Today’s analysis focuses on key asset movements influenced by significant economic events. With the release of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Eurozone PMI data, and Swiss inflation reports, the forex and commodities markets are expected to experience heightened volatility. Traders should watch closely for market reactions to these pivotal data releases, as they could trigger new trends or reinforce current momentum. Additionally, commodities like oil and gold may react to shifts in USD sentiment and global economic outlooks. This in-depth review outlines critical technical levels and strategies to navigate today’s market action.
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DXY (US Dollar Index)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Pivot: 101.15
- 1st Support: 100.20 – Multi-swing low support, likely to act as a strong area of buying interest.
- 1st Resistance: 102.29 – Overlap resistance near the 127.20% Fibonacci extension, signifying selling pressure.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Trending above 60, showing strength in bullish momentum.
- MACD: A bullish crossover has formed, reinforcing continued upward movement.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 127.20% Fibonacci extension is acting as resistance near the 1st resistance level, suggesting selling pressure at 102.29.
- Candlestick Patterns: Bullish engulfing on the daily chart signals the possibility of a sustained bullish move.
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD Jobless Claims (Sep 27): A higher-than-expected number of claims could weaken the USD, while fewer claims would strengthen the DXY, pushing it toward the 1st resistance.
EUR/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 1.1081
- 1st Support: 1.0990 – Pullback support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement, offering strong demand.
- 1st Resistance: 1.1208 – Swing high resistance where sellers are expected to enter.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Currently under 40, indicating strong bearish sentiment.
- MACD: Showing bearish divergence, signaling a potential downward move.
- Moving Averages: The price is below the 50-day SMA, confirming a downtrend.
- Chart Patterns: A bearish flag pattern is developing, suggesting further downside momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought condition signals potential downside reversal.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- EUR HCOB Services PMI (Sep): Any reading below the expected 54.0 could pressure the EUR, pushing EUR/USD lower.
EUR/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Pivot: 160.71
- 1st Support: 158.28 – Overlap support, expected to attract buyers at this level.
- 1st Resistance: 163.78 – Multi-swing high resistance where the price might encounter selling pressure.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Above 55, suggesting continued bullish strength.
- Fibonacci Extension: Resistance at 163.78 aligns with the 161.8% extension, signaling potential for reversal.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading above the cloud, confirming bullish momentum.
- Candlestick Patterns: Morning star pattern observed on the 4-hour chart, signaling potential upside continuation.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- JPY CFTC Positioning Data: Increased speculative interest in the yen could affect EUR/JPY’s short-term direction, but a weakening JPY could help sustain the bullish momentum in EUR/JPY.
EUR/GBP
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 0.8388
- 1st Support: 0.8316 – Multi-swing low support expected to hold.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8453 – Overlap resistance likely to limit upside moves.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Below 45, indicating a bearish bias.
- MACD: Negative crossover, reinforcing the bearish forecast.
- Chart Patterns: A head-and-shoulders pattern is visible, suggesting further downside potential.
- Stochastic Oscillator: In the oversold zone, signaling a short-term bounce but overall downward pressure remains.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- EUR Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY, MoM): Higher-than-expected inflation data could push EUR/GBP lower due to its negative impact on growth prospects, reinforcing the bearish forecast.
GBP/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 1.3316
- 1st Support: 1.3230 – Strong support near 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3426 – Multi-swing high resistance where sellers might re-enter.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Trending below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.20% retracement aligns with the pivot, reinforcing the importance of this resistance level.
- Chart Patterns: A bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart signals further downside potential.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is testing the lower band, suggesting a short-term reversal but maintaining the overall bearish structure.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- GBP S&P Global/CIPS PMI: Weaker-than-expected PMI data may push GBP/USD lower as it reflects deteriorating economic conditions in the UK.
GBP/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Pivot: 193.33
- 1st Support: 189.81 – Overlap support aligned with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 195.98 – Swing high resistance where sellers are expected.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Above 60, confirming bullish strength.
- MACD: Positive crossover, reinforcing the potential for further gains.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.8% retracement aligns with the 1st support, offering a strong area for a potential bounce.
