets, including forex pairs, indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Using a combination of advanced technical analysis, market momentum indicators, and trading signals, we offer insights into potential price movements and strategies to help traders and investors navigate the markets effectively.

Our technical analysis covers key chart patterns, candlestick formations, and important levels like pivot points, support, and resistance zones. We also incorporate technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands to support our forecasts and trading strategies.

Additionally, we’ve integrated upcoming economic events from the financial calendar to provide context on how macroeconomic data releases, speeches by central bank officials, and other high-impact events might influence the markets. For each asset, we offer clear trading signals to help you make informed decisions, whether you’re looking for bullish or bearish opportunities.

This comprehensive breakdown is ideal for day traders, swing traders, and long-term investors seeking actionable insights. Our analysis includes:

• Major forex pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and more.
• Indices: US30 (DJIA), DE40 (DAX), US500 (S&P 500).
• Commodities: Gold (XAU/USD), Oil (WTI/USD).
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD).

With interactive features like anchor links to specific assets and tables highlighting bullish and bearish trades, our content is designed for ease of navigation and engagement. Whether you are tracking intraday price movements or developing longer-term strategies, our trading signals and technical analysis will equip you with the knowledge you need to make confident trading decisions.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 101.02 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover, suggesting downward pressure.
    • Candlestick Patterns: Bearish engulfing pattern near the pivot confirms continuation of the bearish trend.
  • Chart Patterns: Double top near 101.02 strengthens the possibility of a bearish reversal.
• 1st Support: 100.20 (Multi-swing low support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement aligns with support.
  • Bollinger Bands: Price near the lower band, suggesting support.
• 1st Resistance: 101.86 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Consider selling on rallies near the pivot level, targeting support with a stop loss just above resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Weak PMI could further pressure the dollar, increasing the likelihood of a bearish move.

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EUR/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 1.1144 (Pullback resistance)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, indicating selling pressure.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover forming.
    • Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, signaling a reversal.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Evening star near the pivot signals a likely drop.
• 1st Support: 1.1077 (Overlap support with 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: Strong support formed by overlapping Fibonacci levels (61.8% retracement and 161.8% extension).
• 1st Resistance: 1.1208 (Swing-high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting the support level with a stop just above 1.1208.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• EUR – German Buba President Nagel speech: Hawkish remarks could offer temporary support, but technical bearish momentum remains.

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EUR/JPY

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 158.45 (Overlap support)
  • Bullish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Above 50, confirming upward momentum.
    • MACD: Bullish crossover, indicating further strength.
    • Candlestick Patterns: Bullish hammer pattern near support confirms buying pressure.
• 1st Support: 155.52 (Multi-swing low support)
  • Fibonacci Support: 38.2% retracement aligns with 155.52.
• 1st Resistance: 162.75 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bullish Trading Strategy: Buy on dips near the pivot, targeting resistance at 162.75.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• JPY – Consumer Confidence Index (Sep): A weak reading could further strengthen EUR/JPY as the yen weakens.

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EUR/GBP

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 0.8388 (Overlap resistance with 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, indicating a bearish trend.
    • MACD: Bearish divergence, signaling downside pressure.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bearish engulfing pattern near the pivot.
• 1st Support: 0.8316 (Multi-swing low support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 61.8% retracement level provides strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8453 (Overlap resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short positions near the pivot with a target at 0.8316.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• GBP – S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep): A weak PMI reading could push EUR/GBP lower, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

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GBP/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 1.3426 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, confirming bearish sentiment.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover.
    • Candlestick Patterns: Bearish harami pattern confirms the bearish outlook.
  • Chart Patterns: Rising wedge breakdown supports further downside.
• 1st Support: 1.3326 (Overlap support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 50% retracement strengthens support.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3467 (161.80% Fibonacci Extension)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short positions can be taken near 1.3426, targeting 1.3326.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• GBP – BoE’s Pill speech: Dovish commentary could reinforce the bearish momentum in GBP/USD.

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GBP/JPY

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 198.33 (Pullback resistance with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, signaling bearish momentum.
    • MACD: Bearish divergence.
    • Candlestick Patterns: Dark cloud cover near the pivot.
• 1st Support: 189.81 (Overlap support with 50% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 50% retracement strengthens this support zone.
• 1st Resistance: 195.98 (Swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting support at 189.81.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• JPY – Consumer Confidence Index (Sep): A weak consumer confidence index could weigh on the yen, supporting a bearish GBP/JPY outlook.

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USD/CHF

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 0.8481 (Swing high resistance with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, indicating bearish sentiment.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bearish engulfing pattern near pivot.
• 1st Support: 0.8404 (Multi-swing low support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 38.2% retracement aligns with support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.8544 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near 0.8481 with a target towards 0.8404.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – JOLTS Job Openings (Aug): A drop in job openings could weaken USD further.

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USD/JPY

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 144.65 (Pullback resistance with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, signaling bearish momentum.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Doji followed by a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling a reversal.
• 1st Support: 142.15 (Multi-swing low support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 50% retracement aligns with this support.
• 1st Resistance: 147.18 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near 144.65, targeting support at 142.15.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• JPY – Consumer Confidence Index (Sep): A weaker-than-expected report could provide a short-term lift to USD/JPY, though overall bearishness remains.