- Candlestick Patterns: Bullish engulfing on the 4-hour chart suggests continued upward momentum.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- JPY CFTC Net Positions: Speculative positioning data may affect short-term trends in GBP/JPY, with increased yen shorts providing support for GBP/JPY’s bullish outlook.
USD/CHF
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Pivot: 0.8481
- 1st Support: 0.8422 – Pullback support aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8544 – Swing high resistance where sellers may re-enter.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Trending above 50, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price remains above the cloud, confirming the bullish outlook.
- Fibonacci Levels: Support at the 61.8% retracement level adds strength to the upward move.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- CHF CPI (YoY, MoM): A lower-than-expected inflation rate may weaken CHF, pushing USD/CHF higher toward its 1st resistance.
USD/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Pivot: 145.79
- 1st Support: 144.27 – Pullback support near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 147.86 – Pullback resistance near the 127.20% Fibonacci extension.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Above 55, indicating bullish momentum.
- Fibonacci Extension: The 127.20% extension aligns with the 1st resistance, signaling potential resistance.
- Candlestick Patterns: Morning star pattern on the daily chart signals potential for upward continuation.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD ISM Services PMI: Higher-than-expected PMI readings could push USD/JPY higher, given the strength in the US services sector.
Interactive Table: Key Trades for October 3rd, 2024
| Asset | Potential Direction | Pivot | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | Bullish | 101.15 | 100.20 (Support) | 102.29 (Resistance) | Bullish continuation likely. |
| EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1081 | 1.0990 (Support) | 1.1208 (Resistance) | Bearish continuation towards 1st support. |
| EUR/JPY | Bullish | 160.71 | 158.28 (Support) | 163.78 (Resistance) | Bullish trend intact; potential breakout. |
| GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3316 | 1.3230 (Support) | 1.3426 (Resistance) | Bearish continuation off pivot. |
USD/CAD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 1.3540
- 1st Support: 1.3473 – Pullback support aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a key demand zone.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3572 – Multi-swing high resistance, signaling a potential area for sellers to step in.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: The RSI is hovering around 50, reflecting a neutral market condition.
- MACD: The histogram is near zero, indicating the lack of strong momentum in either direction.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 50% Fibonacci retracement near the 1st support provides a solid base for a potential reversal.
- Chart Patterns: A potential head-and-shoulders pattern suggests the possibility of a bearish reversal.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is nearing the upper band, which could signal a short-term pullback.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD Initial Jobless Claims: Higher-than-expected claims may weigh on USD/CAD, causing a bearish reversal.
- CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: A stronger PMI reading would support the CAD and further push USD/CAD lower toward the 1st support.
AUD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 0.6807
- 1st Support: 0.6749 – Overlap support aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, providing a solid floor.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6937 – Swing high resistance where sellers may re-enter the market.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: RSI is slightly below 50, reflecting neutral to mildly bullish sentiment.
- MACD: The histogram shows early signs of a potential bullish crossover.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 61.8% retracement level acts as strong support, where buying pressure may emerge.
- Candlestick Patterns: A bullish hammer formed near the support level, indicating a potential reversal.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price is approaching the cloud’s upper boundary, which could act as dynamic resistance in the near term.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- AUD Home Loans (Aug): A positive reading could fuel the Aussie dollar and drive AUD/USD higher toward the 1st resistance at 0.6937.
NZD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 0.6254
- 1st Support: 0.6155 – Overlap support aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, providing a key downside target.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6304 – Overlap resistance, expected to limit upward movements.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Currently below 40, signaling strong bearish momentum.
- MACD: Bearish crossover confirms the downward trajectory.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement provides a critical support level where price might find some relief.
- Candlestick Patterns: A bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside is likely.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a potential short-term pullback before resuming the downtrend.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- NZD CFTC Net Positions: Changes in speculative positions could influence the NZD’s short-term direction, with bearish sentiment expected to continue driving the pair lower.
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 41,855.66
- 1st Support: 41,432.30 – Overlap support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement, a key level for buyers.
- 1st Resistance: 42,654.55 – Swing high resistance aligned with 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Neutral, around 50, indicating the absence of strong directional bias.
- MACD: Potential bullish crossover forming, suggesting upside potential.
- Fibonacci Extension: The 161.8% extension aligns with the 1st resistance level, providing a natural area for a reversal or consolidation.
- Candlestick Patterns: Morning star pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is trading near the middle band, suggesting a consolidation phase before further bullish moves.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD Nonfarm Payrolls: A strong NFP reading could provide further support for the US30, pushing it toward the 1st resistance at 42,654.55.
DE40 (DAX)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 19,049.50
- 1st Support: 18,715.40 – Pullback support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, offering a strong level for buyers.
- 1st Resistance: 19,493.70 – Swing high resistance, reinforced by two 161.8% Fibonacci extensions.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Currently neutral, around 50, indicating the lack of a strong trend.
- MACD: The histogram shows early signs of a bullish divergence, hinting at potential upside.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.8% level provides strong support, while resistance aligns with key Fibonacci extension levels.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price is within the cloud, suggesting indecision but favoring a bullish breakout.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- EUR HCOB Services PMI (Sep): A stronger-than-expected reading could boost the DAX, pushing the index toward the 1st resistance level.
US500 (S&P 500)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 5,669.89
- 1st Support: 5,600.60 – Overlap support aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 5,767.00 – Swing high resistance, marking a potential reversal zone.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Trending near 50, indicating a neutral sentiment but showing signs of potential bullish divergence.
- MACD: A bullish crossover is in progress, signaling further upside potential.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 50% retracement level acts as a strong support zone where buyers may step in.
- Candlestick Patterns: A bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart supports the forecast for continued upside.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD ISM Services PMI (Sep): A strong reading could further fuel the US500, pushing it toward the 1st resistance at 5,767.00.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 59,421.33
- 1st Support: 57,935.37 – Overlap support aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 63,092.43 – Pullback resistance aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Below 40, indicating a bearish bias, but nearing oversold levels.
- MACD: Bearish crossover is still active but showing signs of slowing down.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.8% level acts as strong support, where buyers could begin to enter.
- Chart Patterns: Bullish engulfing on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential reversal.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD Nonfarm Payrolls: A strong reading may strengthen the USD and push Bitcoin lower, but if BTC holds above the support, it could begin a recovery rally.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 2,488.71
- 1st Support: 2,271.00 – Pullback support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, offering a critical level for buyers.
- 1st Resistance: 2,562.83 – Overlap resistance aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key reversal point.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Below 45, signaling bearish momentum.
- MACD: A bearish divergence is observed, reinforcing the downside forecast.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 61.8% level aligns with resistance, marking a strong sell zone.
- Candlestick Patterns: A bearish engulfing pattern signals potential continuation of the downtrend.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD Factory Orders: Weak factory orders could negatively impact the USD and provide a boost to ETH, but overall bearish momentum is likely to prevail.
WTI/USD (Oil)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Pivot: 73.03
- 1st Support: 69.89 – Overlap support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 74.79 – Overlap resistance aligned with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Neutral at around 50, indicating the lack of clear momentum.
- MACD: A bearish divergence is forming, suggesting downside risk.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 127.20% Fibonacci extension at resistance indicates a potential reversal zone.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading below the cloud, signaling bearish momentum.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Any supply glut in the energy sector could pressure WTI further, pushing prices toward the 1st support at 69.89.
XAU/USD (Gold)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Pivot: 2,672.77
- 1st Support: 2,631.77 – Overlap support where buyers are expected.
- 1st Resistance: 2,701.21 – 127.20% Fibonacci extension resistance, a key level for sellers.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
- RSI: Below 40, showing strong bearish momentum.
- MACD: Bearish crossover continues to suggest downside risk.
- Fibonacci Levels: The 127.20% Fibonacci extension at the 1st resistance offers a significant reversal zone.
- Chart Patterns: A bearish flag pattern on the daily chart signals the potential for further downside.
Upcoming Economic Events:
- USD ISM Services PMI (Sep): A strong reading could push the USD higher, weakening XAU/USD and driving the price toward the 1st support.
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