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USD/CAD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 1.3545 (Overlap resistance with Fibonacci confluence)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Neutral but close to overbought territory.
    • MACD: Bearish divergence.
    • Ichimoku Cloud: Price remains below the cloud, confirming bearish momentum.
• 1st Support: 1.3463 (Pullback support with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 61.8% retracement provides strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 1.3635 (Swing-high resistance with 100% Fibonacci projection)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near 1.3545, targeting support at 1.3463.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• CAD – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): A weak PMI could weigh on CAD, delaying the bearish move.

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AUD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 0.6993 (Overlap resistance with 78.6% Fibonacci projection)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Approaching overbought territory.
    • MACD: Weakening bullish momentum.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Doji near the pivot followed by a bearish engulfing pattern.
• 1st Support: 0.6895 (Pullback support)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 38.2% retracement provides strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 0.7136 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting 0.6895.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• AUD – RBA Commodity Index (YoY) (Sep): A negative report could pressure AUD, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

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NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 0.6402 (Swing-high resistance with 61.8% Fibonacci projection)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Overbought.
    • MACD: Bullish momentum weakening.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Evening star near the pivot signals a reversal.
• 1st Support: 0.6254 (Overlap support with 50% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Support: Strong support from Fibonacci levels.
• 1st Resistance: 0.6530 (Multi-swing high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near 0.6402, targeting 0.6254.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• NZD – GDT Price Index: A weak dairy auction could pressure NZD lower.

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US30 (DJIA)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 42,654.55 (Swing-high resistance with Fibonacci confluence)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Overbought.
    • MACD: Bullish but weakening.
  • Chart Patterns: Double top suggests a potential reversal.
• 1st Support: 41,855.66 (Overlap support)
  • Fibonacci Support: 38.2% retracement aligns with the first support.
• 1st Resistance: 43,214.73 (Fibonacci resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting the first support at 41,855.66.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): A weak PMI report could drive US30 lower.

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DE40 (DAX)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 19,478.30 (Pullback resistance with Fibonacci confluence)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Overbought.
    • MACD: Bullish but weakening.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Shooting star pattern near the pivot.
• 1st Support: 19,241.10 (Pullback support with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: Key support level at 23.6% retracement.
• 1st Resistance: 19,740.39 (Fibonacci resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting support at 19,241.10.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• EUR – HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Weak PMI could reinforce bearish sentiment in DAX.

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US500 (S&P 500)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 5,832.00 (Resistance with Fibonacci confluence)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Overbought.
    • MACD: Bullish but weakening.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bearish engulfing pattern near pivot.
• 1st Support: 5,669.89 (Pullback support with Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Support: 23.6% retracement provides strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 5,951.18 (100% Fibonacci projection)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near the pivot, targeting support at 5,669.89.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Weak PMI could negatively affect US500.

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BTC/USD (Bitcoin)

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 62,643.28 (Pullback support)
  • Bullish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Approaching oversold.
    • MACD: Bullish divergence.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bullish hammer near support.
• 1st Support: 59,388.63 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Support: Strong support from Fibonacci levels.
• 1st Resistance: 66,136.49 (Swing-high resistance)
  • Bullish Trading Strategy: Buy near the pivot, targeting resistance at 66,136.49.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Weak US data could support BTC as the USD weakens.

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ETH/USD (Ethereum)

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 2,562.83 (Overlap support)
  • Bullish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Approaching oversold.
    • MACD: Bullish divergence.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bullish engulfing pattern.
• 1st Support: 2,454.11 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Fibonacci Support: Strong support at the 50% level.
• 1st Resistance: 2,701.76 (Multi-swing-high resistance)
  • Bullish Trading Strategy: Buy near the pivot, targeting resistance at 2,701.76.

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WTI/USD (Oil)

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 68.13 (Overlap support)
  • Bullish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Approaching neutral levels, indicating possible upward momentum.
    • MACD: Bullish divergence forming.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Bullish engulfing pattern near support.
• 1st Support: 66.04 (Swing-low support)
  • Fibonacci Support: 38.2% retracement offers strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 71.24 (Pullback resistance with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
  • Bullish Trading Strategy: Buy near the pivot, targeting 71.24.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 27): If stockpiles drop, it could push oil prices higher due to supply constraints.

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XAU/USD (Gold)

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish

Detailed Analysis:

• Pivot: 2,645.00 (Pullback resistance)
  • Bearish Technical Indicators:
    • RSI: Below 50, confirming bearish momentum.
    • MACD: Bearish crossover.
  • Candlestick Patterns: Evening star near pivot.
• 1st Support: 2,600.00 (Pullback support with Fibonacci confluence)
  • Fibonacci Confluence: 38.2% and 61.8% retracement provide strong support.
• 1st Resistance: 2,685.58 (Swing-high resistance)
  • Bearish Trading Strategy: Short near 2,645.00 with a target at 2,600.00.

Upcoming Economic Events Impact:

• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Strong data could push USD higher, pressuring gold further.

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